CIK62

The next 8 days are averaging 32degs.(26/37), or -2. Could get the to the 60's by the 17th.-19th. period. EURO says at that time the AO will be +6, the NAO +4, EPO +3, PNA -3, and the WPO just a bit +. So Read'em and Weep. There is no 10-Day snow showing to speak of. Reached 56 here yesterday AM before quick drop. Today: 28-31, wind nw. and breezy till sunset, clouds clearing early, 18 by tomorrow AM. 25*(63%RH) here at 6am. 24* at 6:30am. 23* at 7:30am. 27* at Noon. Reached 29* at 3pm.

T looks OK here for the next 30 days average. There are not even any 5-Day BN periods contained within span. It is gradually warming overall, especially west of the Mississippi. However it did look like BN precipitation through the 19th.

The next 8 days are averaging 32degs.(26/37) or -2. Reached 50 here yesterday at midnight----44/45 most of the day. Today: Falling T's to 32 by 7pm---just as precip is stopping, wind w. to n. and breezy later, 21 by tomorrow AM. No snow till the 13th, if then it seems. Sidelight: Smoke from 10-60 Gas Explosion and resulting fire at 67, 69, 71 Bay 35th. St., Brooklyn--- hung low over area to the east and north of fire, mixing with the low clouds. No 10-45's Code 1---, occupants of original fire building not home---fire suspicious. Started 7:08am, mostly over now, 8:30am. 56*!(99%RH) here at 6am. 29.82". 51* at 8am. 42* at 8:30am and dropping faster than the Stock Market-----JP would commit suicide it this occurs on his watch! 41* 29.88"^ at 9am. 40* at Noon. 36* at 1pm. 34* at 6pm. 32* at 8pm, Finally.

The next 8 days are averaging 31degs.(26/36) or -3. Reached 48 here yesterday. Today: 42-48----upper 30's by tomorrow AM, wind s. to e. and n. by tomorrow AM., rain all day. Highlight>>>26, freezing rain in Dallas this AM, snow in PM and 15 tomorrow AM for them from this system, 40's by weekend. No real snow for 10 days on any model, which were warmer today anyway. 43*(99%RH) here at 6am-murky, but visibility is about 3.0mi. 44* at 7am.

Basically 27 hours of rain starting around 4am this morning (Thurs) ----changing to 6 hours or so of Freezing Rain Friday AM----changing quickly early Friday evening to Sleet/Snow and Snow Flurries.

Warmer than yesterday overall---especially in the Dakotas and Montana. Independently, SD has added another 10 days to winter from his Feb. 10 earlier prediction---based on some more warming to the stratosphere.

The next 8 days of February are averaging 30degs.(24/35) or -4. Reached 44 here yesterday. Today: 44-47, wind e. to s., cloudy. No real snow showing for the next 10 days. Maybe on SuperBall Sunday! 35*(84%RH) here at 6am. 37* at 8am. 40* at 9am. 42* at 9:30am. 47* at 11am. 48* at 1pm. 44* at 5pm and a foggy, soggy mess---1/4mi. visibility.

The GFS has lost all the fun stuff I showed this AM. (at least the snow). Now it looks like it will take all three models a full 10 days each to achieve 1" or 2" of total snow when added together! Curses foiled again.

A Cornucopia of Potpourri on the GFS. An eclectic mix of winter delights and it has almost 4" of liquid equivalent to produce whatever:

Ad-Free Secondary Group 4.2k Location:ConeyIsland Moved from being a January post by mistake this AM.. Posted 5 hours ago January ended at 30.3[-3.4] with 15.3"[+6.5"] of snow. The first 8 days of February are averaging 25degs.(18/32) or -9. Reached 38* here yesterday. Today: 35-37, wind e., m. clear---cloudy late, little T change tonight. 26*(60%RH) here at 6am. 31* at 9am. 36* at Noon. 39* at 1pm. Reached 44* at 4pm. 37* at 8pm.

Cold February on the CFS, but only a wet one till about the 17th. March is showing now as BN and Dry.

The last day of January is averaging 25degs.(24/30) or -8. It was suppose to start at single digits this AM according to EURO,CMC---what happened? Storm total from Saturday storm was 8.5"(NYC) with 0.90" liquid equivalent---what happened to the predicted 15:1 ratios? First 10 days of February are averaging 30(24/35)or -4 and little snow. Month to date is 30.5[-3.2]. January will end at 30.3[-3.4]. Reached 27 yesterday. Today: 28-32, wind e., p. cloudy. 24*(54%RH) here at 6am. 28* at 9am. 30* at 10am. 32 at 11am. 33* at Noon. Reached 38* at 4:30pm. 30* at 8pm.

The last two days of January are averaging 20degs.(12/28), or -13. Month to date is 30.9[-2.8]. January should end at 30.2[-3.5]. Reached 30 yesterday at midnight. Was 17 most of the PM. Today: 23-27, wind w. and breezy till Noon, m. clear, about 15 tomorrow AM. Wild T swings in February but no good storms showing yet. 13*(58%RH) here at 6am. Reached 27* at 3:30pm.

The last 3 days of January are averaging 19degs.(13/25) or -14. Month to date is 31.2[-2.3]. January should end at 30.0[-3.7]. Reached 37 here yesterday. Today: 21-23, down to 14 tomorrow AM., SNOW till 4pm., wind n. to nw. and gusty till tomorrow AM. 23*(99%RH) SNOW, WIND here at 6am.-----1005mb. {was 30* at midnite} 22* at 7am. 19* at 8am. 18* at 9am----1006mb. 17* at 10am. 17* at Noon---1005mb. 16* at 9pm.

The last 4 days of January are averaging 24degs.(18/30), or -9. Month to date is 31.3[-2.4]. January should end at 30.4[-3.3]. Reached 34 here yesterday. Today: 32-34, wind w. to n. to ne., cloudy, some early snow starting at 2pm. Gusty winds after midnight tonight. WINTER STORM WARNING is in effect. Latest Snow Totals: NYC NAM 20", EURO 10", CMC 9", GFS 7" Cobb Snow Method: JFK,LGA......... NAM 23", 18" GFS 9", 7" 32*(53%RH) here at 6am. Snow already at 8am, 32*. 33* at 10am. 34* at Noon. 36* at 1pm. 37* at 2pm. 31* at 11pm and decent snow going, ground white, 1". 30* at 11:30pm. Not directly part of storm:

Joe4alb condolences for the loss of your dad. Joe Bastardi (WeatherBell and AccuWeather) said a few days ago both of his parents just died---on the same day apparently. Hang in there and keep swinging.

COBB SNOW METHOD 12Z Cycle Nam LGA 10" JFK 14" GFS LGA T JFK 1" since it has no liquid equivalent to work with! That Conn. earthquake was near CosCob at 12:38pm and was just 1.4. Prior to Irene in 2011 there was a quake near Washington DC and it damaged the Washington Monument.

Latest Snow Totals Outlooks: Thurs AM. GFS and Ensemble Trace National Blend of Models 2"-4" EURO 4" NAM 8" CMC 15" but Ensemble is much less.

The last 5 days of January are averaging 26degs.(20/32)or -7. Month to date is 31.5[-2.3]. January should end at 30.6[-3.1] Reached 28 here yesterday. Today: 29-31, wind s. to w., m. clear then cloudy overnight, 28 tomorrow AM. Storm: CMC is champ today at 15". GFS develops too late. The NAM is like a bad girlfriend. The EURO has a piece of cold dead meat over a black eye. These other models are really threatening to go out of the picture. It's been an insult to the intelligence and pocketbook to follow this system---but educational. By pocketbook, I mean your tax dollars that went to the Commerce Dept. for model improvements etc. The C.D. wiped its ass with those dollars. AUDITS Please. Lol! 21*(43%RH) here at 6am. 26* at 9am. 29* at Noon. 32* at 2pm. 34* at 4pm.

The Champ just became one of the Chimps. The heaviest snowfall area has shifted from Cape May to Eastern LI in two runs. I have been cut in half from yesterday's 18". Could be game over. NWS hardly even mentioned snow and certainly not a blizzard possibility on KWO-35 this morning. This run makes them look like stars.

The last 6 days of January are averaging 26degs.(20/31) or -7. Month to date is 31.8[-2.0]. January should end at 30.6[-3.1]. Reached 44 here yesterday. Today: 27-30, wind nw. and breezy at times, few clouds, 18 by tomorrow AM. EURO still the champ with weekend storm, but is somewhat further ne. of yesterday's runs. 18" for me, but quickly down to 12" for Newark. The chimps are CMC 10", GFS 4". 23*(50%RH) here at 6am. 22* at 7am. 25* at Noon. 28* at 3pm.

EURO still on the beam: Look at the 30" Cape May wipe out or white out. Anyone know what the single storm snow total record is for Cape May? Just trying to judge if this run is legit based on history. Maybe 1899 Blizzard?

The 0Z EURO is a bone crusher, but note on the 48hr. snow totals the E-W gradient. We need tomorrow's 12Z to look like this and we could be set.

The last 7 days of January are averaging 27degs.(22/32) or -6. Month to date is 31.7[-2.1]. January should end at 30.6[-3.1]. Reached 38 at 11:59pm yesterday---most of PM was near 35. Today: 40-42 falling late, 23 by tomorrow AM., wind w. to nw., cloudy then clearing. Today its the EURO[968mb, BM Low] that has picked up the fumble---as it has the 20" and 40mph winds. The other two clumbzies have 2". This combination changes every day. 37*(71%RH) here at 6am. 38* at 9am. 44* at 2pm. 35* at 8pm. 30* at 11pm.

The last 8 days of January are averaging 26degs.(21/31) or -7. Month to date is 31.7[-2.1]. January should end at 30.5[-3.2]. Reached 38 here yesterday. Today: T's pretty steady in mid 30's. Wind n. to s. late, m. cloudy. CMC {0Z}has the end of month storm today. {06Z}GFS looks similar. The football is still loose on the field. 31*(80%RH) here at 6am. 30* at 6:30am. 29* at 8am. 35* at Noon.