CIK62

A Jolly Good Miss: A dead calm suddenly got a little breeze to it, as showers passed to the north. Was watching fireworks here in CI 9:45pm-10:05pm. https://imgur.com/a/xubblKI

The last 3 days of July are averaging 80degs.(72/89) or +2. Month to date is 79.6[+2.1]. July should end at 79.7[+2.2]. Reached 82 here yesterday. Today: 85-90, p. cloudy, rain/TS about 10pm?, 72 tomorrow AM. 75*(85%RH) here at 7am. 80* at 11am. 81* at Noon. 85* at 4pm. 80* at 9pm.

HRRR and NAM3km are misses this evening and show a complete collapse for tomorrow's event just as it arrives here---say 10pm +/- an hour.

The last 4 days of July are averaging 82degs.(74/91) or +4. Month to date is 79.6[+2.1]. July should end at 79.9[+2.4]. Reached 81 here yesterday. Today: 84-88, wind ne., m. cloudy, 75 tomorrow AM. 73*(98%RH) here at 7am- some fog, 2mi. 80* at 11am. Low 80's all PM with 80%+RH and wind blown FOG from se.

Both August and September look like this pressure wise: How do you have an AN Hurricane Season with this P pattern? The precipitation stays BN along the whole coastal region from the GOM and the whole EC. Not a leg to stand on or a cloud formation to name ie. "Colin". GOM favored, but to what end?

The last 5 days of July are averaging 82degs.[74/90] or +4. The month to date is 79.7[+2.2]. July should end at 80.0[+2.5]. Reached 82 here yesterday. Today: 82-86, wind s., p. cloudy. 75*(63%RH) here at 7am. 78* at Noon. 80* at 2pm. 81* at 3pm.

CRAZIEST GFS RUN IN HISTORY? Get Me A Ticket For a Jet Plane..................to Dallas!

The next 8 days are averaging 82degs.(74/90) or +4. Month to date is 79.8[+2.3]. July should end at 80.2[+2.7]. Reached 91 here late, 88 before TS. lol Today: 82-88, p. sunny, wind sw.-variable, breezy. Clouds this week hold down T till the northern tier HW takes over Week 1 of August. Could reach us too. 74*(65%RH) here at 7am. 77* at 9am. 80* at Noon. 79* at 12:30pm. 82* at 3pm.

Soon it is going to be Iowa Burn Up the Crops Time. They need a 118 for a new All-Time Iowa high T...........

BURN YOUR FERN TIME DURING WEEK 1 OF AUGUST?

The last 7 days of July are averaging 83degs.(75/92) or +5. Month to date is 79.8[+2.3]. July should end at 80.5[+3.0]. Reached 92 here late yesterday. Today: 85-89, wind w., wind s., breezy, cloudy, rain late. 81*(85%RH) here at 7am. 83*(78%RH) at 9am. 86* at Noon. Disappointing TS ^^^ around 3pm.....was 88* but down to 79* at 3:30pm. Got up to 90* at 5:15pm. ^^^Looked like this:

Just 92* here today, 1500' from the ocean. 79*(83%RH) here at 7am. 83*(59%RH) at 9am. 85* at Noon. 89* at 1pm. 90* at 1:30pm. 91* at 2pm. Same T collapse as yesterday, plus high thin clouds have appeared......86* at 3pm. 85*(75%RH) at 4pm---feels like 95*. Back to 90* at 7pm. New high for the day of 92* near 7:30pm. 86*(72%RH) at 11pm---feels like 96*. SREF is 0.75" for tomorrow, up from 0.60" on this morning's run.

The last 8 days of July are averaging 83degs.(74/93) or +5. The month to date is 79.5[+2.1]. July should end at 80.4[+2.9]. Reached 91 here yesterday bet. 1pm-2pm---then fell back to mid 80's. Today: 94-99, wind w., few clouds, 78 tomorrow AM. GFS Ens. says the 95-101 regime ends today, but the next 15 are still +2 to +4. 79*(83%RH) here at 7am. 83*(59%RH) at 9am. 85* at Noon. 89* at 1pm. 90* at 1:30pm. 91* at 2pm. Same T collapse as yesterday, plus high thin clouds have appeared......86* at 3pm. 85*(75%RH) at 4pm---feels like 95*. Back to 90* at 7pm. New high for the day of 92* near 7:30pm. 86*(72%RH) at 11pm---feels like 96*.

https://imgur.com/a/SZ8WhNi

The next 8 days are averaging 84degs.(75/93) or +6. Month to date is 79.2[+1.8]. Should be 80.5[+2.9] by the 31st. Reached 89 here yesterday at 1pm. Today: 96-101, wind w. to sw. and breezy, m. sunny. Next week's T's kept down mostly by clouds---plus any rain that happens---so 87-92 will do it? 80*(72%RH) here at 7am. 83* at 8am. 84*(52%RH) at 9am. 86*(42%RH) at 10am. 87* at 11am. back to 86*(48%RH) at Noon. Made it! 90* at 2pm. (I walked 1500 feet north, instead of south (to go to the shopping center) and the environment was radically different from the base of my building. 1500 feet south puts me in the Atlantic and 80* pis water....lol! 91* at 2:15pm but back down to 87* at 3pm. Rest of day spent between 88*-84* at 8pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 87degs.(78/96) or +9. Month to date is 78.9[+1.5]. Should be 81.0[+3.4] by the 30th. Reached 99 here late yesterday. Today: 95-100, wind w. to sw., breezy late, m. sunny. High T at EWR is +6 over NYC for the last 3 days. Why? The Tamer (than the OP) GFS Ens.: This looks like a solid +6 by sight, on the next 16days. A Bore by next Tues. 81*(66%RH) here at 7am. 82* at 7:15am. 84* at 8am. 85*(52%RH) at 9am. T very stable for the last 3 hours 86* at Noon. 89*/88* at 2pm(50%-56%RH). 85* at 3:30pm. 86*/85* at 5pm. 82*70%RH) at 6pm. Back to 87* at 7pm.

Well, I reached 99* at 7:15pm today as heat collected on my high rise balcony. Here is a summary of today's T's here. [Better to explain the 80 at NYC while EWR was at 100 at the same time.] The passing rain does not seem to explain this. The leaves stayed wet maybe? NYC ended at 91. 78*(90%RH) here at 7am. 80* at 7:30am. 82*(83%RH) at 9am. 83*/84* basically from 10am to Noon. Down to 81* at 1pm as storms passed well to the north. 86* at 3pm. 90* at 3:15pm. 91* at 3:30pm. 94*(54%RH) at 4pm---feels like 106. 97*(38%) at 6pm---feels like 102. 98*(38%RH) at 7pm. Reached 99* at 7:30pm. 90* at 9pm. 89* at 10pm. There was no rain here. Thunder was faint.

Why post these ridiculous MOS'? Why does the model keep producing them? I must say I was early in indicating possible record T's with this exaggerated output. It has some value. I might ask why T's for EWR are shown.....just to point out how silly they are. Yesterday with EWR at 94 other nearby stations had 106 and 92 atst. Now reconcile that! I was 89 yesterday and 96 the day before because of a favorable wind direction for me. My thermometer is never in the sun---but heat can accumulate on a high rise balcony facing westward. btw: I hear it's 6042K on the surface of the sun. Just popped up and going northeast maybe?: I am down to 82* at 12:30pm, high so far just 84*. 90 minutes later: My T down to 81* but no rain or even sound of thunder here. Here comes another miss for me:

If your thermometers do not melt----you will. Some rain/clouds next week may hold down these insane T's, which are higher than those at KEWR:

The next 8 days are averaging 86degs.(77/96) or +8. Month to date is 78.7[+1.3]. Should be 80.8[+3.1] by the 29th. Reached just 89 here yesterday. Today: 90-95, wind sw., p. cloudy, 78 tomorrow. No rain till Mon./Tues. GFS reaches 90+ 15 times in the next 16 days. Where is the Hurricane Season in all this? 78*(90%RH) here at 7am. 80* at 7:30am. 82*(83%RH) at 9am. 83*/84* basically from 10am to Noon. Down to 81* at 1pm as storms passed well to the north. 86* at 3pm. 90* at 3:15pm. 91* at 3:30pm. 94*(54%RH) at 4pm---feels like 106. 97*(38%) at 6pm---feels like 102. 98*(38%RH) at 7pm. Reached 99* at 7:30pm. 90* at 9pm. 89* at 10pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 86degs.(76/96) or +8. Month to date is 78.3[+0.9]. Should be 80.6[+3.0] by the 28th. Reached 96 here yesterday. Today: 94-99, wind w. to sw. and breezy, few clouds, 80 tomorrow AM. 90 in Newark by 10am! I still have 82 in CI: Past 6 Hours Observations for EWR MOST RECENT DATA: 10am edt 20-JUL-22 NEWARK INTL ARPT, NJ ( 30') LAT=40.70N LON= 74.17W STA TMP DP RH WD WS G PRS ALT PCPN CLOUD LEVELS HGT TYP VIS WX EWR 5am 78 65 63 250 7 080 2977 130 SCT 250 SCT 10 6am 76 65 68 230 6 083 2978 120 SCT 250 SCT 10 7am 78 66 66 230 6 087 2979 130 SCT 250 SCT 10 8am 82 66 57 230 5 089 2980 200 SCT 250 SCT 10 9am 86 67 52 270 5 090 2980 200 SCT 250 SCT 10 10am 90 66 44 000 0 086 2979 45 SCT 200 SCT 250 SCT 10 EWR 6 temps: high= 90 at 10am low= 76 at 6am mean= 81.6 precip= 0.00 11am 93 67 41 000 3 085 2978 200 SCT 10 12pm 94 68 42 000 0 082 2977 50 SCT 10 EWR 6 temps: high= 94 at 12pm low= 78 at 7am mean= 87.1 precip= 0.00 1pm 98 65 33 260 11 076 2976 60 SCT HI ??? 10 EWR 6 temps: high= 98 at 1pm low= 82 at 8am mean= 90.5 precip= 0.00 1354 99 65 32 240 13 2974 65 SCT 110 SCT HI ??? 10 2pm 98 64 32 070 2974 65 SCT 110 SCT HI ??? 10 EWR 6 temps: high= 99 at 1354 low= 86 at 9am mean= 93.1 precip= 0.00 4pm 96 64 34 070 4 060 2971 75 SCT 100 SCT 130eSCT 10 5pm 97 63 32 220 9 055 2969 70 SCT 95 SCT HI ??? 10 EWR 6 temps: high= 99 at 1354 low= 94 at 12pm mean= 96.6 precip= 0.00 Ne wark's 100 Apparently Stymied Today! 78*(72%RH) here at 7am. 80* at 8am. 82*(70%RH) at 9am. 85*(60%RH) at Noon. 88*(55%RH) at 1pm. 89* at 1:30pm. 86*(62%RH) at 2pm. 85*(65%RH) at 3pm. Basically 87* after 3pm. 87* at 9pm.

Enjoy the brief break next Monday. So no 100's for us over the next 7?

The next 8 days are averaging 87degs.(77/98) or +9. Even the EURO has the 100's this time. Month to date is 78.1[+0.8]. Should be 80.9[+3.4] by the 27th. Reached 82 here yesterday and just a bit of rain at 7pm. Mostly a miss Sat.-Mon. with the rain/TS. Today: 89-93, wind w.---breezy in PM, m. sunny, 77 tomorrow AM. Just an aside......the Hurricane Season looks dead through October on the CFSv2. Other outputs do not look BN in Pressure or AN in Precipitation anywhere from the GOM to New England, either. >>>>>>>> COMMENTS? 74*(88%RH) here at 7am. 76* at 8am. 78* at 9am. 80* at 10:30am. 83* at Noon. 85*(51%RH) at 2pm.---feels like 87* 91*(40%RH) at 4pm---feels like 92* 94*(39%RH) at 5pm. 96*(34%RH) at 6pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 86degs.(76/96) or +8. Month to date is 78.3[+1.0]. Should be 80.7[+3.3] by the 26th. Reached 84 here late yesterday. Today: 78-84, wind s. to w., m. cloudy, rain/TS late and overnight, 74 tomorrow AM. Meanwhile, Dallas threatens to melt 1980, 2011 records---multiple times, in the next 10 days. 76*(97%RH) here at 7am. 80* at 10am. Still 80* at Noon. 82* at 1:30pm. 78* at 3pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 84degs.(74/95) or +6. Month to date is 78.3[+1.1]. Should be 80.2[+2.7] by the 25th. Reached 85 here yesterday, but missed the rains. Rained overnight, say 11pm-6am. this morning. Today: 79-84, wind w. to s. to w. again, m.cloudy---rain?, 74 tomorrow AM. 74*(73%RH) here at 7am. 80* at Noon. 82* at 3pm. 83* at 4pm. Reached 84* at 6pm. 78*(89%RH) at 10pm.