CIK62

The next 8 days are averaging 42degs.(38/47) or -5. Month to date is 61.3[+10.5]. Should be 57.6[+4.3] by the 21st. Reached 71 here yesterday. Today: Falling T's 52>>>45 by sunset, wind nw.-breezy, clouds early, 38 tomorrow AM. (High was 63* at 1am)53*(85%RH) here at 6am, drizzle. 49* at 9am. 48* at 10am. 52* at Noon. 49* at 5pm. 45* at 8pm.

Now the GFSens (along with the OP) is also getting Warm for the period after the 22nd: To me it looks like Europe is in trouble finally with the BN.

The next 8 days are averaging 46degs.(42/51) or -2. To get to Normal for the month need>>> -5.8 average starting today. To be the warmest Nov. ever>>> +2.1 Month to date is 61.0[+10.0]. Should be 54.7[+5.0] by the 20th. Still at a record pace if maintained for the full month. GFSens. is a bore. The OP goes into the 50's and 60's after the 22nd however. Realize that the 45 of Monday would need to be 40 on the 27th. to be as BN---but it isn't---ie. the average T drops 5 degrees across the range. Reached 64 here yesterday. Today: 67-70 early, wind w. to nw.-breezy, var. clouds, 51 tomorrow AM. {Low so far was 65* overnight} 67*(95%RH) at 6am. 68* at 9am. 67* at Noon. Reached 71* at 3pm. 65* 7pm-9pm. 64* at 10pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 50degs.(45/55) or +2. Looking WARM again on the GFS OP, Ens. is still generally BN: Month to date is 60.8[+9.7]. Should be 56.0[+6.3] by the 19th. Reached 64 here yesterday. Today: 66-68, wind e. to s. to. w.-gusty by late PM-to 30mph., rain by 1pm till early tomorrow AM., 67 tomorrow AM. {Low was 60* at Midnight } 62*(92%RH) here at 6am. 64* at 9am. 66* at 11am. Down to 64* at Noon. 65* at 8pm. 66* at 10pm.

Nov. 18 snow leaves City out. But Nov. 22 does not.................We have some protection from the south and overnight timing.

The next 8 days are averaging 50degs.(45/56) or +2. Month to date is 61.2[+9.9]. Should be 55.9[+6.1] by the 18th. Reached 55 here yesterday. (Low was 49* at 5am) 50*(73%RH) here at 6am. 55* at 9am. 57* at 11am. 59* at Noon. 61* at 1pm. 62* at 2pm. Reached 64* at 4pm. 9AM T's on Sat. Unfortunately it is quite windy and rainy near this time.

Even at the time{for Southern B'lyn} of greatest probability of exceeding 39mph, the Probability here is 0%. Gusts could briefly be near 50mph off shore. We get about 1" of rain. The T at this time, say 4am, is near 70!. Th, F, Sat could average +7 together. Nicole crosses east coast of Florida shortly--near 27.5N. Strongest winds are to the north of this. 20 hours later it will cross the Florida Panhandle area near 85W.

Not even an inch for NYC now. Down from 3", three days ago. Rains from say, Friday Noon to early Saturday AM. GFS says T of 70 with strong southerly winds at 4AM Saturday! 45 by Sunday AM.

The next 8 days are averaging 53degs.(47/59) or +5. Month to date is 63.1[+11.7]. Should be about 58.1[+8.3] by the 17th. GFSens. looks like soldiers marching in file. The OP is Sloppy Joes. Reached 59 here yesterday. Today: 53-56, wind ne. to s. to sw., p. sunny, 49 tomorrow AM. Nicole remnant rains down to 1"-2", winds peak early Saturday before sunrise. Center is 400miles+ further west than three days ago, at our LAT. 42*(46%RH) here at 6am. 44* at 8am. 50* at 11am. 54* at 3pm. Reached 55* at 4pm.

After tacking on another 20 positive degree surplus{Th,F,S} or about +0.7 toward the monthly average---the GFS Ens. is Lather>Rinse>Repeat. Thank You Neg. EPO and soon to be Neg. AO?

The next 8 days are averaging 51degs.(45/57) or +2. Month to date is 64.6[+13.0]. Should be 57.3[+7.2] by the 16th. The GFS first week of November outlook of +14 was laughed at by some. Reached 77 here yesterday. Today: 55-59, wind n.-breezy, m. sunny, 39 tomorrow AM. 48*(52%RH) here at 6am. 50* at 9am. 51* at 10am. 54* at Noon. Reached 59* at 2pm and held till about 4pm. 56* at 5pm. Nicole effects here(NYC) Friday PM-Saturday PM maybe 1" up to 3", gusts up to 50mph from se. to s. to sw. and then nw. and dying down quickly on Saturday AM. Nicole remnants passing near BM on the GFS. T Anomaly for 1st. Week after storm passes:

KEPT UP WITH THE JONES TODAY IN CI: High 77. Lagged the last two days with 67 and 68. 68*(92%RH) here at 6am. 67* at 8am. (actually 67-68 since midnight.) 70* at 10am. 71* at 10:15am. 72* at 10:30am. 73* at 11am. 74* at 11:30am. 75* at 1pm. 76* at 1:30pm. Reached 77*(37%RH) at 2:30pm>>>>>held here for 1hr.45mins., RH down to 29%. 70* at 7pm(24%RH). 65* at 9pm. donsutherland1>>>>I think you meant to end with +2.4.

The next 8 days are averaging 56degs.(50/63) or +7. Nov. 14-23 are averaging 44(38/49) or -2. Reached 68 here yesterday. Today: 70-75, wind w. to n., clearing skies, 48 tomorrow AM! 68*(92%RH) here at 6am. 67* at 8am. (actually 67-68 since midnight.) 70* at 10am. 71* at 10:15am. 72* at 10:30am. 73* at 11am. 74* at 11:30am. 75* at 1pm. 76* at 1:30pm. Reached 77*(37%RH) at 2:30pm>>>>>held here for 1hr.45mins., RH down to 29%. 70* at 7pm(24%RH). 65* at 9pm. 62* at 10pm. NICOLE Wind Swath Gusts shows path:

All the models pass 98L and its future namesake, outside the BM. GEFS may be a little closer now. btw: Coney Island was screwed these past two days with highs of just 67 and 68 by me.

So far Tampa is 6" with 50mph+ winds on Thursday.

The next 8 days are averaging 58degs.(51/65) or+9........but averaging 42degs.(38/46) or -4, (More than that below) From Nov. 13-22. *** Where Did the Little Girl Go? *** Reached 67 here yesterday. Today: 72-78, wind s., variable clouds, 62 tomorrow AM. (Low was 63* at 4:30am)64*(96%RH) here at 6am{clock back 1 hour}. 66* at 8am. Still 66* at Noon. 65* at 2pm. Reached 68* at 3pm. 65* at 9pm.

Two weekends. Two storms. 6" total rain. Make me laugh. Did not laugh in CI today as T only reached 67 with sea breeze going.

The next 8 days are averaging 60degs.(54/67) or +11. Maybe two BN days in the next 10: Reached 67 here yesterday. Today: 71-75, wind s. to se., variable clouds, 66 tomorrow AM!! 62*(96%RH) here at 7am. 66* at Noon. Reached 67* at 2pm. Back to 66* at 3pm. 64* at 6pm.

Revenge of the AO????

The next 8 days are averaging 61degs.(54/69) or +11. Reached 65 here yesterday. GFSens. offering some hints of normalcy and potential BN starting say Nov.12-13: Today: 66-70, wind n. to w. to s., variable clouds, 62 tomorrow AM! 56*(93%RH) here at 7am. 55* at 7:30am. 57* at 9am---Fog Variable 1mi-2mi. 60* at 10am-hazy 61* at Noon-fog in/out. 66* at 3pm. Reached 67* at 4:30pm. 64* at 6pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 61degs.(55/68) or +10. While the GFS has some step-downs near the 10th, 13th and 18th{not shown}---the EURO continues its monotonous AN:(since Oct. 22 actually) Reached 71 here yesterday. Today: 66-70, wind s., some clouds, 58 tomorrow AM. 55*(80%RH) here at 7am. 60* at 10am. 62* at Noon. 64* at 3pm. Reached 65* at 4pm.---5pm. 61* at 6pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 63degs.(57/70) or +12. Gonna take at least until the 12th. to get to Normal or below it: The most optimistic outlook for BN comes from the CFSv2---but is starts at mid-month: Reached 69 here yesterday. Today: 65-69, wind e., m.sunny, 55 tomorrow AM. 57*(80%RH) here at 7am. 60* at 9am. 62* at 10am. 65* at Noon. 69* at 3pm. Reached 71* 4pm---5pm. 62* at 11pm.

The first 8 days of November are averaging 65degs.(59/71) or +14. For the record, the next 8 are averaging 52degs.(47/57), or +3. We could be near +7 or +8 at mid-month. The GFS Ens. version of this diagram shows that the change near the 10th. is merely to a near Normal--- but still + environment: Reached 64 here yesterday. Today: 66-69, wind w. to n., cloudy-clearing late, 59 tomorrow AM. 59*(99%RH) here at 7am. 61* at 11am. 63* at Noon. 65* at 1pm. 66* at 2pm. Reached 69* at 4pm. 65* at 7pm.

CHECK BACK IN 31 DAYS PLEASE.....................

The last day of October is averaging 61degs.(55/67) or +8. The first 9 days of November are averaging 65degs.(59/72) or +14! CFSv2 goes the mirror image of this hot start by mid-month. Other LR outlooks not as optimistically cold. Month to date is 56.9[-1.2]. October will end at 57.0[-0.9]. Reached 62 here yesterday. Today: 64-68, wind n. to w., cloudy, some rain by midnight, 59 tomorrow AM. 54*(90%RH) here at 7am. 56* at 8am. 61* at Noon. Reached 64* at 2pm. 61* at 6pm.