CIK62

The next 8 days are averaging 38degs.(34/42) or +2. Reached 43 here yesterday. Today: 37-41, wind ne., Rain 11am today to 5am tomorrow-wet snow?, 35 tomorrow AM. 40*(73%RH) here at 6am. 41* at 7am. 43* at 10am. 45* at Noon. Reached 46* at 1:30pm. 43* at 5pm. 40* at 9pm. 37* at 10pm. 62 years ago today, also a Sunday, we were waiting for what became an early 15"+ blizzard.

Constant Chaos output is scary in both the remaining December and January periods for different reasons: Scary AN Hot to Scary BN Cold: Pzzzzzzzz............its wrong both ways Lol.

Not much to stay up late over either---for the next two weeks? Has remained unchanged for the last four runs: 50/50 on >=1" in the next 15.

The next 8 days are averaging 37degs.(33/41) or Normal. While the heaviest potential snow total has reached 6"+ 100 miles northwest of the city, we stay at 0% here for even 1". Best chance for T to get below 20 is the 19th-25th, peaking on Christmas AM at 10%.. But where is the snow? Really just 50/50 on at least 1" for the next 15 days totally. Reached 46 here yesterday. Today: 40-42, wind ne., increasing clouds, 37 tomorrow AM. 34*(51%RH) here at 6am. 35* at 9am. 38* at 10am. 40* at Noon. 42* at 1pm. 42*/43* 3pm-7pm. 41* at 9pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 37degs.(34/40) or Normal. GFS with 13" on the 17th/18th. Unfortunately the ENS. is just 50/50 on >1" all the way to Christmas. Reached 55 yesterday(midnight) 52 daytime. Today: 42-46, wind n., m. sunny, 32 tomorrow AM. {44* at midnight} 37*(70%RH) here at 6am. 38* at 7am. 39* at 9am. 41* at Noon. 44* at 2pm. Reached 46* at 4pm. 41* at 8pm

Snow still a Bust Sunday PM-Monday PM: EURO/CMC have slight chance of 1". On to the 18th? For its full run we get this measly % for an inch, mostly from 17-18 and 23. Seems to be warming for Christmas anyway.

The next 8 days are averaging 40degs.(36/44) or +3. GFS with 3" Monday. Its Ens. is not playing along however: Also looking Toasty towards Christmas? Better have some snow cover pre-Holiday. Reached 59 here yesterday. Today: 50-53, wind n.-breezy, p. sunny, 36 tomorrow AM. {was 55* at midnight} 50*(85%RH) here at 6am. 49* at 7am. 52* at Noon. 52* at 3pm. 48* at 6pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 42degs.(39/46) or +4. Despite being constantly wrong on the lead 7, CFSv2 keeps showing this: It will be right eventually---when July comes and it is too cold for the beach. Can't wait. GFS looks a little BN for the 16th-20th, but quickly warms again. Reached 56 here yesterday. Today: 57-60, wind s. to w. to nw., cloudy, drizzle, 48 tomorrow AM. 56*(99%RH) here at 6am---FOG <0.3mi. 55* at 7am. 58* at 8am. 58* at Noon. Reached 59* at 2pm. 55* at 6pm.

NYC 55" EWR 63" MMU 70" ISP 48" SWF 72" No steak for me. Just one French Fried Potato. Its the Revenge of the PNA+/NAO-.

The next 8 days are averaging 46degs.(44/49) or +8. Bowling a 300 Game along 74W---Yeah, and we Strike Out. The Rossby Wave Theory does have BN around the 18th., but then blasts it AN till 2nd Week of Jan. Reached 47 here yesterday. Today: 51-53, wind se., cloudy, Rain-Noon>>>Tomorrow AM, 52 tomorrow AM. 48*(81%RH) here at 6am. was 46 overnight. 50* at 7am. 54* at 9am. 55* at 10am.---all day-----56* at 6pm.

GFS still insists we will be lucky to get below 32 before winter starts. T ranges from 32 to 54 with about 3" of rain( all by the 16th then dry and colder)---that's rain folks! Probability of any snow is going bye-bye too: The slight chance is solely from the 18th: Was 30% for many runs.

The next 8 days are averaging 47degs.(45/50) or +8. Maybe two BN days contained within: Reached 47 here yesterday. Today: 45-48, wind w. to s. to e., variable clouds, 45 tomorrow AM 39*(68%RH)here at 6am. 41* at 9am. 44* at Noon. 47* at 3pm. Basically still 47* at 8pm.

HORROR SHOW Continues.....................for those who like snow and cold. If correct, the 27 low from Nov. 21 is quite alive one month later.

The next 8 days are averaging 48degs.(45/51) or +9. Range is tight due to clouds and lots of rain perhaps. Reached 56 here yesterday (really held for entire day time hours) Today: 43-45, wind w., m. sunny, 35 tomorrow AM. 40*(56%RH) here at 6am. 39* at 7am. 41* at 11am. Reached 47* at 3pm. 45* at 5pm. 41* at 10pm.

Why are they continuing to run this model? Its front 7 has been super cold throughout the AN days experienced during late November to the present and has finally shown at least a Normal front 7----but still is super cold (or is that 'stupid cold' for the month.

To make you feel better. This is the mate to the OP T's posted earlier. Maybe we get to 25 for the lowest T. It still only has a slight chance for any snow, however........not shown.

The next 8 days are averaging 48degs.(44/53) or +8. Giving 2015 competition or just another Upside Down Upgrade to the GFS: Comes complete with 4" of Rain and No Snow nearby. Reached 47 here yesterday at 3pm and again 9 hours later at midnight. Today: 53-56, wind s. to w. to nw-breezy, cloudy, rain 8am-4pm, clearing late, 37 tomorrow AM. 52*(82%RH) here at 6am. 56* at 9am. Basically stayed at 56 all day and is still 56* at 7pm. 53* at 8pm. 49* at 9pm.

The GFS keeps T between 32 to 56 with 3" of rain over the next 15 days. Can not even get lower than the 27 of November 21st. Rossby Wave output has just one BN period at mid-month. Sizzles otherwise.

The next 8 days are averaging 45degs.(39/50) or +5. Not pretty and only snow chance is the 10th. Reached 43 here yesterday. Today: 42-45, wind w. to s., p. sunny, 47 tomorrow AM. 34*(60%RH) here at 6am. 39* at 9am. 40* at Noon. Reached 47* at 3:30pm. 43* at 6pm. Up to 46* at 11pm.

November ended at 50.9[+2.9], 10th. Place. The first 8 days of December are averaging 42degs.(36/49) or +2. Not much going on here during the next 15 days. If any falls, the period is 12/08-12 Reached 58 here yesterday. Today: 42-45, wind w. to nw.-breezy, m. sunny, 35 tomorrow AM. 36*(54%RH) here at 6am. 37* at 9pm 40* at Noon. 42* at 2pm. Reached 43* at 3:30pm. 41* at 5pm.

Adding the extra two weeks actually increased the anomaly. Not the way LR works to my mind. How can it know more about the extra two weeks than the previous four. I would think the earlier departures would become muted out in the end. Snow cover perhaps. FWIW The GEFS is just a shell compared to this output---but the departures are in about the same locations, somewhat anyway. Now where did I pack away my North Face Murdo Parka those many years ago? lol.

The last day of November is averaging 51degs.(45/58) or +9. The first week of December is averaging 44degs.(39/50) or +4. Month to date is 51.0[+2.8]. November will end at 51.0[+3.0]. Reached 47 here yesterday. Today: 54-58, wind s. to w.-breezy, cloudy, Rain 10am-7pm., 35 tomorrow AM. A little windy around 1pm from south, quickly goes to west and calms down. 47*(75%RH) here at 6am. 51* at 7am. 52* at 9am. 54* at 10am. 55* at 11am. 56* at Noon. 57* at 2pm. 58* at 4pm. Wind gusts failed here again. 55* at 6pm. 52* at 7pm. 46* at 10pm.

The last two days of November are averaging 45degs.(40/51) or +3. Week 1 of December is averaging 46degs.(39/53) or +6---so no winter till Dec. 08+++++?????? Month to date is 51.4[+3.1]. November should end at 51.0[+3.0]. Reached 51 here yesterday. Today: 44-47, wind s., p. sunny, 46 tomorrow AM. 38*(66%RH) here at 6am. 39* at 8am. 40* at 9am. 42* at 10am. 44* at 11am. 45* at Noon. Reached 47* at 3:30pm. 44* at 6am. 45* at 8am.

.........................with the proviso that it says the next 5 are way BN too. That 5 day BN period has been traveling with the model for days already. FWIW

The last 3 days of November are averaging 47degs.(42/52)or +5. First Week of December averaging 44degs.(38/51) or +4. GFSext says the next BN 7-Day Period is centered on Dec. 10. Month should be BN every 7 day period beyond that. But caution advised as this cold air will not be coming from Hudson Bay---but much further west and could warm and get waylaid at anytime and pop goes the SE Ridge. Month to date is 51.5[+3.0]. November should end at 51.0[+3.0]. Reached 60* here at 10pm! yesterday. Today: High already reached at 56. Falling T's into upper 40's and 39 by tomorrow AM, wind w. to n.-breezy, variable skies. 53*(80%RH) here at 6am. 55* at 8am. 50* at 9am. 51* at Noon. 51* at 3pm. 45* at 8pm.