CIK62

The last day of December is averaging 52degs.(50/54) or +18. Month to date is 38.0[-1.2]. December will end at 38.4[-0.7]. But +2.5 versus the 1960's Decembers. The first 7 days of January are averaging 49degs.(44/54) or +15. We should have lows under 40 but above 32 starting Jan. 07 as a special Week 2 treat. STRIKE UP THE BAND! Reached 57 here yesterday. (62 in City) Today: 50-54, wind variable then s. to w., rain/drizzle/fog till after midnight, 48 tomorrow AM. 52*(84%RH) here at 6am, drizzle, rain, foggy. 53* at 8am. 54*/55* Noon to 3pm. 56* at 9pm. Fog mostly lifted by 10pm. 55* at 11pm.---but Fog back now.

The Step Down in Week 2 is still a +6. At any rate-----7 more 50's to go to get to the 9 40's. Who writes these scripts? Reached 57 by me today.

Do not want to be a Kill Joy---but this is actually the highest % for a sub-32 reading in the next 15. The first 15 days of January looks like a Tax Write Off to me:

The last 2 days of December are averaging 47degs.(42/53) or +13. Month to date is 37.4[-1.9]. December should end at 38.0[-1.1]. Reached 53 here yesterday. Today: 53-56, wind w., variable clouds, 48 tomorrow AM. GFS snorts Pot and sips Rum: 20" of Snow in the next 15 days while Ensemble says only 50% chance of at least 1"! 43*(62%RH) here at 6am. 42* at 7am. 45* at 10am. 49* at Noon. 50* at 12:30pm. 52* at 1pm. 54* at 1:30pm. Reached 57* at 3pm. 55* at 4pm. 51* at 6pm. Back up to 55* at 8pm. 52* at 10pm.

The next 7 days at +18 or more !!!!. 52degs.(48/57)............... Do not know what database the Climo #'s are derived from---but that makes it +20. KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 12/29/2022 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 FRI 30| SAT 31| SUN 01| MON 02| TUE 03| WED 04| THU 05|FRI CLIMO N/X 44 57| 48 56| 49 58| 44 55| 48 59| 56 61| 50 52| 38 26 39 TMP 45 54| 51 53| 51 52| 46 51| 50 56| 58 58| 52 47| 39 DPT 33 40| 44 49| 43 34| 35 37| 41 46| 51 50| 45 36| 27 CLD CL CL| PC OV| OV PC| CL PC| PC OV| OV OV| OV OV| OV WND 6 6| 3 5| 7 9| 7 4| 3 5| 8 6| 5 9| 13 P12 2 0| 1 42| 87 9| 5 6| 15 26| 40 43| 45 47| 42999999 P24 2| 42| 87| 6| 26| 53| 69| 999 Q12 0 0| 0 1| 2 0| 0 0| 0 0| 1 2| | Q24 0| 1| 2| 0| 0| 2| | T12 0 0| 0 0| 4 2| 1 1| 1 1| 3 3| 2 1| 2 T24 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 7 PZP 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 1 3| 4 5| 6 6| 6 5| 5 PSN 0 0| 0 0| 0 1| 1 2| 1 3| 0 4| 2 8| 15 PRS 4 4| 2 1| 1 0| 2 2| 3 3| 4 3| 4 3| 10 TYP R R| R R| R R| R R| R R| R R| R R| R SNW 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| |

The last 3 days of December are averaging 44degs.(39/50) or +10. Month to date is 37.2[-2.2]. December should end at 37.9[-1.2]. Reached 48 here yesterday. Today: 47-50, wind sw., p. sunny, 45 tomorrow AM. I'm Back............. This is as likely as converting a 7---10 Split. We had a better chance for 1" in December............................... 39*(60%RH) at 6am. 38* at 7am. 40* at 9am. 42* at 10am. 43* at Noon. 48* at 2pm. Reached 53* 3pm-4pm.

Yes. Heights tomorrow are 100% assured of exceeding 5760m, say 5780m---numbers typical of somewhere in Florida at this time of the year. Finally signs of ridging out west---but month is nearly half over and half wasted---and this is not guaranteed. Now at this very time Jan. 13---our chance of being below 5400m---where you can talk about snow>>>>just 10%. Not shown.

The last 4 days of December are averaging 39degs.(35/43) or +5. Month to date is 37.1[-2.4]. December should end at 37.8[-1.3]. Reached 35 here yesterday. Today: 42-45, wind w., m. sunny, 39 tomorrow AM. Week 1 of January maybe 45(41/50) or +12. Apparently nothing BN {H+L<67} till the 10th. Week 2 Normal to slightly BN. Week 3 should be Action Jackson , if we are lucky. 2/3+ of US is AN for the next 15 days as indicated here: No strong break for us showing yet. 35*(68%RH) here at 6am-basically 35/36 all night. 34* at 7am. 36* at 10am. 38* at 11am. 39* at Noon. 40* at 12:30pm. Reached 48* at 3pm. 45* at 6pm. A Bum's Rush for +300m. Gets close again January 04.

After the T passes 32 tomorrow by Noon---it may not go below freezing or reach it again till passed Jan. 12. That would be about 15 days at or above Freezing. Someone should check on what that record is for the January portion, at least. I know the record at the other end of the spectrum, staying at or below Freezing, is 16 days in 1961 with bookend snows. But alas. Go ahead a little more and see the world centered around the 13th. Get it done here boy or don't show your face in these parts again till next winter. Hint: You won't need any Rock Salt by February.

The last 5 days of December are averaging 37degs.(33/42) or +3. Month to date is 37.3[-2.4]. December should end at 37.3[-1.8]. Reached 29* here yesterday at midnight. Today: 32-35, wind w. to nw., p. sunny, 32 tomorrow AM. Start of a trend or just a head fake? Don't let the snowballs hit you in the head---or you will join the GFS in the {fill in} The Ens. is under a 30% chance of at least 1" all the way to the 12th. 30*(49%RH) here at 6am(most of the night at 30*) 29* at 7am. 31* at 9am. 33* at Noon. Reached 35* at 3:30pm. 34* at 6pm.

This is the first 7-Day Period with even Near Normal T's. Real cold never gets here over the 6 weeks+ of the run: The final result: KISS ME GOODBYE and I'll try not to Snow ................................. https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=kiss+me+goodbye++youtube#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:a6b0ac57,vid:jqQzRDqTS7Y

Anyone have a meteorologic reason why Decembers have warmed by 3.2 since the 1960's, while the month of January has only warmed by 0.4 over the same time period. Are we gonna get measurable snow before January 29--which I think is the record latest first snow of the season (1973)? Looks like a shutout till the 10th or later right now. verify/comments anyone?

The last 6 days of December are averaging 37degs.(32/42) or +3. Month to date is 37.8[-2.0]. December should end at 37.7[-1.4] or +1.8 from the 30 Year Normal in effect during the 1960's. Reached 28 here yesterday. Today: 27-30, wind w., increasing clouds, 26 tomorrow AM. GFS claiming an average T of 48(43/53) +14 for the 11 days Dec. 29 thru Jan. 08. eke! Here is why. Just look along 74W. What do you not see? lol. 20*(57%RH) here at 6am---basically all night at 20*. 21* at 9am. 25* at Noon. Reached 30* at 3pm. 28* at 6pm.

Stacked against us from say Dec. 28---Jan. 08:

The last 7 days of December are averaging 32degs.(28/37) or -2. Month to date is 39.7[-1.4]. December should end at 37.5[-1.6] from current 30 Year Normal. (+1.6, based on the 1960's 30 Year Normal.) Reached 15 here yesterday---basically 14/15 from 3pm to midnight. Today: 26-30, wind w.-still breezy, p. sunny, 22 tomorrow AM. Up a mountain and back down: 17*(60%RH) here at 6am.{low 15 at midnight} 19* at 9am. 21* at 10am. 23* at Noon. 26* at 2pm. 27* at 3pm. Reached 28* at 4pm. 24* at 8pm.

PROBABILITY 0 TILL JAN. 08 and only 10% anyway:

The last 8 days of December are averaging 32degs.(28/37) or -2. Month to date is 39.7[-0.4]. December should end at 37.8[-1.3] for the current 30 Year Normal...........but +1.9 from the 1960's 30 Year Normal. Reached 56 here yesterday overnight. Today: 17-20, wind w-breezy, p. sunny, 18 tomorrow AM. For those who enjoy the cold, the price to pay for this Gift of the Magi---is 10 50-degree days and a record high NY'sD. 8*(55%RH) here at 6am.{was 11 at midnight}. Still 8* at 9am as it has been since 4am-held till after 10am. 11* at Noon. 15* at 3pm. How it looked around the time of the lows for this AM:

Peak T's were around 4am: And right now: btw: My Barometer is 29.11" at 11:30am and I think that should do it. Also, the T should be above 32 continuously starting late on Dec. 28 and lasting til the AM of Jan. 05, a wasted week---unless a better setup is creating itself during the lull. Heavy rain by 12:30pm? A changeover in City by 1:30pm???

The next 8 days are averaging 30degs.(24/37)or -4. Month to date is 40.0[+0.2]. Should be 37.3[-1.0] by the 30th. Reached 55 here yesterday at Midnight. (56 today at 4am) Today: Falling T's-steady near 46 till 1pm-32 by 6pm-14-by midnight and 10 to 13 by tomorrow AM, wind w.-gusty to 30mph., drizzle possible till sunset. 51*(99%RH) Fog <0.5mi. (P=29.23") here at 6am. 48* at 7am. Fog lifted at 7:30am. Ocean moving considerably further inland and Steeplechase Pier sidewalk appears noticeably closer to sea surface. 47* at 9am(P=29.20"). 47* at 10am(P=29.17") 47* at 11am(P=29.14"). P=29.11" at 11:30am. 49* at Noon(P=29.08"). {P=29.05" at 12:30pm for the bottom of the P} Snow squall here at 1:45pm with a T of 42. 38* at 2pm(P=29.14"). Reached 32* at 3pm. 27* at 4pm. 23* at 5pm. 20* at 6pm(P=29.44"). 18* at 6:30pm. 15* at 8pm.

Not much rain yet and now a Dry Slot incoming. Represents sinking air so it must be rising somewhere relatively nearby:

GFS THEATERS Inc. Always One Price/Always the same Flick/Four Showings per Day:

The next 8 days are averaging 29degs.(23/35) or -5. Month to date is 40.0[-0.3]. Should be 36.9[-1.6] by the 30th. Reached 42degs. here yesterday. Today: Rising T's(48 by midnight), wind e. to s.-gusty starting in PM, Rain{up to 2"-end as snow?} from Noon on., 48 tomorrow AM. Temperature should drop by 42 degrees in 24 hours---from Friday AM-Saturday AM. Gusts of 30+ from e. to s. to w. will be possible from this evening to Saturday 11am. Peaks early Friday: Pressure headed for 29.17"? 39*(66%RH) here at 6am. 40* at 7:30am(P=30.41"). 41* at 8am(P=30.38") 45* at 10am(P=30.35"). 47* at Noon(P=30.28"). 48* a 3pm(P=30.18") 49* at 5pm(P=30.10"). 50* at 7pm(P=30.00) 51* at 10pm(P=29.82").

The coldest 5 Day Period is -15. The first 5 days of January are +12.( not shown) btw: Wind threat seems reduced for the City 65mph down to 45mph. BURNT SIENNA and we have the highest %. Nice look on paper---not on your back.............

Been looking this way for 10 days. Keep dropping a day at one end and still getting the same output by adding a day. Worse than that is the fact that the whole probability, or what there is of it, comes from the 23rd---which we know is a fail.

The next 8 days are averaging 29degs.(23/35) or -5. Month to date is 40.3[-0.2]. Should be 37.1[-1.6] by the 29th. Reached 39 here yesterday. Today: 36-40, wind n. to e.- variable. p. sunny, 35 tomorrow AM. BALL DROP T---45 POLAR BEAR DIP T---50, Drizzle, Wind S. SUGGESTION: Get the GFS to just keep on going and we can skip the winter............................ The next likely BN 7-Day Period: centered on mid-month. 32*(67%RH) here at 6am. 35* at 9am. 36* at 11am. 37* at Noon. 40* at 2pm. Reached 42* at 4pm. 40* at 6pm.