CIK62

What are we waiting for anyway? Every day will be AN this month thru the 25th. In 1932 only the last day of the month was BN. Gonna happen again? Last BN day was Dec. 27th.

The next 8 days are averaging 39degs.(35/44)or +6. Month to date is 47.3[+13.3]. Should be near 43.1[+9.6] by the 17th. Finish the month like this and we could be #1. Reached 42 here yesterday. Today: 43-45, wind nw., decreasing clouds, 36 tomorrow AM. EUROens. says some BN in here by the 22nd. or so-----but the GFSens. says no, trough gets stuck to the west of us. 39*(87%RH) here at 6am, drizzle. 38* at 8am. 40* at 9am. 41* at Noon. Reached 44* at 3:30pm. 42* at 6pm. 41* at 9pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 40degs.(36/45) or +7. Reached 46 here yesterday. Today: 39-43, wind w., p. sunny, clouding up late, 38 tomorrow AM. Whether we finish at +9.6 or better this month---it seems we will still be in the running for warmest ever January by the last week of the month. Judging how it looks at the end of the Ensemble run, BN air is still days away! 35*(60%RH) here at 6am. 34* at 7am. 36* at 9am. 39* at Noon. Reached 42* at 3pm. 39* at 6pm.

This will be February. March and April will be relatively colder he says. WHO'S HE, NOT ME..............ITS JB. Its the Toilet Paper Run. Keep Swingin' Boy----You're Bound to Make Contact.

Now dig this: Month to date is 50.9[+16.1] The next 17 are averaging 41(36/46) or +8 So by the 24th with the setup below, we would be near 43.6[+10.1]---a record pace.

The next 8 days are averaging 39degs.(34/45) or +6. Reached 50 here yesterday. Today: 43-45, wind w. to nw., p. cloudy-clearing, 32 tomorrow AM. By the 22nd. we look as far away as ever from any cold. GFSens. is similar. Week 3, say 14-22 looks like +10 record pace. 38*(77%RH) here at 6am. 39* at 7am. 40* at 9am. 41* at 10am. 43* at Noon. 46* at 1pm. 44* at 3pm. 42* at 8pm.

Discuss this better. While the Wind Gust forecasts have not done well.............: Seems stronger than days ago.

Looks like an Endless Temperature Loop. How do you get a snowstorm when the T figures to spend just a few hours out of the next 384 below freezing?

The next 8 days are averaging 38degs.(34/43) or +5. Reached 55 here yesterday. Today: Was 49* at Midnight, 44-46 daytime, wind e. to nw., cloudy, showers till 1pm., 39 tomorrow AM. Coldest part of the winter and <32 ducks out of the scene completely from the 17th-21st and beyond? 48*(91%RH) here at 6am. 45* at 7am. 48* at 9am. 50* at Noon. 45* at 7pm.

Western Europe and area to the south start and finish AN in sympathy with us or we with them. Jan. 18,19 could be +20-30??? here.

All the EURO Ensemble does is keep the % of at least 1" from being 0% because of the period 13th.-15th:

Another wind gust Fail coming? So far this a snowstorm Fail. Gusts are from the east, unfortunately. Snow in western PA. Note to EastonSN+ January 1916 was a mixed bag. Two single digit days mixed in with the 60's. In fact, February/March had single digit days too and snow on the ground was continuous from Feb. 02-Mar. 24---except for late February. Highlights; Jan. 5,6 58,58 Jan. 22 61 Jan. 26,27,28 60,69,66 Jan. 31, Feb. 01 63, 60 The cold/snowy period began here, Feb. 02.

HEY! This really is January 1932: Average was 36.0, about +4 at the tlme. 37 25 Dec. 31 40 35 40 34 42 36 36 33 43 35 57 43 60 43 43 35 38 35 40 31 Jan. 10 36 30 58 32 68 56 70 55 67 48 48 40 52 38 56 40 40 34 52 35 Jan. 20 43 40 54 40 50 39 52 39 40 35 45 36 53 43 48 38 44 35 60 33 Jan. 30 33 24

The next 8 days are averaging 40degs.(36/44) or +7. Reached 60* here yesterday. 66* in Central Park. Today: 52-55, wind n. to e., cloudy, 45 tomorrow AM. Here is a how it looked inJan. '32: Just Joking. Except for 3 possible Trip Points, EURO Ens. is clear sailing AN. 53*(97%RH)FOG<0.25mi. here at 6am{51* at 5am, 55** at Midnight} 54* at 9pm. 55* at Noon. 48* at 6pm.

Still struggling to Slam Dunk at least 1":

The next 8 days are averaging 43degs.(38/48) or +10. Reached 55 here yesterday. Today: 59-66, wind w. to e. to n., variable clouds, showers 4pm-Midnight, 53 tomorrow AM. Looks like another Heat Wave building for the coldest part of the winter. Only the briefest encounters with any BN air seems likely in the next 15 days. GFS seems similar. Start thinking about January 1932 falling by the wayside if pattern does not break. 8 out of the 12 Hottest months of the year have occurred in the last 32 years. January is the biggest holdout. Begging for <32 at the coldest time of the season?: This output % peaks on Jan. 09. 55*(93%RH) here at 6am{51* at midnight} 56* at 8am. 57* at 9am. 60* at 10:30am. 60* at Noon. Down to 56-58 2pm.-5pm. 54* at 7pm.

BRUTAL FACTS: 1. GFS Ens. can not show even 1 high % BN day, in the next 15 2. The best chance for a Low <32 is Jan. 12---then a retreat into Canada for the 32's. 3. JB thinks he may be wrong about the cold returning. A scary thought: Back in the 82-83 season I coined the phrase for myself "The Ten Day Winter". It did snow in December---but the Christmas Holiday Season was in the 60's, and I watched the tourists holding their winter coats in their arms while they waited for the Statue of Liberty Ferry in Battery Park---which can generate nice wind chill values usually. Then for about a week in February it went BN and we squeezed in a 22" snowstorm---which was quickly gone. The Scary Thought is: What if we already have had the 10 Day Winter w/o the snow? In other words:

Let me confuse things. PS JB sleeps with the CFSv2 and never saw a pattern that did not remind him of another pattern. He says this will happen:

The next 8 days are averaging 46degs.(42/50) or +13. Reached 57 here yesterday. Today: Rising T's into tomorrow AM from 49 up to 57, wind e. to sw., cloudy, rain 11am-5pm. Happy Times? Only In America---or should I say only on the EURO OP: Still snowing at 240+, so this may not be the final total: The ENS. has virtually no chance for 1". Running the full 360hrs. does not add anything here. Go back to sleep till __/__/__. Be lately, allow me to add this, which obviously does not support a storm---it does even support any cold air or accidental patch of same that might creep in here: 50*(90%RH) here at 6am.{was 49 at 3am} 51* at 7am. Over the past 7 hours seen 49-52. 51 at 2pm. 53*-55* since 3pm---now 55* at 7pm.

No comment: And yes, the GEFS is identical:

The next 8 days are averaging 46degs.(42/50) or +13. Reached 58 here yesterday. Today: 53-55, wind w. going to e., increasing clouds, 50 tomorrow AM Week 3 starting to look like a train wreck---not Salvation: The best % for getting below 5400m. This quickly withdraws itself: 48*(70%RH) here at 6am. 47* at 7am. 49* at 8am. 51* at 10am. 54* at 11am. 56* at Noon. 57* at 1pm. but 54* at 1:30pm. 52* at 2pm. 51* at 3pm. 52* at 4pm. 54* at 6pm.

Out on the street with a Tin Cup---I mean Snow Board. Snow for the Bored?, Snow for the Bored?, Snow for the Bored? Begging for an inch. EL STINKO. All of the nothing is from the 7th.

December ended at 38.5[-0.6] but +2.6 versus the 30 Year Normal of the 60's. The first 8 days of January are averaging 46degs.(42/50) or +13. Critical THKs conditions will be met for a while on Saturday AM for some snow. But really nothing spectacular during first half of January, based on the Ensemble: Reached 56 here yesterday. Today: 53-56, wind w., p. sunny, 47 tomorrow AM. 51*(94%RH) here at 6am. 50* at 8am. 53* at 11am. (Crowd beginning to gather for Polar Bear Dip) 54* at 1pm. 56* at 3pm. Reached 58* at 4pm. 52* at 6pm. 50* at 10am.

The only BN heights here in the next 16 days is on Day 16:

This is the first Near Normal 7-Day Period on the EURO Weeklies: They never go BN with any vigor anyway.