CIK62

From now till Mid_Feb(average of 28 days) the JMA has above normal heights but normal 850's for us: {upper right quadrants of the maps}

The next 8 days are averaging 41degs.(37/45) or +8. Month to date is 43.9[+9.9]. Should be 43.0[+9.3] by the 27th. Reached 47 here yesterday{at midnight} Today: 42-45, wind e., Rain 9am-1am, 42 tomorrow AM Snowiest part of the winter and still can not get a 100% chance of at least 1". 0% till the 25th/26th. The 26th. does mark the start of Normal to BN T's and maybe some accidental snow. 43*(67%RH) here at 6am. 44* at 7am. 45* at 9am.(drizzle since 8am). 46* at 10am. 45* at Noon. 47* at 4pm. 43* at 8pm. Thunder/Rain at 9:30pm.

ACCUWEATHER has torched and tossed February and March out for the EC. Cold spring coming boys. Based on NO SSWE and wrong way MJO. Meanwhile patterns continue to gestate in JB for Happier Times. My 55" entry to the snow contest has melted. My Ten-Day-Winter manifestation is alive and well.

The next 8 days are averaging 42degs.(39/46) or +9. Month to date is 43.7[+9.6]. Should be 43.1[+9.4] by the 26th. Reached 44 here yesterday. Today: 49-51, wind w.-breezy, variable skies, 41 tomorrow AM. No BN T's till at least the 26th. No snow either except by surprise before then. The 28th. has the best % to be BN by at least 1 stinkin' degree. 32 Days since the last BN one. First days of February are uncertain. 43*(77%RH) here at 6am(drizzle) 44* at 7am. 47* at 9am. 48* at 9:30am. 51* at Noon. 52* at 3pm.

EURO WEEKLIES for February: Meanwhile the CFSv2 has completely flipped during last two days: Above MD Line and east of Mississippi River in question.

The next 8 days are averaging 42degs.(37/47) or +9. Month to date is 43.9[+9.8]. Should be 43.3[+9.5] by the 25th. Reached 47 here yesterday. Today: 44-47, wind w., p. cloudy, 44 tomorrow AM. Highest % for <32 in the next 16 days: Jan. 28 0% till the 24th., except slight on Jan. 21. Needless to say snow is going nowhere with these T's. All the last 5 days of the month will do is kill chances to end up as warmest ever January. 37*(45%RH) here at 6am. 38* at 7am. 40* at 9am. 42* at Noon. 44* at 3pm. Reached 45* at 7pm.

But the Ensemble says 50/50 on < 1" for the next 15 days. Remember, since NYC is at 0", every run of every model that has shown measurable snow---has been wrong! Probably 200 different runs have shown snow since Dec. 01. There have been more than 700 runs of the main models since then. Any one keeping track of which model showed snow the fewest times? Lol. 30 miles and 0".

Chances were better in December. The Bus Doesn't Stop Here Anymore.

The next 8 days are averaging 41degs.(36/46) or +8. Month to date is 44.3[+10.1]. Should be 43.2[+9.4] by the 27th. Reached 42 here yesterday. Today: 42-45, wind nw., cleaaring skies, 32 tomorrow AM. SURPRISE! But the OP is totally different late: 29*(50%RH) here at 6am. 30* at 7am. Back to 29* at 9am. 32* at 10am. 35* at Noon. 37* at 1pm. 40* at 2pm. 44* at 3pm. 46* at 3:30pm. Reached 47* at 4:30pm. 42* at 8pm.

Rest of month to average 40degs.(35/45) or +7 ??? We would end up at about +8.0 with this setup.

With a day like this lurking---after the multiple +5 to +15 days that precede it---what is the use of __________________{fill in time} A 40 degree BN patch goes by in northeast Canada before the month mercifully ends. January 29 could be BN---barely so.

The next 8 days are averaging 40degs.(36/450 or +7. Month to date is 44.9[+10.7]. Should be 43.1[+9.3] by the 23rd. Reached 36 here yesterday at 3pm. Today: 38-41, wind n-breezy, mixed skies, 28 tomorrow AM. 31*(66%RH) here at 6am. 36* at Noon. 41* at 3pm. Reached 42* at 4pm. 37* at 9pm. 35* at 11pm. Is this the first week of February? Or is it this?

Running "Out of the Money". Much warmer again at tail end. My horse finished first in the Fifth---but he was entered in the Fourth. PNA crash does it again:

BUT I saw a real snow shower here in CI back on NOVEMBER 21! But Whuppy Doo............. NEW YORK CENTRAL PARK, NY ( 89') LAT=40.77N LON= 73.98W STA TMP DP RH WD WS G PRS ALT PCPN CLOUD LEVELS HGT TYP VIS WX NYC 4am 35 25 66 000 6 19 070 2976 33 OVC 10 5am 33 26 75 350 7 16 073 2977 36 OVC 4 S- 6am 34 23 63 350 9 19 074 2977 39 SCT 55 OVC 10 7am 34 23 63 350 9 17 080 2979 TR 25 SCT 36 OVC 10 0713 33 24 69 010 7 15 2980 24 BKN 36 OVC 10 0743 32 25 75 360 7 2980 18 SCT 25 SCT 37 OVC 3 S- 8am 32 26 78 000 6 084 2980 19 SCT 37 OVC 3 S- 0802 33 26 75 040 9 2981 17 BKN 37 OVC 5 H 9am 33 25 71 000 4 097 2984 18 BKN 23 BKN 35 OVC 10 NYC 6 temps: high= 35 at 4am low= 32 at 0743 mean= 33.5 precip= TRACE

The most BN 7 days I could find: UNLESS you want to go to Week 6: We need this now!

The next 8 days are averaging 39degs.(35/44) or +6. Month to date is 45.7[+11.4]. Should be 43.2[+9.4] by the 22nd. Reached 53 here yesterday. Today: 36-39, wind n.-breezy, m.cloudy, 30 tomorrow AM. At best Near Normal for the last 5 days of the month. Before you know it, the Normals will be rising and the AN's will be in the 50's, 60's, 70's and challenge 80---like about 5 years ago for February. 34*(68%RH) here at 6am{38* at midnight}. 33* at 7am. 35* at Noon. Reached 36* at 3pm. 35* at 5pm. 32* at 8pm.

The best chance for 32* is Sunday AM. That goes for the full 16 days. It is better than the chance at the end of run when BN air was supposed to arrive. The chance of at least an inch of snow(not shown) is just 50/50 during the next 16 days. No improvement for weeks already.

The next 8 days are averaging 40degs.(36/45) or +7. Month to date is 45.5[+11.2]. Should be 43.3[+9.5] by the 21st. Reached 51 here yesterday(midnight). Today: Falling T's to 35 by tomorrow AM, wind w. to nw, breezy, rain ending early, variable clouds. Models not handling the change (if there is one out there). Flipped from yesterday to ROAST now, at the end of the month: BN way further west than previous runs: 51*(99%RH) here at 6am, drizzle. 49* at 8am. up to 52* at 9pm. 53* 10am & 11am. 48* at 3pm. 46* at 5pm. 40* at 8pm.

All right everybody. How many inches of lightning did you get? Lol. Next BN day the 28th? The ensembles look better than the ops.

Taken literally this averages 41degs.(36/46) or +8. This would bring us to 42.0[+9.2] by the 29th. Damn close to an all time record January.

The next 8 days are averaging 40degs.(35/45) or +7. Month to date is 45.5[+11.1]. Should be 43.1[+9.3] by the 20th. Reached 42 here yesterday. Today: 40 to 51, T rising to 51 by tomorrow AM, rain, windy later. Snow situation: EURO is 0% till the 22nd. and the GFS is 0% till the 26th. Do these BN heights get here by the end of the month in a meaningful way or not? EURO/GFS Ensembles are similar: 44*(70%RH) here at 6am.{was 40* at midnight}drizzle. 48* at Noon. 50* at 6pm. Thunder/rain-5:25pm-5:50pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 40degs.(35/46) or +7. Month to date is 46.4[+11.9]. Should be 43.6[+9.7] by the 19th. Reached 41 here yesterday. Today: 39-42,wind e., variable clouds, 40 tomorrow AM. Waiting for a BN day.? Last one was Dec. 27th. Here is the highest % in the next 15 days of <-1 BN.. It is at the end of the run. 1/14,15 have minor chance. From 1/16-1/23 the chance is flat out 0. Pacific rains and 250mb jet should let up by 1/20 but no dramatics for us a week later. 39*(58%RH) here at 6am. 38* at 7am. 40* at 9pm. 41* at 10am. 42* at 1pm-2pm. 39* at 7pm. back up to 41* at 9pm.

Still no indication of Arctic air pouring in here: Back to Normal or slightly less by the 27th. perhaps if trend continues.

The next 8 days are averaging 39degs.(35/44) or +6. Reached 44 here yesterday. Month to date is 47.1[+12.6]. Should be 43.2[+9.5] by the 18th. Today: 42-45, wind w. to n., variable clouds, 34 tomorrow AM. Looking different here but not really great. A guess: The next BN day is Jan. 28---more than a month since the last one and beyond the chart below. 38*(63%RH) here at 6am. 39* at 8am. 40* at 10am. Reached 41* at Noon---5pm. Finally after 9 hours 40* at 9pm.

% went from 10 to 0. I am insulted. Yep, Went West.