CIK62

The last 2 days of January are averaging 44degs.(39/49) or +10. Month to date is 43.4[+9.7]. January should end at 43.4[+9.7]. First Place. Reached 52 here yesterday at 4pm. Today: 48-50, wind w., m. cloudy, 37 tomorrow AM. LR Models agree the next 30-45 days will be BN everywhere in N.A. except Florida and/or the E.C. 43*(76%RH) here at 6am. 42* at 7am. 44* at 9am. 45* at 10am. 48* at 11am. 49* at Noon. 50* at 12:30pm. 54* at 3pm. Reached 55* at 3:30pm. 48* at 6pm.

The last 3 days of January are averaging 44degs.(38/51)or +11. Month to date is 43.2[+9.5}. January should end at 43.3[+9.6]. Second Place or Better. Reached 51 here yesterday at 3pm. Today: 48-52, wind sw., m. cloudy, 44 tomorrow AM. 35 Days of preparation to get a few BN days: 43*(67%RH) here at 6am. 46* at 9am. 47* at 10am. 48* at Noon. down to 46* at 1pm. up to 52* at 3pm. 48* at 8pm.

The last 4 days of January are averaging 42degs.(36/48) or +9. Month to date is 43.2[+9.5]. January should end at 43.0[+9.3]. Second Place. Reached 43 here yesterday at 4pm. Today: 47-50, wind w., p. cloudy, 43 tomorrow AM. Get Ready for another HW: 38*(61%RH) here at 6am.{was 36* at 2am} 39* at 9am. 42* at 10am. 47* at Noon. 50* at 1pm. Reached 51* 2pm-3:30pm. 49* at 6pm. 48* at 9pm.

Ugly.........

Other snow oddities: First measurable etc. 1997-98 Jan. 18 0.5" then 2+ months later! Mar. 22 5.0" ends season at 5.5" but Mar. 27-31 HW 83,80,81,82,86 !!! 1972-73 Jan. 29 1.8" Feb. 16 0.8" Mar. 18 0.2" ends season at 2.8", least ever.

The last 5 days of January are averaging 40degs.(36/45) or +7. Month to date is 43.3[+9.5]. January should end at 42.6[+8.9] Second Place. Reached 57 here yesterday{midnight}. Today: 41-44, wind w., p.sunny, 37 tomorrow AM. GFS prepares to make Week 2 of February like Week 1 of January. Maybe 3 cold days [Feb. 2-5] then too mild for winter weather. It gets the snow right for the next 10 days at 0"---because it has no precipitation at all! Differs from other outputs. 37*(73%RH) here at 6am. 39* at 9am. 41* at 10am. 41* at Noon. 42* at 2pm. 43* at 3pm. 40* at 6pm. 38* at 9pm. 37* at 10pm.

The last 6 days of January are averaging 40degs.(36/45) or +7. Month to date is 43.1[+9.3]. January should end at 42.5[+8.8] Second Place Reached 54 here yesterday at midnight. Today: Slowly falling T's to 42 by sunset, wind w.-breezy, variable clouds, 36 tomorrow AM. 47*(99%RH) here at 6am. 44* at 8am. 42* at Noon.

H E R E L I E S W I N T E R the D U D E TO SNOW LOVERS IT WAS VERY RUDE Born: Unknown-no paper work. Death: Shortly after Birth---from a High Fever. Buried: Far, Far, Away. BUT R E J O I C E ! ! ! The Spring Rodeo Dance will be held One Month early this year----I think.

Just one day in the next 16 has a 100% chance of being under 32. That is the cold we are waiting for?: Snow chances are naturally very low too, despite the 06Z's and 18Z's protestations. Stick with the Ensembles.

The last 7 days of January are averaging 41degs.(36/46) or +8. Month to date is 43.1[+9.3]. January should end at 42.7[+9.0] Second Place. Reached 48 here yesterday at 3pm. Today: 41-44, wind e.-breezy, Rain 1PM-3AM, 40 tomorrow AM. "I knew you had it in you son all January long:": 38*(56%RH) here at 6am.{37* at 4am.} 39* at 8am. 41* at 9am. 42* at 10am. 43* at 11am. 44* at 11:30pm. 42* at Noon-Rain. 41* at 12:30pm. 41* at 4pm. 44* at 6pm. 47* at 8pm. 50* at 10pm-been foggy/rainy for two hours.

YES. MOM WILL BE HOME ALONE ALL NIGHT ........cause I'll be out with Bobby. Better Luck next Winter.

The next BN day has slid forward to Feb. 03. Jan. 28,29 had looked good. It would be 37 straight days since the last one. First snow date is unknown and may not happen even during a relatively BN period Feb. 03-10. Accuweather actually has under 1" for the rest of the winter. Remember if we get no snow---then every model, and every run of that model which indicated snow---Was Wrong! So again I ask.......which model has shown snow the fewest times? Start Dec. 01 for the GFS, EURO, CMC. Go thru Jan. 31. That would be 4 runs/day * 62 days * 3 models, or 744 separate runs. Who would win? I bet there would a Tie if we conducted this test in J,J,A. LOL

After some snow on Feb. 01, we will have three cold, dry days and then a big warmup for Weeks 2,3 gets underway. Now the AN will be in the 50's and 60's. Week 4 tries to get back to at least Normal. You can see why Accuweather ditched the coast.

The last 8 days of January are averaging 39degs.(34/45) or +6. Month to date is 43.2[+9.4]. January should end at 42.2[+8.5] "Second Place". Reached 39 here yesterday. Today: 42-44,wind w.-breezy early, variable clouds, 35 tomorrow AM. The closest we come to 100% on getting below 32 in the next 16: In the Feb.03-05 period, where sub-zero was showing yesterday on the 18Z. I think the best we can hope for now is an accidental winter period, not even 10 days long? The chance for an inch of snow+, is in approximately the same condition of course. Near 0 till Feb. 01. 36*(68%RH) here at 6am. 37* at 8am. 40* at 10am. 41* at 11am. 43*at Noon. 44* at 1pm. 46* at 1:30pm. Reached 47* at 3pm. 43* at 4pm. 41* at 5pm. 40* at 9pm.

All Right so this isn't North Dakota. But it is the 18Z GFS, a known drug abuser, I mean data abuser:

% already back under 100 for that 1" of snow in the next 16 days. Dead Already. Gee, We Hardly Got to Know You. In addition, ACCUWEATHER has cancelled the rest of the winter for the Coastal Northeast. This is the second Death Notice issued. Problem is the tightening up of the SPV and that another warming event will come too late for a coastal region, snow wise. Spring could be partially BN, at least early on, that is.

The next 8 days are averaging 40degs.(35/44) or +7. Month to date is 43.4[+9.5]. Should be 42.5[+8.8] by the 31st. Reached 43 here yesterday at midnight(42 daytime). Today: 38-40, wind n. to nw-breezy late, Rain till 4pm, 35 tomorrow AM. WE INTERRUPT THIS BORING WINTER to inform you that the % of at least 1" of snow has finally reached 100. Jan. 25, Feb.03,07 are the main suspects in this crime: 39*(99%RH) here at 6am, really all night except 38 at 5am, rain. 40* at 9am. 39* at Noon. 37* at 2pm. Back up to 39* at 4pm. 36* at 9pm.

Meanwhile back at the Ranch: All this---and 5" of Liquid Equivalent wasted. This is a cool 40degs.(34/46) or +6.

In case we miss out: This would go a long way in getting our January back toward Normal--real quick like:

The next 8 days are averaging 36degs.(32/42) or +3. Month to date is 43.6[+9.7]. Should be 41.5[+7.8] by the 30th. Reached 42 here yesterday at midnight (41 daytime). Today: 42-44, wind s. to e., cloudy-Rain by 5pm till tomorrow AM,40. 38*(60%RH) here at 6am. 39* at 7am. 40* at 9am. 42* at 10am. 43* at Noon. 41* at 3pm.

Enough Liquid Equivalent to give us 45" of snow----but the GFS can not give us even 3". At least it "snows" three different times. I will sneeze once if any of them come off as indicated. Place to be is Albany, 2.5" L.E.---but a hearty 20" of snow out of it. Fooled Ya. This is for at least 12". Seems Albany has the same chance for that much as we do for 1" ie. 70%+.

The next 8 days are averaging 39degs.(34/43) or +6. Month to date is 43.9[+10.0]. Should be 42.5[+8.8] by the 29th. Reached 49 here yesterday. Today: 42-44, wind nw., some clearing late, 38 tomorrow AM. Cold start for February for all. Finally comparable coverage for BN in our latitudes to the AN. 38*(61%RH) here at 6am. {was 42* at midnight} 40* at 11am. 41* at Noon. 41* at 3pm. 40* at 4pm. 39* at 10pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 41degs.(36/46) or +8. Month to date is 43.8[+9.8]. Should be 42.9[+9.3] by the 28th. Reached 46 here yesterday. Today: 46-48, wind w.-breezy, variable clouds, 36 tomorrow AM. 0% till the 25th. Closer to 100% now---but GFS lags. 42*(93%RH) here at 6am. 43* at 7am. 44* at 9am. 45* at 10am. 48* at Noon. Reached 49* at 12:30pm. 43* at 8pm.

Looked like this on radar near 9:15pm-9:30pm. One good thunder clap here:

YOU SEXY THING: "Snow is in the Eye of the Needle" But the Ensemble still struggles to give us 100% chance for even an inch.