CIK62
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Everything posted by CIK62
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Next 45 days down to NORMAL again on CFS. But will it hold?
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Ran the CFS for its full 2040 hours and never saw it show a cold wave or a thrust south to us which held. Winter here is going to be a hit/run operation. No chance at 32 till 11/13-20 period which would be normal, but I am a liar. Even when a low of 32 is normal, it is a struggle here. Coldest was Jan. 5, run ends Jan. 14. Let's forget the specifics---just pointing out that there was no long lasting invasion of BN air. 5400THK rarely went south of us.
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EURO 7-day avgs. of the ensemble 500mb heights never run BN here for the 46 days. November will closer to normal than Oct., but AN I think.
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Southern Ireland and southern UK getting ready to battle 40' seas right now.
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I am confused. Did the CANSIPS really show this for October, with a forecast made on Oct. 01!?
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CPC is AN for every 3-month period around here forever-more. Quote the raven 'forevermore'. Closest to normal in the spring.
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What would you suggest? Just listened to KWO-35 and it was 60-72 degress times 7. Look when the surface data for the whole earth are in each month, season or year---most of the temperate areas (within 60degs. of equator) come in normal or above anyway. The dice are loaded against BN in any given spot and the models are rolling fair dice. Who do you think will win?
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Now back to matters that matter. The CVSv2 is at +5degs. for the next 45 days.
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There is no such thing as a 'current price' for BitCoin. 5308 now. Lol What is now? How much for a Red Tulip Bulb, is what you want to know, anyway.
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Wow. S.Ireland and S.UK get smashed again in 4 days.
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CFSv2 down to (2degs. BN) on next 45-day forecast---with some scary mid-month cold. This is 8 degrees less than it showed a week ago for the next 45. Meanwhile down to 50degs. here right now and maybe this will seem balmy in 30 days. First 40-something reading by midnite, I guess.
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Next 45 days down to NORMAL here somehow, while rest of country is AN. This is down 6degs. in a week. Cool down starts in southeastern US., maybe a stratospheric warm-up there?
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In the fantasy range, CFS has snow cover here about 11/19, for a few days-----then NYC, LI and most of NJ have nothing in Dec.---surrounding areas do---down the spine of the Appalachian Mts.
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According to the 46-day EURO, these are the dates for BN temps. here: 10/24-30 [midwest goes first], 11/09-12, 11/19-26 [wild swing from 20degs. BN to 10degs. AN].
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After late Oct. and first week of Nov., CFS goes bloody red for rest of Nov.
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JB thinks EURO is at odds with itself-----its MJO forecast says BN, but weeklies will have none of it.
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Since we may get past Oct. 17 w/o 50degs., what is the record date? For 32degs. I believe that date is during the last 10 days of December.
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It will be dubbed "THE SON OF SamDY" LOL.
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CFS still going with a +6deg. deviation for the next 45 days. Last 10 days of Nov. look interesting. A White X-MAS and NY'sE await the patient observer. lol
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CFSv2 still showing AN temps. throughout N.A. till Jan. on a monthly scale, when at least Canada goes BN. No invasion of those lower heights into the US till April, well sought of by April. lol. Great News from the CFS: No snow on the ground here till X-Mas Eve! Really.
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Expanding on my Summer Banter post of 8/20, #669-----we now are at: 441positive surplus/280days = +1.58degs. for the year to date. I subtracted 37 from surplus there, to correct for August, which was actually -1.2degs. So we need another 913-441 = 472 in the next 85 days, or an average of +5.6degs., to become warmest year ever. We could get as far as Nov. 20 at this rate---we'll see. If we do it, it will be with an incongruous BN summer!
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CFSv2 has no 5-day period that averages BN for the next 45 days. It estimates a +6 degree departure here over that time.
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Did you know that the average age for an all time warm monthly record is about 30 years, but for the coldest monthly record it is 120 years! The most recent coldest monthly record is 83 years ago---Feb. 1934. We probably will struggle just to get closer than 2 degrees or so of any of these 12 coldest monthly records, since this represents the bias we would have to overcome just to reach the original 30-year norms of 1900.
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Seems that only mid-Oct. has a chance for a few BN days. CFSv2 is back to a furnace into mid-Nov. Next 45-day period looks +4degs.
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The only thing holding the CFS monthlies from a thermal runaway, seems to be the simultaneous cold pool of ocean water to our east, which it is also predicting. But the model itself shows that cold water to wane by the winter. No month is showing up now as BN, for the next 9 months. (as usual)
