CIK62

On the paysite. Probably will go public tomorrow AM. CPC output has caved too. Tomorrow we will see what they have to say, since meteorologists there lick their wounds on weekends or party for 48hrs. if they get it right.

NYNJPA waved the white flag and gave up on the remainder of the winter. A wrong way SSW does us in.

And they always made you feel like they are in your city. But the same ACCUWEATHER person can be followed from Boston-Philly-NYC at a different number of minutes after the hour/half hour. Really, for two of the cities they are only looking at a RADAR screen/computer terminal and not out their window! Back around Aug. 05, 1999, NYC was hit by 4 Thunder Storms in 2.5 hours, and WINS did not have a word about it in a "live" report I heard while on the beach, despite the fact I was already getting ready to flee from the imminent storm #1 that PM.

John Coleman of the Weather Channel passed away Jan. 20. He was 83. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/21/obituaries/john-coleman-co-founder-of-the-weather-channel-dies-at-83.html?ribbon-ad-idx=9&rref=obituaries&module=Ribbon&version=context&region=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Obituaries&pgtype=article

So complex, that the writer probably intends to use it support whatever Feb/Mar brings. Meanwhile JB has begun to skip by Feb. and now talks about Mar. saving things.

The CFS is either Clueless or Snowless for the next 33 days around here. It likes your timing.

SDi believes cold and stormy conditions return after Jan. 20th., while JB says Big Thaw. I do not see any conflict till Jan.28 with AN being interrupted.

Right. CMC gives us 8". GFS is zippo.

Thanks for the summary graphics. That little patch of blue must be JB wishing upon a star his theory of combining the Pacific ACE with more traditional ideas is right. LOL! The first 7 days of Dec. will be +6, so a 42 degree surplus will have to be eliminated in the remaining 24 days to get back to normal, about -2. Will come down to last days of month which into the New Year may be AN again.

CFS looks like horror show right now for Jan. We have to hope this is wrong as usual. Based on 850mb. T: Days 1-10 mostly BN Days 11-27 exclusively AN Days 28-31 BN

CFS had one good 6BN 'Next 45 Days' run a few days ago, but its been AN since then.

Technically speaking, today was the first day of Climatological Winter and so a new winter banter forum should be started. It runs from Nov. 27 to Mar. 24 and represents the bottom quartile of daily mean temperatures which indicates the range should be all days with a mean T between 43-31 degrees. The bottom of the NYC winter comes in and around Jan. 24.

Once BN period starts near the Dec. 10th., it lasts till the New Year, when AN or just Normal temps. return---------probably muted by a hopefully large, thick snow blanket by that time. I have not seen the 'Next 45' this cold>>>>>6BN in recent memory. I hope this is not a CFS headfake. Also since next 2 weeks look to be +5, the period after the 10th. would need to be 11BN to finish 6BN!. FANTASY TERRITORY

EURO WEEKLIES [11/23] have record cold near Christmas, then flip by 50 degrees !!! for NYD. GFS slowly rotates the Polar Vortex to the east (from over Asia) and seems to want to get it here (over Hudson Bay) by mid-Dec. Go to Instant Weather Maps to see this. Image will not link.

We can use the next 20 to 25 (12/09 period looks OK) days as a Tax Write Off loss to the winter. Even Joe Besardi not cheering it anymore for now. BUT I MUST WARN EVERYONE THAT THE CFS BANS THE RED HUES FOR 6 STRAIGHT MONTHS, CONTINENT WIDE, STARTING WITH JAN., BEFORE BURNING OUR FERNS IN JULY/AUG.

Only hope now for Dec. is on,either side of the 12th., for a few days each way. CFS came in warmer again. Next 15 days. Could be worse, I suppose.

Nov. 28 to Dec. 21 looks like dead winter meat, that will spoil while hanging on the fence. Maybe brief normalcy near the 10th. Looks good thru first week of Jan. after astronomical start of winter though. Next 7 days meanwhile are averaging 45degs. now, maybe a +1 or +2 to kick off this AN period.

Next 15 days look like a bore and little more. We keep showing up in a dry slot and temps. are going nowhere.

Talk of Christmas songs, instead of Christmas snow. Sounds like everyone is conseding a boring December is on the way. I agree, till mid-month anyway. Just a reminder that CFS goes bananas with Jan., Feb., Mar., Apr., May and June showing a continental wide freeze of -3 to -15 degs. It banishes the red hues and seems to want to start a new Little Ice Age on North America. Maybe it knows of some volcanic or celestial occurence that will befall us. Lol. Oh, and yes, my favorite Chirstmas album would be Phil Spector's from '63 or '64.

CFS's December Outlook still looks awful.

I would never want any of these 'experts' to be a witness for me-----but I would love to have the pleasure of cross examining them. I will just stick to the CFS, bad as it is, which keeps telling the story of a late winter that lasts beyond the meteorological winter by two months. It practically banishes the red hues by Jan.---from the whole continent. To show the futility here, the JMA has generally BN for the next 3-4 weeks, and CFS is AN. These 'critters' would have trouble beating a stopped clock. Now if I only could find my Tarot Cards, the ones with the NAO, PNA, EPO, WPO, EL NINO, LA NINA, LA NADA, MODOKI, QBO, SSW etc. ------ I would make my own predictions. Oh here is a good substitute. My collection of used Chinese ChopSticks. Why, I'll just tossed them into air and read their entrails---and the answer is.......................... TBC.

The period 11/28---12/15, seems forfeited to the heat gods as downpayment for what will follow till June>>>CFS.

Get with the facts. CFS is warm for Dec. Then it goes ballistically and statistically RECORD COLD for the whole continent. We turn green with envy. Green is 10 degs. F BN for everyone, everywhere. Obviously suspect. Check it out. Nice computer game for a child to play with.

Get ready for 5 or 6 weeks of AN boredom according to the CFS. This starts before this month ends and is still going by Jan. 1. PV retreats to other side of pole and any troughs we get have no real cold air feeding them anyway. Big negative AO for a short time is not as good as a moderate one that lasts. JB still likes BN Dec. based on his own analogs. Pray that he is playing a meteorologist and not a lawyer with this one-----he went against grain with Nov., and should be limping into home plate a winner. What do Jimmy Soul (1963 #1 Hit) and most of the USA have in common? They are both 'married' to an Ugly Looking CFS Model.