CIK62

I agree with Snow88. EPS is crumbs to mid-month, especially Week 2. Then it is BN for 30 days everywhere in US. But this is going to be stale cold air because of its wide coverage, late winter arrival.

Next 8 days averaging 37degs., or 3degs. AN. 11.5* here at 6am.

Meanwhile the GFS prepares to disappoint us here about three times in the next 15 days.

Show about to start in Chicago, but not quite a record according to the LAMP: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/lamp/getlav.pl?sta=KORD

It is nice to know the future, but the Skill Level on these CFS outputs does not make the grade. It gave virtual certitude of an AN November that we know crashed and burned. Analogs are just that, analogs. Two people may look a lot alike, but not be related at all and have completely different mental and physical abilities. Some group of mathematicians have determined that this method is better than plain guessing in the very long run. But if you just say AN for every month w/o any considerations, you will be right 55%+ of the time anyway. Remember if Jan. finishes AN, then for the last 64 months the record will be 43AN 21BN. With the current 30-year normal, there are just more AN months. If I told you there were 55 Red Balls and 45 Blue Balls, all identical, inside an opaque drum---why would you say the one ball you choose would be blue? By the way, the same reasoning must apply to the 16 day OP. Why stop there? Let it ramble on and on! Well, again, some group must have determined that Day 16 has the same validity of being meaningful as dart throwing. Don't waste precious computation time.

Well these are really public info, but if they do not work, they must be protected. Will delete. Try this below, which does conflict with tendency shown on WxBell. It showed AN after the front end cold. A little confused here. If this is WxBell calculations, why does JB keep blabbing about a cold Feb-Mar? He speaks in riddles and has used too many analogs to foster his views. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/ In addition both the GEPS, GEFS do not look BN after Day 6/7, as many have noted. Feb. is not getting off on the right side of the SE ridge, if it expects to finish BN.

Latest EURO WEEKLIES are BN temperature wise all the way into week 2 of Mar., except near Normal for the first 7 up front. Unfortunately, after the first two weeks of the run, precipitation seems pushed east and to the south of our area. Gotta get that storm done quickly I think, otherwise it will take an accident to get the big one. I still contend if such a storm does occur, it will not show up in the LR and wind up as a surprise event.

Meteorologist commits suicide---but not over bad forecasting: https://www.aol.com/article/entertainment/2018/12/13/fox-2-detroit-meteorologist-jessica-starr-commits-suicide-at-35/23617450/?utm_source=zergnet.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=zergnet_3624899&ncid=txtlnkusaolp00001361

EURO/GFS have multiple consecutive sub-zero Highs!!! for Chicago, Milwaukee, Minneapolis and Detroit et al. Gee, I believe we never stayed below zero for an entire day even. I think +2 does it. It is only 10 degrees colder in Chicago than it is here, so -8 might be the record lowest high there, though the mid-west has more potential than we do. Anyone know what the records are for these cities visa-vee all time lows and sub-zero highs. Gonna listen to a local News Radio Station and see if any historical info is being given along with the forecasts. I bet these numbers mellow out upon approach. Thank You Bluewave. The 1983 Christmas time temperatures seems most like the late Jan. potential shown.

I take notice that for Feb. 02>>>>, the GFS increased the 850mb T's by nearly 50 degrees (-22C to +4C) in two runs. Uh oh again.

JB again warned the next 60 days will see the greatest HDD totals in history for eastern US and western Europe combined. Will repeat this on Neil Cavuto Show at about 12:45pm today, he mentioned.

Please find a working meat locker to hide in while reading this: https://247wallst.com/special-report/2019/01/11/the-weather-in-these-us-cities-will-be-unrecognizable-in-30-years/?utm_source=247WallStDailyNewsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_content=JAN142019a&utm_campaign=DailyNewsletter

CFS is just 8BN 22AN on the next 30 Days. Worse, the 8 come all together (1/3-10) then instant replay begins till Jan. 27. JB used up his bag of excuses in today's video. If the CFS is right, he will be scraped off the canvas and brought to NWS University Hospital ER and be ready in time to spread rumors about a cool summer or talk about some wayfaring hurricanes. Lol. Only a 'suicide jockey', seeking fame would ever call for BN anything nowadays. The world has seen 408 istraight AN months globally. The area in red is twice that in blue each month. It takes hubris to think you can figure out ahead of time where those blue areas will be.

REMEMBER? One year ago today, temps. went below 32*, and then stayed there for 14.5 days and nights, including a blizzard like snowstorm. A mere memory is all we got for this same time frame now.

EURO WEEKLIES have winter beginning Jan. 03 onward. Does not seem too spectacular however. In Jan. we could get away with it and have a snowstorm anyway if the Teleconnections/MJO conspire and the SSW gives us some BN air on our side of the NP. Next 30 on the CFS is 19BN 11AN But just in case we get the BN air only........does anyone have a list of major snowstorms around here that have occurred with bad Teleconnections/MJO? Thanks in advance.

FWIW, since I have been following this for a week anyway, the next 30 day breakdown from the fickle CFS is now 21BN 9AN. This is the best 30 day outlook yet, but of course we have lost a week of potential cold since I started this.

Good News on this travelling 30-Day Outlook I have been keeping track off since Sunday>>>>>>>>>>>> CFS breakdown for the next 30 days is now 20AN 10BN. If Dec. finishes AN, the last 63 months would have a similar 2:1 ratio, 42AN 21BN. 12/17 Update: About the same at 22AN 8BN, but we would have lost another winter day or two, if this is right. Accuweather has pushed the sustained cold into Week 3 iof Jan. 12/18 Update: 20AN 10BN 12/19 Update (liberal interpretation on behalf of BN): 17AN 13BN 12/20 Update: 16BN 14AN !!!!!!!!!! A nice switchero. 12/21 Update: 22AN 8BN This is hopeless. The cold will always be a month away. Accuweather sounds like it is giving up on Jan.,, and talks about a second SSW that might do something before the sun gets too high.

Just received an E-Mail that AccuWeather 'Weather Forums' is terminating for good as of today. Might get more crowded here. Long LIve American Weather!

The Worst Weather Events 2018 on a World Wide basis: https://247wallst.com/special-report/2018/12/10/worst-weather-events-of-2018/?utm_source=247WallStDailyNewsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_content=DEC132018a&utm_campaign=DailyNewsletter Gotta love photo with No. 7 on list.

CFS breakdown for the next 30 days is now 20AN 10BN. If Dec. finishes AN, the last 63 months would have a similar 2:1 ratio, 42AN 21BN. 12/17 Update: About the same at 22AN 8BN, but we would have lost another winter day or two, if this is right. Accuweather has pushed the sustained cold into Week 3 iof Jan. 12/18 Update: 20AN 10BN 12/19 Update (liberal interpretation on behalf of BN): 17AN 13BN

We are down to exactly Normal for the DJF period, according to the CPC. JB has an exaggerated negative bias where the CPC has Normal throughout SE/MA.

Latest EURO Weeklies look 'cold behind the ears'. This clashes with other LR outputs. Therefore I do not think there will be a Nor'easter till an accidental BN period can occur---ie. when just normal temps. might produce one anyway. I will go with Dec. 11. Hope this is not optimistic. lol.

JB still has all his eggs in the basket of the 'Ash Wed. analog 1962' to our setup in early March. SDiM is not on board with this.

JB, never one to admit he is wrong, is now talking about March as he was about Feb. Rekindling the ghost of Ash Wed. NE of '62 and some strong 1984 event. He just skips by the warmest Feb. ever. If he blows it, I am certain he will merely move on to his hurricane forecast or something about putative global warming theories.