CIK62

Next 8 days averaging 40degs., or about 5degs. AN. Month to date is +3.1[37.4]. Should be +3.7[38.2] by the 26th.

Next 8 days averaging 38degs., or about 3degs. AN. Month to date is +3.6[37.7]. Should be +3.4[37.8] by the 25th.

Next 8 days averaging 36degs., or about 1deg. AN.

Next 8 days averaging 38degs ., or about 3degs. AN. EURO Weeklies have SE RIDGE winning it all, though we are on the borderline for say 2/26-3/10. Look for a surprise there only. Bet on SE RIDGE to Win Place and Show. What a horse! Sat. event way south on every model.

What a laugh! JB and Joe D'leo now using a completely different set of analogs in an effort to explain why their Pioneer (analog model) failed. The new analog is 1959, I think. Just be prepared to sweep wet snow off of your Memorial Day Weekend picnic table, before setting it.

It is not the winter that is going down the drain, it is the models and the entire meteorological science taking the hit. Somehow it must be explained why the analogs did not work out, and seemed to be running independent of the OPs, or the other way around if you like. I think we are now prone, and vulnerable to a major non-predicted weather phenomenon---that goes beyond this winter. Just look at the GEFS 16-day Snow Accumulation. Never showed even a low probability of the average 3"-4.5" typical 16-day total ever happening Everyone of 75 different daily runs should have shown this. It ran up as high as 17" with a 60% chance on a few occasions, and still nothing happened or even threaten to happen. The last run I recorded, indicated a 50/50 chance of 6" for the first 16 days of Feb. What did it for me, was the fact that the models could not even muster up a fantasy snowstorm, which told me we were never close to the real thing.

Next 8 days averaging 39degs., or 4degs. AN. 8 straight daily negative SOI contributions not helping yet.

Next 8 days averaging 36degs., or about 1deg. AN.

Next 8 days averaging 39degs., or about 4degs. AN. 34.3* here at 6am, no precip. 33.9* here at 7am, no precip. 34.1* here at 8am, no precip. 33.4* here at 9am, lite snow, since 8:30am. 30.3* here at 10am, mod. snow. 29.1* here at 11am, lite snow. 30.0* here at Noon, mod. snow. 30.5* here at 1pm, mod. snow.

What made it stink even more was the hype given the potential we had going in, according to the likes of JB, who is still praying for a big one and along with the single digit readings---will hail his forecast to be right. Overall, his forecast is a shambles.

GFSx still down for a third day. Strange, since it worked fine during the 35 day government shutdown. From other sources, the next 8 days are averaging 36degs., about 2degs AN. Nothing spectacular showing on the NAEFS either, for the next 15 days. I say this winter is over, save a surprise event. Month to date is +3.5[ 37.2 ].

GFSx was down today. Maybe it euthanized itself. If it comes back online, it better show something good. We are about to blow a potential 40" at 10:1 during the next 16 days, and not even a fantasy storm is showing up with about 5 tries. We must still be a long way from the real thing, because the models are not good enough to not slip up at least once.

Just by looking at a MOS table such as the MeteoStar type, you can immediately see that nothing is going to change snow wise for two more weeks. All precipitation periods show the 850mb T's gleefully jumping above 0C each time some frozen stuff is possible. Of course that Feb. 23 is probably the result of a putative P8 MJO by then, another dubious hoop to get through. JB and his cohort at WeatherBell say it is going to happen, just 4 or 6 weeks after it was suppose to. Always 10 days away as the dog runs the circle faster and faster trying catch his own tail.

Next 8 days averaging 36degs., or 2degs. AN. EURO/GEFS are both about 4" for Tues.

JB still hawking his 2/15-3/15. I am convinced he is mentally ill, with a condition boxers, football players and wrestlers whose head has slammed the canvas too many times have. Either that or he is able to 'lie passed the truth', better than anyone. btw: SD just canceled anything for March, as he pointed out a SSCE is starting and will be tighten up the PV for good in 3 weeks. The GEFS has produced 75 traveling '16 day periods' which had less than an inch of Snow each in reality, but never ever, even showed something like 2" or 3" with a low probability. Once it reached 17" and a 70% chance! Must have been fed some heaping bad hootch, for that one!!

Next 8 days averaging 38degs., or 4degs. AN.

Under the guiding principal of "EVERYBODY PLAYS THE FOOL, THERE'S NO EXCEPTION TO THE RULE. IT MAY BE FACTUAL-IT MAY BE CRUEL, the CMC steps up to the plate to show the storm as the GFS/EURO get set to show more rain than anything. The FV3 is untested, unproven. Wonder what a reanalysis of all the models is going to show for the winter. MJO/ENSO/TeleConn. outlooks must be among the worst.

Keeping track of winter to date and what we need to get to Normal by winter's end. Hopefully the last column goes positive quickly. However, projecting to day 40, we could be at +4.6, -3.7---worst case. Day # Degs. +/- Winter td . ToNormal 32. +097 +3.0 -1.7 33. +102 +3.1 -1.8 34. +108 +3.2 -1.9 35. +116 +3.3 -2.1 36. +127 +3.5 -2.4 37. +134 +3.6 -2.5 CFS is 16AN 14BN on the next 30 days. 38. +131 +3.4 -2.5 CFS is 20AN 10BN on the next 30 days. 39. +138 +3.5 -2.7 40. +146 +3.7 -2.9 41. +145 +3.5 -3.0 CFS is 20BN 10AN on the next 30 days. Nice improvement. 42 +139 +3.3 -2.9 Estimating a +2.8 for the first half of the winter ie. by Day 46. 43. +135 +3.1 -2 8 44. +132 +3.0 -2.9 45. +127 +2.8 -2.8 46. +126 +2.7 -2.9 47. +129 +2.7 -3.0 48. +126 +2.6 -3.0 49. +128 +2.6 -3.1 50. +131 +2.6 -3.3 CFS is 20BN 10AN on the next 30 days. Snow to date is 7.1", probably should be 11.5" by Jan. 19th. 51. +127 +2.5 -3.3 52. +104 +2.0. -2.7 53. +094 +1.8 -2.5 54. +104 +1.9 -2.9 55. +119 +2.2 -3.4 56. +121 +2.2 -3.6 57. +118 +2.1 -3.6 58. +126 +2.2 -3.9 59. +125 +2.1 -4.0 60. +126 +2.1 -4.2 61. +114 +1.9 -3.9 Feb. has its work cut out for it (a little easier after today is assimilated here) to get us to Normal T/Snow. We are at 7.5" snow as Jan. ends----already 7.5" BN and now add 9" for Feb. itself and we need to see 16"/17" during Feb. 62. +090 +1.5 -3.2 63. +073 +1.2 -2.7 64. +065 +1.0 -2.5 65. +075 +1.2. -3.0 66. +092. +1.4. -3.8 67. +109 +1.6 -4.7 68. +116 +1.7 -5.3 69. +128 +1.9 -6.1 70. +138 +2.0 -6.9

Next 8 days averaging 34degs., or just Normal. EURO has been 3",8",9",9", and now 5" on putative storm. GFS is 12", CMC is a Trace.

That is not a snow forecast. It shows exactly how many flakes will fall. LOL Speaking of flakes, JB is sure his cold and snowy 2/15--3/15 forecast will be right and start sooner. It will be colder than the latest EURO Weeklies showed, which were mensa, mensa,-----he said today for the record. The BN stuff barely gets here, when it checks out of the hotel under cover of darkness.

Next 8 days averaging 40degs., or 6degs. AN. 5 R/S events in a week 2/12-2/19. None look like All Snow. GEFS/GEPS never more than a glancing exposure to BN heights. JB still making up new analogs to suit his fancy. Portland, OR has better looking charts than we do! 45.5* here at 6am.

COLD AIR AVAILABLE ..............By Appointment Only----ask for JB S N O W.........leave a Big Tip. GEFS has about 5/16 days as BN GEPS has just 1/16 days as BN

Next 8 days are averaging 42degs., or 8 degs. AN.

Next 8 days averaging 42degs., or 8 degs. AN.

Next 8 days averaging 42degs., or 8 degs. AN. 18.5* here at 6am.