CIK62

3" to 8" covers all the models for NYC. The GFS[Cobb Method is No Snow at all] is at the bottom and CMC at the top along with the EURO. The EURO still goes sub-zero here on the 7th. {three of the last five 12hr.Runs has shown this} which is ridiculous and could mean the EURO needs to detox itself before making any more snow forecasts which have bombed {not bombed out--- unfortunately} all winter. Remember not all the precipitation in this system is going to be snow. So who knows what will actually be left.

EURO is smoking something again. Calls for 6" Sun/Mon, then for the coldest temperature ever in March, 2* on the morning of the 7th., maybe even -5*. Bad weed going round, the GEM had it yesterday, wears off in a day but probably damages the computer engines. lol.

Next 8 days averaging 33degs., or about 6degs. BN. 32.0* here at 6am., lite snow, 2" so far? 32.0* here at 7am., lite snow 33.2* here at 8am., no precip. 34.2* here at 9am, no precip. 35.8* here at 10am.

Next 8 days averaging 33degs., or 5degs. BN. 30.3*, lite snow here at 6am. 30.7*, lite snow here at 7am.---embedded 2-min. squall around 6:45am made it seem like the real thing. 30.9*, snow over with I think, here at 8am. 32.5* at 9am ---character of precip. changed for the final hour. Another wasted effort in the books. 36.5* at 10am. That was fast. Just 12hrs. from another garbage show. Even the nighttime might not help us. EURO is 3" for Sat., and 4" for Sun./Mon. The model has been clueless all winter w/o the favorable TC's and probably has these incorporated (on purpose as favorable to see what might happen, I guess) in its engine output somehow and is not using pure fluid mechanics and physics. The lobotomized GEFS is 8" Sun./Mon. and then 4" more a few days later. With any blocking, real or psuedo, I am sure 15"-20" is possible by Mar. 11. Lol!

Feb. ended at +0.9[36.2]. DJF ended at +1.4[36.3] Most predicted -1.0, with above normal Snowfall. A sd unit is 2.4*. I think anyone who called for a Normal winter with a positive T bias gets partial credit, or more, if they got their reasoning right too.

Keeping track of winter to date and what we need to get to Normal by winter's end. Hopefully the last column goes positive quickly. However, projecting to day 40, we could be at +4.6, -3.7---worst case. Day # Degs. +/- Winter td . ToNormal 32. +097 +3.0 -1.7 33. +102 +3.1 -1.8 34. +108 +3.2 -1.9 35. +116 +3.3 -2.1 36. +127 +3.5 -2.4 37. +134 +3.6 -2.5 CFS is 16AN 14BN on the next 30 days. 38. +131 +3.4 -2.5 CFS is 20AN 10BN on the next 30 days. 39. +138 +3.5 -2.7 40. +146 +3.7 -2.9 41. +145 +3.5 -3.0 CFS is 20BN 10AN on the next 30 days. Nice improvement. 42 +139 +3.3 -2.9 Estimating a +2.8 for the first half of the winter ie. by Day 46. 43. +135 +3.1 -2 8 44. +132 +3.0 -2.9 45. +127 +2.8 -2.8 46. +126 +2.7 -2.9 47. +129 +2.7 -3.0 48. +126 +2.6 -3.0 49. +128 +2.6 -3.1 50. +131 +2.6 -3.3 CFS is 20BN 10AN on the next 30 days. Snow to date is 7.1", probably should be 11.5" by Jan. 19th. 51. +127 +2.5 -3.3 52. +104 +2.0. -2.7 53. +094 +1.8 -2.5 54. +104 +1.9 -2.9 55. +119 +2.2 -3.4 56. +121 +2.2 -3.6 57. +118 +2.1 -3.6 58. +126 +2.2 -3.9 59. +125 +2.1 -4.0 60. +126 +2.1 -4.2 61. +114 +1.9 -3.9 Feb. has its work cut out for it (a little easier after today is assimilated here) to get us to Normal T/Snow. We are at 7.5" snow as Jan. ends----already 7.5" BN and now add 9" for Feb. itself and we need to see 16"/17" during Feb. 62. +090 +1.5 -3.2 63. +073 +1.2 -2.7 64. +065 +1.0 -2.5 65. +075 +1.2. -3.0 66. +092. +1.4. -3.8 67. +109 +1.6 -4.7 68. +116 +1.7 -5.3 69. +128 +1.9 -6.1 70. +138 +2.0 -6.9 Next 3 weeks need to be about 7degs. BN to get us to Normal for DJF. 71. +132 +1.9 -6.9 72. +127 +1.8 -7.0 73. +127 +1.7 -7.5 74. +123 +1.7 -7.7 With 1.2" snow, still need 15"/16" in next 16 days. 75. +125 +1.7 -8.3 76. +130 +1.7 -9.3 77. +146 +1.9 -11.2 78. +151 +1.9 -12.6 79. +147 +1.9 -13.4 80. +145 +1.8 -14.5 81. +139 +1.7 -15.4 82. +133 +1.6 -16.6 83. +140 +1.7 -20.0 84. +144 +1.7 -24.0 85. +144 +1.7 -28.8 86. +149 +1.7 -37.2 87. +148 +1.7 -49.3 88. +142 +1.6 -71.0 Dec. 40.1 +2.6 Trace Jan. 32.5 -0.1 1.1" Feb. 36.7 +1.7 2.5" M2 and for reference: Nov. 44.4 -3.3 6.4" 89. +131 +1.5 -131.0 90. +125 +1.4 xxxxxxxx Just one more day.

Last day of Feb. averaging 35degs., or 2degs. BN. Month to date is +1.3[36.4]. Should end Feb. at +1.2[36.5]. All 8 days are averaging 33degs., or 5degs. BN. Car tops white, beach white and that's it. 30* here at 6am.

SD had 12 minute litany, of Kill-Joy Facts about the next 10 days in his video today. Hard to watch if you'd like to see a snowstorm.

Last two days of Feb. averaging 32degs., or 5degs. BN. Month to date is +1.7[36.7]. Should end month at +1.0[36.3]. All 8 days are averaging 34degs., or about 4degs. BN. EURO has lost the 8" of Snow in the next 10 days. GEFS has been unconscience all winter and never changes. Less than 1" on all outputs tonight. They go north of the City w/o phasing, due to bad TC's. Last week the joke EURO had 16" for one run here. It did these one-run-runoffs all winter. "GIVE ME SNOW---OR GIVE ME SPRING"

Last three days of Feb. averaging 30degs., or 6degs. BN. Month to date is +2.1[37.0]. Should end Feb. at +1.0[36.2]. All 8 days averaging 33degs., or 4degs. BN. EURO is 8" for the next 10 days. The GEFS is 5" on the next 10 days. Concerning the mid-month warming in two weeks mentioned in previous entry, the RRWT is BN till 3/15, then Normal for a week and BN again 3/23---04/01. Then it is AN. The next 30 days are BN for the northeast and most of western Europe.

Remainder of Feb. averaging 33degs., or 3 degs. BN. ClimoSummary site not updating for two days.

Not a pretty sight if you like white. The RRWT which I have not looked at recently is BN for March in the northeast, and all the way into W. Europe.

Advance today's GFS 6 days and the March 2 storm looks like at instant replay of today.

Remainder of Feb. averaging 36degs., or just Normal. Month to date is . Should end Feb. at . All 8 days averaging 38degs., or about 1deg. AN.

The anticipated, more El Nino like coupled pattern, is just 'old wine---new bottles'. Just like calling NAFTA "USMCA" or whatever non-changes emerge from the China Trade negotiations---US taxpayers will pay more for less. Buy your suntan lotion while it is still relatively cheap and stop talking about snowstorms till and if one is 48hrs. away on all models.

Remainder of Feb. averaging 38degs., or 2degs. AN. Month to date is +2.2[36.8]. Should end Feb. at +2.1[37.4].

Remainder of Feb. averaging 41degs., or 5degs AN. Month to date is +2.1[36.7]. Feb. should end at about +2.6[37.8]. All 8 days averaging 40degs., or 4degs. AN. March 3 storm already degenerated into the same old setups we've been seeing all winter.

Don't know if mention was made of the fact that one year ago today we experienced the hottest Feb. day ever 78*, highest 500mb heights too I think, in the hottest month of Feb ever, but still managed about 5" of total snow for the month. Speaking of bulbs, I hope the one in JB's head is lit now. Maybe March can pull a 1960 type miracle and be the coldest month of the season. Hard to do with a normal Jan. The other two could be months could be beaten if the atmosphere does not obey the analogs completely and misbehaves on the cold side.

Next 8 days averaging 42degs., or 6degs. AN. Month to date is +1.9[36.4]. Feb. should end at +3.1[38.0]. The whole meteorological winter should end near +2.0. JB had -1 for us. 1SD is 2.4degs.

Are we still (NYC) in the running for fewest days in a season with at least 1" of snow or more, on the ground? Maybe two days in Nov. and one this month. 1972-73 probably wins here, not sure though. Comments. Thank You MV.

Next 8 days averaging 41degs., or 5degs. AN. Month to date is +2.3[36.8]. Should be +3.1[38.0] by the 28th. As I predicted, the buffoon Euro went from 16" to 2" in one run for the 27th. GEFS still has its hands in its pocket, playing with something.

Euro is 16"{975mb BM storm} for the 27th. Previous run was 3". Hey, that 16" is exactly what we need to make DJF look normal at 24/25". The GEFS knows nothing about it. I was reporting these two buffoon outputs daily---till the start of Feb. GEFS has actually cut its16-day snows in half, in the last four runs. It really should have been looking like it does now, the whole winter!

Next 8 days averaging 40degs., or about 4degs. AN. Month to date is +2.8[37.2]. Should be +3.2[38.1] by the 27th.

Fond memories here of freezing almost everyday till Feb. 10. There was prep time too, as Oct./Nov. were also BN. There is an episode of Kojak which contained a scene at the Battery Park promenade with the Statue of Liberty in the background, filmed at this time. Kojak and his 'contact' are obviously freezing and it looks like blocks of ice all the way out to the Statue.