CIK62

The next 8 days averaging 46degs., or 2degs.AN. Month to date is -2.3[38.1]. Should be -1.0 [40.5] by the 27th. EURO already down to 1" of Snow for the 27th-28th. GEFS has little chance of seeing anything. Oops! CMC's turn now. 16" with all the trimmings. Probably thinks it sees a TS.

The next 8 days averaging 46degs., or 2degs. AN. Month to date is -2.2[38.0]. Should be -0.8[40.6] by the 26th. EURO has 7" of Snow on Mar. 27- 28. GEFS has 10% chance of any snow. Yes, the EURO wants to get one more error/bust in there while it can. It blew temps. by 20 degs., closer-in during first week of March, [-5 to +2] and now asks you to believe a 1 deg., "snow/rain" margin of error on Day 10!

Next 8 days averaging 44degs., or 1deg. AN. Month to date is -2.1[37.9]. Should be -1.1[40.0] by the 25th.

Next 8 days averaging 42degs., or 1deg. BN. Month to date is -2.6[37.3]. Should be -2.1[38.9] by the 24th.

FWIW>>>RRWT is BN here on the 'Next 30 Days'.

Next 8 days averaging 44degs., or 1deg. AN. Month to date is -4.2[35.5]. Should be -2.3[38.6] by the 23rd. 47*---48*, variable at 6am here. 48*---50*, variable with drizzle at 7am here. Bouncy T, 46.4*, broken skies at 8am here. Up to 52.7* at 10am, clouds and some sun. Already 58* at 10:30am! 60.0* at 10:45am! 61.7* at 11:00am with clouds/breaks. 62.0 at 11:07am.

Next 8 days are averaging 46degs., or about 3degs. AN. Month to date is -5.2[34.5]. Should be -2.0[38.9] by the 22nd.

Next 8 days averaging 46degs., or 4degs. AN. Month to date is -5.5[34.0]. Should be -1.7[38.8] by the 21st. PS to the post below. Winter ended Dec. 1.

Next 8 days averaging 45degs., or 3degs. AN. Month to date is -5.9[33.5]. Should be -2.1[38.3] by the 20th.

The next 12 months are all AN as always. During the last 65 months the AN are 2:1 over BN here . Blue is banned nationwide for the next 12 months. Four months should sneak in with BN's here anyway. Your job is to guess which ones. Even Nov. -3 3, was progged AN all through Oct. So anything can happen. LR forecasting is non-statistically supported. I said it before, just keep saying the next 30 days are going to be AN and you will look smart to the layman..

I use weighted averages. (10/18)(-7) +(8/18)(+5) = -1.7. Problem is GFSx does not match your normals.

Next 8 days averaging 46degs., or 5degs. AN. Month to date is -7.0[32.3]. Should be -1.7[38.3] by the 19th.

Next 8 days averaging 45degs., or about 4degs. AN. Month to date is -7.6[31.5]. Should be -2.1[37.9] by the 18th. Temp. here is between 39*---40* during 7am---8am and all rain. 41.5* by 9am. 42.0* by 10am. While it may be a little BN Twise starting in a week, GFS has no precipitation at all, beginning at the same time, and for the duration.

Next 8 days averaging 45degs., or 4degs. AN. GFS 57*, EURO 71* on the 15th.

Period to watch is 3/17-23. Semi-favorable TCs, while it still matters some. Anyone know what it indicates when the Control Member is off-scale[ >6sd] for a week, while the Mean is just 1sd, during same timeframe. Specifically, this is for the EURO's EPO the first week of April: -6sd versus -1sd. I thought the start of April might be AN. Wondering now if home openers for Mets/Yanks are winterlike at night.

Next 8 days averaging 42degs., or about 2degs AN. Just 28* here at 6am, 29* at 7am. 32* already by 8:15am. 35.7* by 10am. 37.2* by Noon.

We cannot rely on the EURO since it has become a 'space cadet model' this winter. It developed the bad habit of showing major snow events as 'one run specials'. Its T's were not on target as I have spoken about. It apparently could not handle the non-linking of the upper atmosphere with the weak Nino zones any better than the other models. Since gaining a reputation by getting Hurricane Sandy's left-hand turn to the coast right, 6 hours before other models, it needs to hire an agent to help win back its shine. Its escutcheon plate is severely scratched and its MJO prediction mentioned above can not be trusted. The big cities may have to deal with cold for the last two weeks of the month, but snow is statistically just a leftover echo of winter there. Friday night is just a TRACE, since the disorganized mish-mash passes south of the City with almost no precipitation now.

Next 8 days averaging near 40degs., or just about Normal. 19.7* here at 5am. 19.9* here at 6am. 21.2* here at 7am. 24.9* by 9am. The only period that might produce any snow around here is now 3/17-3/23. Gotta love the EURO/GEFS going nearly snowless for their prediction periods now---when they should have looked this way to be accurate, all winter. EURO had T problems too. Like the ridiculous GFS string of 100 to 107 degree days last summer, the EURO insisted on record T's in the current cold spell.

Next 8 days averaging 37degs., or about 3degs. BN. 19.8* here at 6am. 19.4* here at 7am.

The next 8 days are averaging 36degs., or 3degs. BN. 23.9* here at 6am.

The next 8 days are averaging 35degs., or 4degs. BN.

Not being talked about is the fact that the EURO has been indicating all time low March temps for the 6th and/or 7th. for at least 4 runs. Ranging from -5* to +2*. It has also stayed with 8"/9" for the storm.

Next 8 days averaging 33degs., or 6degs. BN. 36.8* here at 6am. with a hazy looking summery sky. 38.1* here by 8am., 40.0* by 9am., 42.0* by 10am.

HEADLINE: Winter Storm Watch issued March 02 at 9:51PM EST until March 04 at 7:00AM EST by NWS New York City - Upton DESCRIPTION: ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Moderate to heavy wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Connecticut and southeast New York including New York City and Long Island. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. INSTRUCTIONS: A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts. Issued By: NWS New York City - Upton (Long Island and New York City)

Well, at 4:30PM you may catch the start of the precipitation and it could be R/S mix at the surface. You should still have time to drive home, before any snow accumulations, if they happen at all.