CIK62

Last 2 days of May are averaging 69degs., or 2degs. AN. Month to date is -0.3[61.8]. May should end at -0.1[62.3]. Call it Normal. Clouds/rain killed the AN predictions for last week of May. Rain so far 17 days>= .01, 11 days = 0.0, 1T.

62.2* here. Feeble afternoon sunshine with faint shadows, failed to de-stabilize the lower atmosphere to go with the mid-level instability---so I bet cells die as usual and we have mostly rain.

Last 3 days of May are averaging 71.5degs., or 4degs. AN. Month to date is -0.2[61.8]. May should end near +.3[62.7]. Biggest problem today looks like heavy rain by 2pm.

Wonder if waterspout tornado passed just off CI at 10:20pm. I don't think it was a gustnado, since rain etc. ended almost immediately after this, and F0's come before the rain etc., I believe. No hail noted at any rate. OLD INFO NOW but I think got this with the 60mph gusts mentioned. HEADLINE: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued May 28 at 10:17PM EDT until May 28 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS New York City - Upton DESCRIPTION: The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Queens County in southeastern New York... Kings County in southeastern New York... * Until 1100 PM EDT. * At 1017 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over The Verrazano Narrows Bridge, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. * This severe thunderstorm will be near... Flatbush and Coney Island around 1020 PM EDT.<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<my emphasis. Did not see this message before it happened. Canarsie and Sheepshead Bay around 1025 PM EDT. Rockaway Beach around 1035 PM EDT. HAIL...1.50IN WIND...60MPH INSTRUCTIONS: For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Issued By: NWS New York City - Upton (Long Island and New York City)

The last 4 days of May are averaging 69.6degs., or about 2.5degs. AN. Month to date is -0.3[61.6]. May should end at +0.3[62.7].

Last 5 days of May are averaging 70.5degs., or about 3.5degs. AN. Month to date is -0.5[61.2]. May should end near +0.4[62.7]. We may end May with a total of 20 rainy days plus one T. On beach yesterday it was pleasant except from near 2:30pm to 3pm when breeze suddenly quit and T rose several degrees.

Isn't it taken for granted that any 3-month (seasonal forecast) will come in AN a disproportionate number of times, like weighted dice? The average age of all Top Ten Coolest Summers [NYC] is about 120 years. For all the Top Ten Warmest, the age is about 35 years! I am guessing this extends all the way down/up the line in both cases. It appears sagacious to say nothing, unless you really have evidence for BN. Did you consider the Stratospheric Warming which is affecting southern latitudes too, as of late? Weaker SE Ridge a possible outcome here. I am hoping for short-term heatwaves of three or fewer days duration. Your 26, 90-degree days implies at least one 5/6+stretch, I would bet.

Last 6 days of May are averaging 72degs., or 5degs. AN. Month to date is -0.8[60.7] May should end at +0.6[63.0]. But 'Stratospheric Warming' now over lower latitudes too may weaken the SE Ridge to make it "even Steven" with Greenland Block weakening. 61.5* here at 5am, 62.5* at 6am, 64.2* at 7am,. 68.7* by 9am. 71.2* by 10am. 73* at 11am. 76.0* at Noon.

Last 7 days of May are averaging 72.3degs., or about 5degs. AN Month to date is -0.8[60.6]. May should end near +0.8[63.2]. GFS still with a four day heatwave, topping at 95/30th. EURO has one 90. Remember for early last July the GFS had 5 100* days in a row---topping 106* twice! Reality kept peak at 96*, during that stretch. Let's see if it is any better now.

The last 8 days of May are averaging 73degs., or 6.5degs. AN. Month to date is -0.9[60.4]. May should end near +1.0[63.5]. EURO covers its face and walks off the stage after lowering its high for 5/29 by 20 degrees---95>>>>75! Yesterday it had raised it by 26 degrees 69>>>>95! Maybe it should just wait till the 30th., to tell us what is going to happened.

Next 8 days are averaging 71degs., or 5degs. AN. Month to date is -0.9[60.2]. Should be +0.6[63.0] by the 31st. Looks like hot air coastal creep for the 29th- 30th. EURO at 94* for City, but way lower at JFK(me-by inference?) GFS is 90* with 20*C 850mb. T.

Next 8 days averaging 68.4degs., or 3degs. AN. Month to date is -1.0[60.0]. Should be +0.1[62.3] by the 30th.

Next 8 days averaging 68degs., or about 2.5degs. AN. Month to date is -1.0[59.9]. Should be near 0.0[62.3] by the 29th. Most spots beat Central Park, including my 87.8* yesterday.

EURO is 91* NYC on Day 10, but 72* for JFK! EURO Weeklies are BN 6/3---6/24, with a change during last week of run. GEFS goes flat in early June with 500mb. Meanwhile good WAA today, till possible TS's step to the plate, say by 4pm.

Next 8 days are averaging 67degs., or 2 degs. AN. Month to date is -1.7[59.0]. Should be -0.6[61.4] by the 28th. 61.5* here at 6am. Already 65.3* by 7am. 69.5* by 8am. 71.7* by 9am. 76.6* by 10am. 78.5* by 11am. Made 80.0* at 11:45am. 80.4* by Noon. 83.0* at 1pm, sandstorm on beach, cumulus moving in. Whirlwind was short lived and I am now at 87.8* at 3pm+clouds. Looked like temp. was stuck near 84* for a while. 82.5* at 4pm+clouds and breezy.

Next 8 days are averaging 68degs., or about 3degs. AN. Month to date is -2.0[58.5]. Should be about -0.4[61.4] by the 27th. Just got clipped here by a lite shower, at about 7am, 61*.

Next 8 days are averaging 70degs., or about 6degs. AN. Month to date is -2.3 [58.1]. Should be +0.2[61.8] by the 26th. First Half-Marathon finishers have arrived here in CI under blue skies and 61.5*.(about 8am) Core runners continue to arrive in droves under blue skies and 63.0*.(9am) I believe it was raining last year for this event. Large numbers of runners still arriving at 10am, 64.5*. It is stragglers and walkers now at 11am, 66.3* All over by Noon, 68.5*.

Drizzled for an hour, now over, but clouds to persist? Down from 74 to 69 now, near 2PM.

Next 8 days still averaging 68degs., or 4degs. AN. Month to date is -2.8[57.5]. Should be -0.6[61.0] by the 25th.

Ad-Free Secondary Group 2,412 posts Location:ConeyIsland Report post Posted 3 hours ago Next 8 days averaging 68degs., or 4degs. AN. Month to date is -3.0[57.2]. Should be -0.5[61.1] by the 24th.

Next 8 days averaging 64.5degs., or 1deg. AN. Month to date is -2.8[57.2]. Should be -1.4[59.8], by the 23rd. 46.5* here at 6am, and no APB needed to find the sun.

But 8 years is not a long enough time frame either. Scoring was against the outdated 1981-2010 standard anyway. Why not just rate our winters against that of Moscow's or something like that. Then we could be above normal virtually everyday of the winter, that is, any day that is less than 20 degrees below our own standard. Look, no one is an expert here---helio-physicists say look for 70% of the days this year to have a blank sun, if we are really in trouble. Currently this year the number is in the upper 50% to 60% range.

Not a lot different from yesterday:

Next 8 days are averaging 65degs., or about 2degs. AN. Month to date is -1.9[57.9]. Should be -0.4[60.6]by the 22nd. Was 46.4* at 6am. The difference between EURO/GFS high T's must be a record >>> 70 versus 95 during 5/19-5/23.

Good for about 25-30 degrees, from lowest temperature to highest temperature over the next two weeks. Not very impressive {45-75), plus wind direction will have to be modeled correctly to get this [else BDCF}, unless this is already part of above calculation by the model. Then the 80's would be possible if model is wrong, and 75 is the worst we will do.