CIK62

Technically speaking, today was the first day of Climatological Winter and so a new winter banter forum should be started. It runs from Nov. 27 to Mar. 24 and represents the bottom quartile of daily mean temperatures which indicates the range should be all days with a mean T between 43-31 degrees. The bottom of the NYC winter comes in and around Jan. 24.

Once BN period starts near the Dec. 10th., it lasts till the New Year, when AN or just Normal temps. return---------probably muted by a hopefully large, thick snow blanket by that time. I have not seen the 'Next 45' this cold>>>>>6BN in recent memory. I hope this is not a CFS headfake. Also since next 2 weeks look to be +5, the period after the 10th. would need to be 11BN to finish 6BN!. FANTASY TERRITORY

EURO WEEKLIES [11/23] have record cold near Christmas, then flip by 50 degrees !!! for NYD. GFS slowly rotates the Polar Vortex to the east (from over Asia) and seems to want to get it here (over Hudson Bay) by mid-Dec. Go to Instant Weather Maps to see this. Image will not link.

We can use the next 20 to 25 (12/09 period looks OK) days as a Tax Write Off loss to the winter. Even Joe Besardi not cheering it anymore for now. BUT I MUST WARN EVERYONE THAT THE CFS BANS THE RED HUES FOR 6 STRAIGHT MONTHS, CONTINENT WIDE, STARTING WITH JAN., BEFORE BURNING OUR FERNS IN JULY/AUG.

Only hope now for Dec. is on,either side of the 12th., for a few days each way. CFS came in warmer again. Next 15 days. Could be worse, I suppose.

Nov. 28 to Dec. 21 looks like dead winter meat, that will spoil while hanging on the fence. Maybe brief normalcy near the 10th. Looks good thru first week of Jan. after astronomical start of winter though. Next 7 days meanwhile are averaging 45degs. now, maybe a +1 or +2 to kick off this AN period.

Next 15 days look like a bore and little more. We keep showing up in a dry slot and temps. are going nowhere.

Talk of Christmas songs, instead of Christmas snow. Sounds like everyone is conseding a boring December is on the way. I agree, till mid-month anyway. Just a reminder that CFS goes bananas with Jan., Feb., Mar., Apr., May and June showing a continental wide freeze of -3 to -15 degs. It banishes the red hues and seems to want to start a new Little Ice Age on North America. Maybe it knows of some volcanic or celestial occurence that will befall us. Lol. Oh, and yes, my favorite Chirstmas album would be Phil Spector's from '63 or '64.

CFS's December Outlook still looks awful.

I would never want any of these 'experts' to be a witness for me-----but I would love to have the pleasure of cross examining them. I will just stick to the CFS, bad as it is, which keeps telling the story of a late winter that lasts beyond the meteorological winter by two months. It practically banishes the red hues by Jan.---from the whole continent. To show the futility here, the JMA has generally BN for the next 3-4 weeks, and CFS is AN. These 'critters' would have trouble beating a stopped clock. Now if I only could find my Tarot Cards, the ones with the NAO, PNA, EPO, WPO, EL NINO, LA NINA, LA NADA, MODOKI, QBO, SSW etc. ------ I would make my own predictions. Oh here is a good substitute. My collection of used Chinese ChopSticks. Why, I'll just tossed them into air and read their entrails---and the answer is.......................... TBC.

The period 11/28---12/15, seems forfeited to the heat gods as downpayment for what will follow till June>>>CFS.

Get with the facts. CFS is warm for Dec. Then it goes ballistically and statistically RECORD COLD for the whole continent. We turn green with envy. Green is 10 degs. F BN for everyone, everywhere. Obviously suspect. Check it out. Nice computer game for a child to play with.

Get ready for 5 or 6 weeks of AN boredom according to the CFS. This starts before this month ends and is still going by Jan. 1. PV retreats to other side of pole and any troughs we get have no real cold air feeding them anyway. Big negative AO for a short time is not as good as a moderate one that lasts. JB still likes BN Dec. based on his own analogs. Pray that he is playing a meteorologist and not a lawyer with this one-----he went against grain with Nov., and should be limping into home plate a winner. What do Jimmy Soul (1963 #1 Hit) and most of the USA have in common? They are both 'married' to an Ugly Looking CFS Model.

CFS still playing 'dirty pool' by getting progressively colder, relative to normal, as new year progresses---then it gives us pizza oven heat suddenly in July/August. THANKS, I DIDN'T NEED THAT. As for Dec.-----get ready to give 2015 competition, it warns.

The CFS is all red in the face again for the next 45 days, nationwide. If anyone said something to offend this model, please apologize now----- before there is a run on AC's in Dec.

And this is how Dec. looks on the latest 10 day:

After Dec., CFS is very cold now for everyone, everywhere gentlemen. Really shocking that all the latest 10 day runs are Cold everywhere now. Feb./Mar like -5C's. What are they feeding this model, tainted snowballs?

EURO Control for next 46 days kicks Dec. off with a marshmallow roasting contest and basically has some accidental cold every 4 or 5 days, lasting 1 day or so as the month drags by. Going to be a late winter or no winter, if you ask me. Hey, where have I seen this before? Well you told me not to use the CFS. lol Really---I can mark 2BN days in the first halve of the month.

The latest 10-day period, 40 runs, of the CFS Winter Forecast is hopeful. Cold now looks to invade south and cover 80% of the country, but not us....yet. Older runs showed only some hope in the Pacific NW .http://models.weatherbell.com/cfs/2017111118/noram/cfs_anom3_t2m_noram_201712_avg.php#

Last 10 days of Nov. definitely favor BN by the CFS. First 10 days of Dec are a tossup, but BN is never positioned far from us. 'Next 45 Days' output actually shows BN for the first time in I do not know how long. btw: The EURO Weeklies reverse these two predictions.

Next 8 days averaging 44degs., or about 3degs. BN. Just under 25degs., (where it was all night, just about)here in CI now.

JB continues to stress his belief the CFS is dead wrong on heat in the East. Next 6 weeks plus will be wicked, he says. Ski to your heart's delight in northeast too.

Presented for your viewing pleasure, the CFS opinion on December, based on the latest 40 runs: Do Not Stare at it, out of fear of cauterizing your retinas. Some of the individual runs have Hudson Bay 30 degrees above normal. It is just a game folks. This Too Shall Pass.

First 3 weeks of Dec. look bloody red, on the CFS. JB acknowledges the sauna-looking December appearance, but insists it is wrong.

Your theory works if we are not chasing a moving target. If anything, a shorter time frame like 20 years, updated every other year should be shown along side the longest recording period available----1869 onward, in order to view the change or at least the current most trend. What has happened here is what would happen if you were rolling fair dice and suddenly someone substituted loaded dice. The number 7 would be skewed upward. The earlier collected data would look to be in error. Sounds like our temperatures and precipitation to me. More snow falls now because precipitation has increased 15% since the mid 1960's, even using the 5 year drought just before that time means little, it is nothing but a small echo to the average. In the winter, till NYC warms too much, this means more snow.