CIK62

Next 8 days averaging 79degs., or 3.5degs. AN. 76.1* here at 6am. 79.0* by 10am with T going up and down with the sea fog going in and out here. btw: Surf Ave now closed bet. W.12th. ---W.15th for NATHAN'S HOT DOG EATING CONTEST! Trouble holding 80* here, even by 12:30pm. Some Bensonhurst station has his thermometer in the sun or the A/C exhaust and is claiming 93* now!

Next 8 days averaging 79degs., or about 3degs. AN. 77.0* here at 6am. 77.8* at 7am. 80.3* at 8am. First home-grown tropical low (weak), off Hatteras by Mon., the 8th?

Next 8 days averaging 79degs., or 3.5degs. AN. 70.3* here at 6am. 86.5* by 2pm and mostly overcast.

The first 8 days of July are averaging 79.5degs., or 4degs. AN. Top Ten territory for July is 79.6 to 81.4, or +3.1 to +4.9. Average is 76.5. 67.3* here at 6am. 73.5* by 10am. 77.5* by Noon.

Here is a drop for you. BITCOIN just collapsed $1,800 in 15mins.

First 5 days of July look BN with little precipitation.

I was on the roof of the building my city agency occupied on July 4, 1986. This was the Battery Maritime Building ( now being made a hotel?),[@27:53 in ABC Part 1-bottom right, green patch] where you get the Governors Island Ferry. Mayor Koch and the Commissioner(s) were just below me in the Comm's. Off. A police security detail was with us on the roof, and yes, I was wearing a sweat shirt against a ne. wind. But it was 98* a few days later. July 4, 1999 had 101* ×2 around that time. A TS that came early, near Noon, one day that weekend sent the big crowd home and I had a hot, wet beach for myself---I had waited it out in the men's room near me. Lol

Probably this was noted somewhere in the forums already, but KWO-35 has found a new site atop the Empire State Building (using 750w)and has an un-modulated test signal now. KWO-35 left the air 19 months ago and may have full service back by September. Hope a hurricane warning isn't their first transmission. LOL

Isn't it taken for granted that any 3-month (seasonal forecast) will come in AN a disproportionate number of times, like weighted dice? The average age of all Top Ten Coolest Summers [NYC] is about 120 years. For all the Top Ten Warmest, the age is about 35 years! I am guessing this extends all the way down/up the line in both cases. It appears sagacious to say nothing, unless you really have evidence for BN. Did you consider the Stratospheric Warming which is affecting southern latitudes too, as of late? Weaker SE Ridge a possible outcome here. I am hoping for short-term heatwaves of three or fewer days duration. Your 26, 90-degree days implies at least one 5/6+stretch, I would bet.

We are down to exactly Normal for the DJF period, according to the CPC. JB has an exaggerated negative bias where the CPC has Normal throughout SE/MA.

Latest EURO Weeklies look 'cold behind the ears'. This clashes with other LR outputs. Therefore I do not think there will be a Nor'easter till an accidental BN period can occur---ie. when just normal temps. might produce one anyway. I will go with Dec. 11. Hope this is not optimistic. lol.

JB still has all his eggs in the basket of the 'Ash Wed. analog 1962' to our setup in early March. SDiM is not on board with this.

JB, never one to admit he is wrong, is now talking about March as he was about Feb. Rekindling the ghost of Ash Wed. NE of '62 and some strong 1984 event. He just skips by the warmest Feb. ever. If he blows it, I am certain he will merely move on to his hurricane forecast or something about putative global warming theories.

On the paysite. Probably will go public tomorrow AM. CPC output has caved too. Tomorrow we will see what they have to say, since meteorologists there lick their wounds on weekends or party for 48hrs. if they get it right.

NYNJPA waved the white flag and gave up on the remainder of the winter. A wrong way SSW does us in.

And they always made you feel like they are in your city. But the same ACCUWEATHER person can be followed from Boston-Philly-NYC at a different number of minutes after the hour/half hour. Really, for two of the cities they are only looking at a RADAR screen/computer terminal and not out their window! Back around Aug. 05, 1999, NYC was hit by 4 Thunder Storms in 2.5 hours, and WINS did not have a word about it in a "live" report I heard while on the beach, despite the fact I was already getting ready to flee from the imminent storm #1 that PM.

John Coleman of the Weather Channel passed away Jan. 20. He was 83. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/21/obituaries/john-coleman-co-founder-of-the-weather-channel-dies-at-83.html?ribbon-ad-idx=9&rref=obituaries&module=Ribbon&version=context&region=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Obituaries&pgtype=article

So complex, that the writer probably intends to use it support whatever Feb/Mar brings. Meanwhile JB has begun to skip by Feb. and now talks about Mar. saving things.

The CFS is either Clueless or Snowless for the next 33 days around here. It likes your timing.

SDi believes cold and stormy conditions return after Jan. 20th., while JB says Big Thaw. I do not see any conflict till Jan.28 with AN being interrupted.

Right. CMC gives us 8". GFS is zippo.

Thanks for the summary graphics. That little patch of blue must be JB wishing upon a star his theory of combining the Pacific ACE with more traditional ideas is right. LOL! The first 7 days of Dec. will be +6, so a 42 degree surplus will have to be eliminated in the remaining 24 days to get back to normal, about -2. Will come down to last days of month which into the New Year may be AN again.

CFS looks like horror show right now for Jan. We have to hope this is wrong as usual. Based on 850mb. T: Days 1-10 mostly BN Days 11-27 exclusively AN Days 28-31 BN

CFS had one good 6BN 'Next 45 Days' run a few days ago, but its been AN since then.