CIK62

Just made it home from beach. CI being pounded by heavy rain for last 10 mins. (now 4:03pm). Came on fast from the west. Not much thunder. The next 30 mins. were a bore of light rain, a few rumbles, breaks in the cloud cover.

Next 8 days are averaging 75.5degs., or 2degs. AN Month to date is +0.6[76.5]. Should be +1.0[76.2] by the 27th. 75.5* here at 6am. 75.7* at 7am. 76.7* at 8am with an unclean look/feel. 77.0* at 9am, Foggy <3.0miles. Skew-T says this should clear before any rain near 5pm. 79.0* by 11am and hazy blue skies.

Next 8 days averaging 78degs., or 4.5degs. AN. Month to date is +0.4[76.3]. Should be +1.7[76.9] by the 26th. 76.2* here at 6am, Fog <0.1mile. 77.5* at 7am, Fog lifting? 77.0* at 8am, Fog back <0.1mile. 78.0* at 9am, most Fog is gone. 79.7* at 10am with visibility nearing 10 miles.

The Joker Went Wild, and He Couldn't Smile or get the T right!!! On the WU Sheepshead Bay is 45* and Marine Park is 92*. I, on the other hand have 80* at 12:30pm. Like a Hot Wet Mop in your face for the next 5 days.

Next 8 days holding at an average of 79degs., or 5degs. AN. Month to date is +0.1[76.0]. Should be +1.7[77.0] by the 25th. Check out both control members near the 28th-29th period, while GFS merrily has 80's+ forecast anyway: btw: If you want to know what the latest Euro Weeklies are showing, light a candle and sit on it----you will get the idea.

The next 7 days have popped to an average of 82degs., or 8degs. AN. GFS has 13 90-degree days incoming, including two 100's. When are we going to 'stick' the Weather Police on this model? More realistic:

Next 8 days averaging 79degs., or 5degs. AN. Month to date is +0.2[76.2]. Should be +1.9[77.2] by the 24th. 70.0* here at 6am. 75.2* by 10am.

Next 8 days averaging 79degs , or 5degs. AN. Month to date is +0.1[76.1]. Should be +1.8[77.1] by the 23rd. 71.9* here at 6am.

On the "Laughter Curve", the GFS is 16 degrees higher at CP than JFK on the 20th., 83* vs. 99*. [from WeatherBell site] Call it 91*. Hey, I think I am going to start using these models to predict the Stock Market and the Economy around here. Did you hear that Mr. Laffer?!

Next 8 days averaging 78degs., or about 3.5degs. AN. Month to date is -0.1[75.9]. Should be +1.3[75.4] by the 22nd. 75 4* here at 6am. Above Normal, but boring pattern. Remember clouds, rain, and surface winds could prevent the potential +3 to +7 period from fully happening:

Next 8 days averaging 77degs., or about 2.5degs. AN. Month to date is +0.0[76.0]. Should be +1.0[76.4] by the 21st. 75.0* here at 6am. 77.5* by Noon Not much room for temperatures to vary over the next 15 days overall. I would say 82-89 on the highs, with good sunshine and favorable winds at the surface:

Next 8 days averaging 76.5degs., or 1.5degs. AN. Month to date is 0.0[76.0]. Should be +0.6[76.2] by the 20th.

Next 8 days averaging 74degs., or 1 deg. BN. 68.7* here at 6am. 68.1* at 6:30am. 68.0* at 7am. 68.9* at 8am. I think today will have less wind and more sun compared to yesterday's continuous dust devils/clouds over the beach here. Our upcoming hot weather looks confined to the 18th-23rd. now, and may be quickly erased. Weak LP's keep trying to go around the HP rim along the EC too, so far innocently.

Next 8 days averaging 75degs., or just NORMAL. Month to date is +0.7. Should be about +0.3 for the month by the 18th. 68.9* here at 6am. 77.0* by 11am. 78.4* by Noon. Not much evidence showing here for a big heatwave:

Last of the showers just clipped Coney Island pretty good for 15mins. Sun quickly back out. Scattered crowd however waiting for Fireworks here (they'll be OK if still here at 9:45pm LOL )

Area of rain and maybe some lightning heading in my general direction. The cumulus to my west still look innocent enough. Early timing may keep area alive as it hits colder air near ocean. 80.0* at 1:00pm. Got up to about 83*, and it is now 79*(3:15pm) Petering out I think, as there are no new recent lightning strokes indicated. It did die out to my north and I had an hour of good sunshine. Now darker cumulus cover the sky, but probably just going to be a closer call than earlier, I bet.

Next 8 days averaging 75degs., or just NORMAL. 71.6* here at 6am. 76.1* by 10am. No sign of a big warmup here, except just a popup before the next cold front gets here.

Next 8 days averaging 75degs., or just NORMAL. Probably will be just AN for August by mid-month. Temps. may drift higher after the 17th, or maybe they won't. CFSv2 actually says August will be BN, while Japaneese model only sees AN or Normal throughout the NH for the next 3 months. 69.0* here, at 6am. 70.7* by 8am. 76.8* by Noon.

Next 8 days averaging 76.5degs., or 0.5deg. AN. 74.8* here, at 6am.

Either the EURO WEEKLIES have a problem, or we do-----because the predicted anomaly over the next 6 weeks+ is at a record +5F, it would appear. This is from yesterday's output. The CFSv2 looks like the antipodes to the EURO, however.

Next 8 days are averaging 77degs., or 1deg. AN. 75.0* here at 6am.

Next 8 days averaging 77degs., or 1deg. AN. 73.2* here at 6am.

A groovy sun shower in CI right now (6:47pm)...........That cell that limped in from Newark, has dissolved itself in-situ over me---by 7:02pm.

Next 8 days averaging 77degs., or 1deg. AN. I think this 8 day average may go negative soon after a long positive stretch. 74.6* here at 6am. 76,6* by 8am. 81.4* by Noon.

Long lasting heat is possible in late summer as witnessed by our longest heatwave ever, which began Aug. 23 and lasted 12 days in 1953. Avg. high about 96 degrees. Meanwhile August looks boring, with more sinking air over the Atlantic showing up now, than in earlier projections.