CIK62

South wind (10-15mph) prevented theoretical high from being reached while I was on the beach here, 1pm-4pm. A large 'weekday like crowd', for this post season weekend. I believe this same 'end of summer weekend' just two years ago, was 91*.

Next 8 days are averaging 72degs., which is about 8degs. AN now. Month to date is +0.1[69.8]. Should be +2.3[70.4] by the 30th. 66.9* here at 6am. 68.0* by 8am. 70.3* by 10am. 72.6* by Noon. EURO says we (Central Park) will average a high of 82* over the next 10 days, or +10 to +12. GFS too high to mention.

Next 8 days are still averaging 72degs., which is about 8degs. AN now. Month to date is -0.2[69.6]. Should be +2.1[70.3] by the 29th. We are still in the running to finish month with <1.0". Currently 0.82". Little predicted for remainder of month, as we remain in a halo area of dryness. 64.0* here at 6am. 63.5* at 7am. 70.8* by 11am. 72.6* at Noon (+4.1 from yesterday at this time)

Next 8 days are averaging 72degs., or about 7degs. AN. Month to date is -0.2[69.8]. Should be +1.9[70.4] by the 28th. 58.2* here at 6am. 57.9* at 7am. Just passed 60* with 60.2* at 9am. 65.6* by 11am. 68.5* at Noon. Just passed 70* with 70.1* at 1pm. 72.6* at 2pm. 75.5* at 3pm. Lucky 7's at 4pm---77.7*. Just shy of 80* at 5pm, but hit 80.0* at 5:15pm.

Nov. 18 will do it.

Next 8 days are averaging 69degs., or about 4degs. AN. Month to date is +0.1[70.3]. Should be about +1.3[69.9] by the 27th. 55.8* here at 6am. 55.0* at 7am. 56.4* at 8am. 66.0* by 3pm. Latest GFS looks 20 degrees cooler for the first 5 days of Oct. than prior run.

The next 8 days are averaging 70degs., or about 4degs. AN. Used 70/57 for today. Month to date is +0.3[70.7]. Should be about +1.3[70.6] by the 25th. 63.6* here at 6am. 69.0* by 2pm, with sun in and out behind cumulus clouds. Next 15 days look "El Boro", like watching grass grow---but it won't---not with just 0.10" rain. Taken literally, we would finish under 1.0" for the month (last time is Mar. 2012?)

The next 8 days are averaging 71degs., or about 5degs. AN. Month to date is +0.3[70.8]. Should be about +1.9[70.9] by the 25th. No rain for next two weeks. From hurricane rains to nothing. Models have a long way to go. 64.2* here at 6am.

Next 8 days are averaging 69degs., or about 3degs. AN. Month to date is just Normal here at mid-month or 0.0[70.7]. Should be +1.0[70.2] by the 24th. 71.5* here at 6am.

If anyone is still looking at Humberto getting near us as was earlier indicated (before any low level center was determined and that L/L became part of the data set), the CMC still makes a funny move west and northwest on Day 5. The NAVGEM dilly dallies the storm too---near Hatteras.

Next 8 days are averaging 71degs., or about 4degs. AN. Month to date is -0.5[70.4]. Should be about +1.3[70.5] by the 23rd. 70.7* here at 6am.

Next 8 days are averaging 70.5degs., or about 3.5degs AN. Month to date is -0.4[70.6]. Should be about +1.1[70.5] by the 22nd. 67.6* here at 6am.

Next 8 days averaging 69degs., or about 2degs. AN. Month to date is -0.1[71.1]. Should be +0.8[70.4] by the 21st. 61.5* here at 6am.

Next 8 days are averaging 70degs., or about 2degs. AN (used 62 for low T today) Month to date is -0.2[71.1]. Should be near +1.0[70.7] by the 20th. 75.9 * here at 6am, but going nowhere today but down apparently! 77.0* at 7am. 77.3* at 8am. 80.7* by 11am. 82.4* by Noon.

Fantastic post season beach day in CI today. A SW light wind saved it from being called hot, because the more slanted sun never quit. Getting back to the Hurricane Window some mets keep mentioning, it was this run of the 0Z GFS from Sept. 09 that has been the scariest so far, at 336hrs: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&amp;region=us&amp;pkg=mslp_pcpn&amp;runtime=2019090900&amp;fh=336 Current run is a paltry version of this: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&amp;region=us&amp;pkg=mslp_pcpn&amp;runtime=2019091112&amp;fh=276 Let's have some fun with this before it gets serious around here. Post the scariest runs you've found!

Next 8 days are averaging 72degs, or about 5degs. AN. Month to date is -1.0[70.4]. Should be about +2.0[71.1] by the 19th. 69.0* here at 6am.

Next 8 days are averaging 74degs., or about 6degs. AN. Month to date is -1.3[70.3]. Should be +2.1[72.0] by the 18th. 70.2* here at 6am.

Some mets are signalling that around 9/22 another Hurricane Sandy may strike. Deep trough in mid-west at that time may pull any storm available toward the EC. It was the anomalous trough in 2012 that sucked Sandy toward us and then made it cold enough to snow in the N'oreaster a week later.

Next 8 days averaging 73degs., or about 4degs. AN. Month to date is -1.6[70.2]. Should be +1.2[71.8] by the 17th. 67.2* here at 6am.

Next 8 days are averaging 73degs., or about 4degs. AN. Month to date is -1.6[70.2]. Should be about +1.3[71.5] by mid-month. 06Z GFS says double your pleasure with two hurricanes in 5 days. Lol. 65.4* at 6am. 66.0* at 7am.

Next 8 days are averaging 73degs., or about 4 degs AN. 58.4* here at 6am. Dorian is just about to miss the BM by 2-Degrees of Lat., or 110miles, as it zips past 40N 68W at 7:30am.

The Raggetty Ann center of Dorian is currently (2PM) just about 330 miles to our south. CI getting heavy showery rains for past 30 mins., from an out front spiral band.

Yet another day on which the next 8 days average is holding at 70degs., maybe 1deg. AN. 66.2* here at 6am.

Next 8 days are still averaging 70degs., or near Normal. 67* here at 6am.

Just missed to my north, here in CI. Some T/L/Light rain. 3:45pm-4:20pm.