CIK62

The next 8 days are averaging 58degs., or just Normal. Month to date is +3.6[64.5]. Should be about +1.6[61.0] near mid-month. 59.9* here at 6am. EURO is 2" thru Sun., and the GFS is 1". GFS does have 3" falling on the 22nd. alone though. Lol. JB warning of hurricane gusts and 5" on central LI on Thurs/Fri. We are a little safer with 50mph gusts and less rain. LI Buoy Swells: Pyramid Building in the 21st. Century. Lol.

CFSv2 actually shows either (weekly averages) Normal 500mb Heights or BN Heights all the way into Jan., for us. This is a rarity, wonder what it sees? Which analog periods is it using --- of course we do not know. Any ideas and opinions?

Next 8 days are averaging 59degs., or about 1deg. AN. 68.7* here at 6am. 73.4* by 11am, with broken cloud cover. 74.4* at Noon. 75.5* by 1pm. . Apparently no more than 2" will fall by next Sunday AM, probably less, as storm stalls at sea on most models/runs, but does not combine with land precipitation directly. Most rain will fall Wed.? Some minor coastal flooding will take place later in the week, eg. Perth Amboy +3'.

Next 8 are averaging 60degs., or about 1deg. AN. 62.9* here at 6am. GFS/EURO more in line now on Total P at about 2",(Tues-Sat) which is down by a factor of 2 for the EURO. The next action-packed thriller after this week's show/no-show, should be from Oct. 19-23.

Next 8 days are averaging 61degs., or about 2degs. AN. 47.1* here at 7am. 46.9* near 7:30pm. was the low. 49.3* by 9am. Back to 50.0* by 9:30am. 51.2* by 10am. 55.0* by Noon. Both the GFS/EURO are 75---80 on Monday but, GFS is 1.5" from Tues-Fri and EURO is 3.5". EURO hooks up with ocean feature on Thurs. PM?

The EURO Control looks super cold late October. and first half of November. 500mb Heights go 300m BN at times. When it catches on to the SSW which has been taking place all summer, blocking will set in. At any rate, you can throw out the EURO according to JB. lol

Next 8 days are averaging 63degs., or about 3degs+ AN. Just one below normal day till maybe the weekend two weeks hence. 60.0* at 6am.

My prediction for the winter is a 'COLD, STORMY ECONOMY'. A Negative Spending Index, A Positive Inflation Index, Low Confidence Voter/Consumer Influx from middle America, Tweeting in Phase 9!, and a Chief Meteorologist with an Omega Block in his head. LOL!

Next 8 days are averaging 61degs., or about 1deg. AN. (used 70/54 for today). I reached about 93 yesterday, after I got back from beach. My surrogate official station is JFK, where it was 95, so 93 might have been low. 60.4* at 6am. 59.7* by 8am. 58.2* by 11am.

Now that I am back home, trying to get the sand out of my mouth (the Dust Devils went nuts,-starting at 3pm.)----I can tell you my thermometer is at 91.7*! At this very time (3:50pm) of the day, relatively speaking, I had 99.3* for 15 mins. on July 21.

Next 8 days are averaging 62degs., or about 2degs. AN. EURO is 90, the GFS is 91 for today. I have also seen 83(GFSx), 86 on the SREF Plumes. GFS LAMP is cloud covered all day and just 82. Luckaly we are not deciding between 32/33-Snow/Rain for today. 79.0* at Noon(+8 from yesterday, when I finished near 81*. Made 80.0* by 12:20pm-going to go to beach. 70.7* here at 6am. 71.7* by 9am. 73.0* at 10am. 76.4* at 11am.

The first 8 days of October are averaging 65degs., or about 4 or 5degs. AN. EURO, GFS shaking hands now on the first 3 days of October: Both> 82, 88, 73. EURO lower for this weekend: 58, 68 vs. 64, 65. 64.2* here at 6am. 67.5* by 10am. 69.5* at 11am. 71.0* at Noon. 78.0* by 4pm. 79.1* at 4:30pm.(just saw a 95* output from Cincinnati) 80.4* at 5pm. For anyone interested, this is CFSv2 500mb predictions currently for weeks centered on date shown": Oct. 01 AN+, Oct. 08 N, Oct. 15 N, Oct. 22 BN, Oct. 29 AN, Nov. 05 N.

September ended at +2.4[70.4]. Rainfall was just 0.95", maybe least since October 2013.

Last day of September has a mean of 64degs., or 3degs. AN. Month to date is +2.4[70.5]. September should end at +2.3[70.3]. The first week of October is averaging 65degs., or about 4degs. AN. First 3 days of October: EURO: 77, 91, 78. GFS: 78, 88, 78. Does not look that cold after that anymore. "As the Earth Burns" serial extended? Remember the famous Tag-Team of "HOTn'HOTTER"---in town to stay?

The last 2 days of September are averaging 69degs. or 6degs. AN. Month to date is +2.1[70.5]. September should end near +2.4[70.4]. First 3 days of Oct.: EURO. 80, 92, 79. GFS 78, 90, 84 Deviations AN vary from +5 to +20 at locations relatively near each other, so who knows what the ultimate highs will be---like any other day. 72.5* here at 6am. 74.0* by 11am. 80.0* by around 3:30pm.

The last 3 days of September are averaging 70degs., or 7degs. AN. Month to date is +1.8[70.4]. September should end near +2.4[70.4]. The first 3 days of Oct: GFS. 80 90 83. EURO. 78 92 82. Their ensembles are both much lower. 65.5* here at 6am. 69.0* by 10am.

NAEFS is giving Oct. 2 about a 25% chance of exceeding the low 80's that day. It does look mostly sunny otherwise, so a final beach day is possible.

The last 4 days of September are averaging 69degs. or about 6degs. AN. Month to date is +1.8[70.5]. September should end near +2.3[70.3]. 63.1* here at 6am. 66.5* by 10am. 68.0* by Noon. Still 68.0* at 1pm-not a late beach day here despite sun. 70.0* at 2pm. 70.7* at 3pm. Any 90* reading here at the opening of Oct., appears to have faded. EURO with a lone 91* on the 2nd, surrounded by upper 70's. GFS never really showed 90's, even with its bias---now is 89*, 88*, for the 2nd, 3rd. At any rate, the GFS is BN starting the 4th., with 850mb T's appropriate for the start of Nov., it would appear.

The last 5 days of September are averaging 70degs., or about 7degs. AN. Month to date is +1.5[70.4]. September should end near +2.4[70.4]. EURO is back to the 90's, at 93, 94 versus 90, 86 on the GFS for the 2nd, 3rd. 64.5* here at 6am. 68.5* by 9am. A decent 150m drop in the THK near the 3rd forward. OP is probably too much on the height decreases.

The last 6 days of September are averaging 70degs., or about 6degs. AN. Month to date is +1.9[70.4]. September should end near +2.3[70.3]. Maybe the GFS has been over corrected by the programmers to the low side because it is 20 degrees below the EURO now for the 2nd. and 3rd. on average. Also it has a problem reaching 60degs. starting Oct. 05. (92 versus 79) and (92 versus 66). A problem with placement of the players. 62.6* here at 6am. 65.3* by 9am. 65.8* at 10am. 75.5* by 3pm.

The EURO is still beating the GFS on the NYC highs in early Oct. It has switched the 94* back to Oct. 02. That is 3 straight runs with a 94* showing. Will the EURO be the next model to put on its underwear backwards? Which model can we rely upon anyway? Lol

Global Politics and the Weather: https://www.newsmax.com/finance/peterorszag/local-weather-forecasts-global/2019/07/31/id/926702/

Last 7 days of September are averaging 72degs., or about 8 degs. AN. Month to date is +1.2[70.5]. September should end near +2.7[70.7].

The EURO is even more 'wackerdo' than the GFS, with a 94* on Oct. 02! At any rate summer like weather will end by Oct. 05.

Next 8 days are averaging just 70degs. or about 6degs. AN. Month to date is +0.6[70.1]. September should end near +2.0[70.0]. 70.5* here at 6am. 71.0* by 8am. 77.0* by Noon. Really no BN day, except by accident, till Oct. 05.