CIK62

F L A S H F L A S H F L A S H F L A S H FLASH FLASH If not mentioned elsewhere, KWO-35 162.55Mhz. is back on the air. The hiatus was a typical governmental one of 23 months. Transmitter Details Just got this- 6:52pm from site-, so maybe they are only testing. Call Sign Power Frequency Status KWO35 1000 W 162.550 MHz OUT OF SERVICE

EURO CONTROL looking super cold starting Nov. 12 and continuing to end of November. Prior to the 12th., it is a swing your partner affair, with girls and boys always changing places. A Thanksgiving Day snowstorm looks doable, as ridging is peaking over Montana and a -270m trough is over us. Meanwhile back at ranch, the remainder of October is averaging 58degs.

The next 8 days are averaging 57degs., or about 5degs. AN. Month to date is +1.9[60.0]. October should end near +2.4[59.3]. 53.6* here at 6am. 60.0* by 12;30PM. 63.1* by 3pm.

Next 8 days averaging 59degs., or about 6degs. AN. Just the 30th. is BN. It will be joined by the 31st. tomorrow. Month to date is +1.8[60.1]. Should be near +2.9[59.8] by the 31st. GFS/GEFS start differing on the 2mT's beginning Nov. 04. 59.5* here at 6am. 63.6* by 2pm. 65.1* by 3pm. 66+* high about 3:30pm. ***I agree that annual updates to the 30 Year Normal defeats its purpose somewhat, but the atmosphere has done a good job there already! Perhaps two 30YNs are in order here---- the original method IN MEMORIAM only. Lol.

Well, I think it is the mechanics of the 30-Year Normal being kept out of date purposely, which forces almost any analog long range output to indicate AN. We are chasing a moving target. The current 30 Year Normal will be around for another two years. It has a mid point of 1996, which will be 25 years ago when changed. We can not alter the T's being predicted---just where they sit against the normal, a real normal. The normal should be updated annually for the most recent 30 years. Using the last four months of the year for the last 11 years, and making this Nov/Dec AN, it looks like the score is 32AN 12BN. In 2014-15 NYC had 20 straight AN months Tampa Fl. seems to be on an 18 month AN streak right now. We need a normals that gets us closer to 50%/50%. The average age of the warmest 12 months ever (one for each month of the year) is 30 years, the 12 coldest is 120 years, in NYC. Personally I feel adding about 1 degree F to each monthly normal(variable by the month) would get us to a split of 180/180 over the 30 year span. In other words, any month that is >+1 now, really is above the normal long term residents around here used to experience.

The next 8 days are still averaging 57degs. or about 4degs.+ AN Month to date is +1.7[60.1]. Should be +2.4[59.3] by the 30th. 58.4* here at 6am. 63.5* by 1pm. EURO Control Member is 'Cold' for Weeks 4,5,6-----mixed Weeks 1,2,3. I make out November from this, as BN. As we go into Dec., it may be going back the other way. We'll see.

DT scores some recent CFS Winter Outlooks during the first minutes of his latest video. He too feels (paranoid like me?)the outputs never show BN because the government is promoting Global Warming and hopes you never actually do any verification------that you just see the Outlooks-----but our members know better! Of course he covers the next week and some 'beyonds' via Siberian Snow Cover (current and about to happen) and projected TeleConnections.

Next 8 days are still averaging 57degs., or about 4degs. AN. Month to date is +1.7[60.2]. Should be +2.2[59.5] by the 29th. 52.5* here at 6am. 61.5* by Noon. 63.0* by 1pm. 66.3* by 2:30pm. Looks like I peaked at 67.4* at 3:15pm.

Next 8 days averaging 57degs. again or about 4degs. AN. (used 52/58 for today) Month to date is +1.7(60.5). Should be near +2.7(59.4) by the 28th. 54.1* here at 6am.

(accidentally saved under wrong topic earlier today) The next 8 days are averaging 57degs., or about 3degs. AN. Month to date is +2.1[61.0]. Should be +2.4[59.7] by the 27th. 46.5* here at 6am. 60.0* by 3pm Made it to 61+ before 4pm. Next 7 days now look to be +5, up from +3 this AM.

Next 8 days are averaging 57 degs., or about 3degs. AN. Month to date is +2.4[61.5]. Should be near +2.6[60.3]. by the 26th. 51.4* here at 6am.

Latest CFSv2 shows no BN T's anywhere, but 'No Skill' in the eastern third of the country for Nov: Bet the 'No Skill came in handy last Nov. with the switch from +6 by Nov. 08, to -3.3 at month's end.

Next 8 days averaging 57degs., or about 2degs. AN. Month to date is +2.7[61.9]. Should be +2.6[60.3] by the 25th. 51.6* here at 6am. Buoy 44065 peaked at 61mph gusts near 11pm last night.

Next 8 days are back to averaging 59degs., or about 4degs. AN Month to date is +2.7[62.1]. Should be +3.0[61.0] by the 24th. 60.2* here at 6am.

Well, none of the bouys which would be affected by the system, are showing over 15' seas. I think they are based on the GFS. Real reason is the winds will be working on the water's surface for a short time only--- not like an approaching TC. Also note the GFS is showing the month ending in the 30's to 40's exclusively (27th-31st.)-----if you are worried about freezes and frosts around here.

Next 8 days are averaging 60degs., or about 5degs. AN. Month to date is +2.9[62.5]. Should be about +3.5[61.6] by the 23rd. 55.2* here at 6am.

November will surprise, I am betting---on the BN side. CFSv2 is....... Week 1 N Week 2 AN Week 3 BN Week 4 BN Remember last November was +6 after Week 1, and ended as the star of the winter (by anomaly) at -3.3 with a 6.4" snowstorm. Then KAOS sent in their best agents and neutralized November with a 'mirror image' December. Lol. If Nov, Dec are both AN, it would make the last 11 years worth of Septembers, Octobers, Novembers, Decembers (44 months) about 32AN vs. 12BN .

The next 8 days are still averaging 59degs., or about 4degs. AN. Month to date is +2.5[62.3]. Should be near +3.1[61.1] by the 22nd. 60.0* here at 6am. GFS still going from near 80* to near 40* the 22nd. to the 27th.

The next 8 days are averaging 59degs., or about 3degs.+ AN. Month to date is +2.5[62.5]. Should be near +2.8[61.1] by the 21st. 55.7* here at 6am. Quickly check out the nearly full moon due west a few degrees above horizon! 6:25am. Typical 'Moon Illusion',---when near the horizon it looks enormous sometimes.

Well the T could not wait for 'any stinking ridges' by me. Touched 70* at 4:15pm. The last days of October may still fly in the face of rest of month with a BN finale.

Next 8 days are averaging 59degs., or about 3degs AN. Month to date is +2.5[62.6]. Should be near +2.7[61.0] by the 20th. 55.8* here at 6am. 69.4* by 4pm, all sun, lite breeze. The GFS does go from 80* to 40*, bet. the 22nd-25th. 88* is record(22nd.) in a month that saw the earliest Trace of Snow ever, back on the 10th., 1979!

Next 8 days are averaging 58degs., or about 2degs.+ AN. Month to date is +2.6[62.9]. Should be near +2.4[60.7] by the 18th. 56.1* here at 6am. 60.5* by 11am. Yesterday I got to 72*, rounded off. Warm wind and sun all day. GEFS, GEPS look similar temperature wise on the next 15 days, with the BN air never really reaching the EC fully. The GEPS is much warmer late in period than the GEFS.

On April 16-17 2003, didn't NYC drop from 88 to 37 in 15 hours or something like that.? Was 88 at 4pm and 44, 24hrs. later.

Next 8 days are averaging 59degs., or about 2degs. AN. (used 60/50 for today) Month to date is +2.6[63.0]. Should be near +2.3[61.1] by the 17th. 54.3* here at 6am. 57.2 by 9am, with more sun than clouds. 71.4* by 4pm! -stayed sunny and breezy all day.

Next 8 days averaging 58degs., or maybe 1deg. AN. Month to date is +3.4[64.0]. Should be near +1.9[61.0] by the 16th. 59.1* here at 6am. Both the EURO/GFS are under 0.5" through Sunday.