Upstate Tiger

78 and 83 were pretty memorable in the upstate of SC

71 forecast here for Super Bowl Sunday. Maybe we'll finally get some decent weather for our annual Super Bowl Sunday backwards par 3 tournament. May have to break out shorts and sunscreen.

LOL...The Rio Grande, Corpas Christi, and South Padre Island are the places to be! Plenty of time for this to trend north and east

In all seriousness I think we will start seeing fantasy storms showing up over the next several days for this period.

There's been some talk about the correlation and timing of cold in the SE to winter storms. Just for fun, I went back and looked at some memorable winter storms to see what temps looked like in the days leading up to these storms. This is for the Greenville, SC area. The far right column is new snow depth. With the exception of 1982, the cold air arrives within 24 hours of the onset of the storm. February 2014 January 2011 February 2004 January 1996 March 1993 January 1988 January 1987 January 1982 March 1980 February 1979

Brick. Have you tried to play golf in March the last few years? I swear I saw that mammoth from Ice Age walking across the 6th fairway last year. Good to hear from you BTW.

Agree. Orientation of the cold in February is much more conducive to winter weather on this side of the apps. Of course it changes every 24 hours which is probably a good sign.

Awesome pics guys!! Keep sharing. And give us some temp updates too.

Yeah, I hear you. If you look at the long range link I sent today, and I'm not the expert others are, it would seem to me maybe the 5th, which is start of week 2, would be the earliest for a true pattern change. However, winter is a fast flow so things can change fast.

Looking at the long range out 14 days to first week of Feb., the cold in Canada looks better today and looked even better overnight. NAO looks to stay positive but so does PNA. MJO looks to maybe get through 6 and some plots have it going into 7. Still feel like we get our chance in February. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml

Welp. This season started with such hope. Maybe ranking among the best of all time. 79-80 and even 95-96 were mentioned when talking about this year. However, we’re headed into late January and we suck again having lost 4/5. Oh and this winter sucks too. Hoping for that February turnaround and great March for both.

Looking at the longrange on the 12Z GFS today is not good for us snow lovers in the SE. Any cold intrusions after this weekend look sparse going into the first week of February. Remains to be seen if the cold returns as moldeled earlier. NAO looks to head positive, PNA stays positive (good), but MJO is headed to 6 before maybe COD. Not the trends we want.

Yep. It stinks. Snow drought is probably an appropriate term. The 1950s had a similar snow drought in the SE. Still think Feb holds some opportunities

I know it's frustrating right now and it's been a frustrating couple of years for snow lovers but wall to wall cold from December to March just does not happen here. The coldest month on record at GSP is Janaury 1977 and there were days in the 50's and even a 55 on Janaury 27. The coldest February on record at GSP is February 1980. We had 8" of snow that month with 3 events. We also had 4 days in the 70's including a 76 a few days before March 1, 1980. Anyone around the Carolinas then remembers what happened March 1-2, 1980.

During the moderation the last 2 weeks of the month (hopefully get some golf in), Canada will be resupplying with cold air. I actually liked the orientation of the high pressure better on the 0Z for the first week of February. The 06Z was further west. Nevertheless, cold should be poised to move south and east.

Yep. The 18z is no bueno for Monday and Tuesday.

I guess I need to go back and look at the 12Z GFS again because I don't get the gnashing of teeth . But I'm old so I may have been looking a tic tok video.

Correct! That's the place to be in this set up.

GSP AFD... Extended models show the development of a long wave structure with a deep upper trough over the eastern CONUS with numerous chances for shortwave passages through Wednesday. This pattern also gives generally lower thickness levels and increased chances for snow over the GSP area through Wednesday. Moisture is still limited. Still the EC model has some snow over most of the CWA on Tuesday. The GFS model, however, restricts frozen precip to the higher elevations. Overall, chances for winter conditions increase into mid next week, though no major event is current on the horizon. Yeah but I want a major event!!!!

Weather app now saying 22 MPH sustained with 50 MPH wind gust at my home in Cherryville. Just looking at doorbell cam it is hard to validate. If valid, there will be major power outages. Very windy at the hopital here in Gastonia.

Weather app says 21 mph sustained and 49 mph gust at my home in Cherryville. Got to say though that my doorbell camera doesn’t look like it’s blowing that hard. Going to be a wild day. Stay safe.

GSP's morning AFD on next week'sa potential event. The forecaster put is about as good as you could... An interesting set up is showing up in guidance by D7, but still a lot more questions than answers this far out before going into the nitty gritty details as differences between model guidance suggests they don`t know what the heck is going to happen with the sensible weather beyond this upcoming weekend. Temperatures are expected to begin the period at or slightly above normal on Friday before below-normal values settle in through the rest of the medium range following Friday`s system.

Well there will be a big storm in the south it looks line. Right now Tenn forum should be happy. We’ll see if that holds over the next several days. My guess is it moves back and forth until Friday or Saturday.

In January of 1977, I believe it was 16th and 17th, we had a very similar set up as this. Cold on the front end allowed for a little frozen in the higher elevations. Then heavy rain, high wind warning, and even a tornado watch. When I went to bed that evening, the temp at GSP was 66. Winds howled all night with some stations reporting 80 MPH gusts. When I got up, we had a dusting of snow blowing around and temps in the 20's. About 8:30 AM a snow squal came through with absolute whiteout conditions. Temp dropped to 19 degrees and stayed there all day. We had occassional snow flurries in the upstate all day and the winds were gusting to 50 MPH. Wonder if any of you other boomers like me remember that one?

Yeah. This period is worth watching. We’ve got cold coming and an active jet stream. I really don’t want to be sitting in the jackpot zone outside 7 days. We all know how that works out. I also think the warmup will be muted and short lived.