Upstate Tiger

Interesting map. Would love to see the same map for 70-79 and 80-89.

Yep. That PNA is a dagger for our part of the country. Like last Saturday night when the Tigers were down 16 to nothing, I am not quite ready to throw in the towel but we need a momentum changer before halftime. Maybe the winter referee is getting ready to call a targeting penalty or an overturned call from the booth would help too!

Made the mistake of wearing a long sleeve shirt on the golf course today. Also forgot my sunscreen. Don’t know what I was thinking

Right on que, winter officially arrives along with a positive NAO. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml

Yep. January of 1977. Miami received a trace. On a another note: Before we get carried away with the LRF and the bad indices over the last few days......just remember, when I started the Long Range 2019 thread a year ago, the LRF and indices showed a wintry setup for January. The opposite came to fruition. Maybe the opposite will happen again. Hope springs eternal. Of course, AN forecasts always seem to verify LOL

Too bad this weekends system isn’t 24 hours faster with some NS interaction. Pretty cold the last couple of days here. 21 degrees in Cherryville this morning.

First, let me apologize to every person living in the southeast who has wanted to see snow over the last 12 months. It seemed at this time last year there was so much promise of a good snowy winter. Then I started the 2019 thread and it all turned into a bag of monkey crap. However, we now have the opportunity to correct this egregious error. If anyone has any hope of seeing any wintry weather, for the love of Pete, please start a new long term thread!!! For my part, I promise to NEVER start another thread. Oh, I will lurk and post the occasional movie reference or weather ob from time to time, but nothing more. Remember, old posters never die, we just simply fade away.

Well this forecaster at the CPC certainly is a . We shall see I guess. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php "For those celebrating the Christmas holiday, travel conditions should be favorable, with the likelihood of a major winter storm looking minimal for most of the central and eastern U.S and the influx of moisture starting to wane in the west. Those dreaming of a white Christmas are likely to be sorely disappointed; temperatures over the eastern two-thirds of the contiguous U.S. are forecast to be anomalously warm."

Hey look I am in the 44" to 48" range or is that a .01 near the 37? Not bad for an Apps Runner. Hope that's a high ratio and not a 6:1 or we are in trouble lol.

I was writing this weekend’s storm off as a non event but now that the blue turd has appeared I am heading out back to test my generator.

Headed to Gatlinburg Sunday through Tuesday. May get to see some NW snow accumulation. From KGSP AFD: At first blush, this one appears to have a lot going for it Sunday night in the operational model runs. Deep moisture, mid-level forcing, sufficiently low mid-level thickness, favorable thermal profiles for snow, and a Great Lakes connection all point to the potential for our first real NW Flow snow event of the season Sunday night and Monday.

Could be headed for our second below average November. The November average at KGSP is 52.4 degress F. November 2018 had an average of 47.8 degrees. So far in 2019, we are averaging 47.7. BTW... the record November low at KGSP is 11 degrees set on consecutive days in 1950. The lowest monthly average was 43.2 in 1901. https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=gsp

As always great job! Well researched and supported forecast. Hope it comes to fruition as your data suggests.

What are we? A bunch of Johnny Come Late-lies??

Just saw live report from Denver. 610 EDT and it 12 degrees and snowing in Denver. Pretty impressive for late October. They will break record lows and record maximum next couple of days.

Not as good as Eyewalls. Camped at Black Mountain campground last night. Really good color near Mt Mitchell.

“Did I say nipply?”

As someone else, said "what a difference a couple of weeks makes." After this week's cool shot, looks some more cooler weather next week and around Halloween plus some rain opportunities too. Love seeing the "Below Average Temp. Forecast" for the SE. I'll take it after that brutal September!!! https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

Seeing some highs in the upper 20's this week in the northern Rockies and northern plains for the first time this fall. Hopefully the we see a flip in the troughing and the death of the SER soon.

We arrived yesterday for our first OBX trip and this had just occurred. Very very sad https://www.wbtv.com/2019/10/02/national-weather-service-official-drowns-while-swimming-outer-banks/

GRRRRRR!!!! After tomorrow, about all we could hope for over the next 10 days is a back door cold front or CAD. For Friday September 27 - Thursday October 03: Analysis of today's mean 00Z 500-hPa height field during Week-2 depicts much better agreement between the ECMWF and GEFS models compared to earlier this week. Both models suggest an amplification of the upper-level pattern, with anomalous positive heights centered over the northeastern Pacific Ocean, an expansion of anomalous negative heights over the western CONUS, and stronger anomalous positive heights over the central and eastern CONUS. Over parts of the Northeast and eastern Maritime Canada, some disagreement is evident in the model guidance, with the GEFS showing a stronger negative height field extending into the central Atlantic.

Starting to feel like fall of 2016. Hope we don't start seeing the wildfires like we had that year. Remember the all the smokey days?

Yeah that was a warm one. I remember some brutal JV football practices in August. Winter of 80/81 was one of my least favorite growing up in 70’s/80’s. From 76/77 thru 87/88 we had good winters with some good storms except one: 80/81. We had 1” of snow in January, a minor ice storm and sleet storm on April 1. That winter was a bad anomaly back then. Today that would be epic lol

What a suck fest this month is turning out to be. I would just settle for 80's! Good grief....as someone stated above, this pattern is bad for upcoming leaf season too. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

For those interested.....as expected Chris Justus named WYFF Chief Meteorologist to replace JC.