Upstate Tiger

The NAO moves toward positive by the end of the month before heading back negative after the 1st. The PNA moves toward positive at the end of the month and remains slightly positive after the 1st. The latest from the CPC now has the La Nina lasting until February but in a waning state. Forecasts earlier in the fall had La Nina ending after the first of the year. Based on all this, my guess is after a relaxation of the cold at the end of the month, we could see another bout of cold in the east by the end of the first week in January. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml

As I was out rounding in the hospital this morning, I noticed the clouds rolling in and temps in the 20's. AAAhhh, what could have been...

It’s difficult to understand how this storm can be this far north and west with the anomalous blocking in the east and ridging in the west. I will say the 18z GFS is a much more realistic solution than the ECMF IMO.

Yes, kept it back and consolidated.

Don't sleep on the little system for Tuesday night, no pun intended. Some places could see a dusting across the foothills and piedmont of NC & SC.

Very well could be right but everybody was saying the same thing last January leading up to that storm and the GFS lead the way.

Not sure either. Looked good to me

Man the Euro is bringing in the cold starting this weekend with another big dump Christmas weekend. If we can get just a little bit of blocking over the next 2 weeks we could see a nice winter storm in SE. Speaking of cold, does it ever feel any colder than when it is raining and 39 degrees like today?

CPC out this afternoon sticking with potential of a Miller A around Christmas. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

Agree also. I do not see anything in the Ops or Ens from overnight that should cause any cliff diving. We have seen far worse patterns this time of the year in recent years.

Glad to see the rain but what a crappy run of weather. Must be what it's like to live in London. Gloomy, damp, and cold. Hopefully we see some sun next week. This could make a person depressed!

CPC yesterday versus today https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

As mentioned above, the change from yesterday's forecast in the PNA is the difference. Yesterday's PNA forecast has it moving to positive between the 10-15th. Today it keeps it negative.

Good synopsis of the pattern in week two from the CPC. Basically agreeing with previous comments posted above: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

As other have posted the pattern looks really good around mid-month looking at the latest GFS. Also, NAO heading to really negative territory while the PNA moves toward positive.

Very, very sad news today from Charlotte. This happened not too far from our hospital. Jason seemed like a great guy. https://www.wbtv.com/2022/11/22/wbtv-mourning-loss-meteorologist-jason-myers-pilot-chip-tayag/

NAO looking to go negative first week of December. Hopefully PNA continues to trend in a positive direction. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml

Looks like flow is less amplified after next weekend but wow there is some really cold air building again in central and western Canada the last week of November. https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=area#

I keep looking for some hint of some cold coming south through the middle of the month but nothing showing up. There will be some record breaking cold out west next week, especially across the northern Rockies and northern Great Plans. Lower heights out west should relax after next week. NAO looks to stay positive through the middle of the month. After below normal November's for the last few years, maybe we get a below normal December and January instead!

At the end of the 12Z GFS, first week of November, looks like some good cold building in central and western Canada.

This combined with the data shared today on pre 1990 October freezes is pretty eye opening. Depending on perspective, one could assume a change is inevitable. I’m going to enjoy this awesome stretch of fall weather and hope for a good winter storm or 2.

Was thinking that remaining in the mid 50s all day in Cherryville probably breaks the September lowest maximum of all time or has to be near the top.

Never mind, found it. 963 at 1100 advisory.

Does anyone know where you can find the latest central pressure? I have looked on the NHC Ian site and the 1100 update as well as weather channel but can't find one since 0800.

My Wolfpack friends might want to pack the rain gear for Saturday night. Probably not a good tailgating game. Shame with Gameday in town and national TV for top 10 matchup. Looks really nasty.