Upstate Tiger

Your comments about the NAM should be bolded. Ignore the NAM from here on out at your own peril. I've been burned too many times trusting other models when the NAM is the king of warm nose forecasting.

I know this is salt in the wound to many but below is the US snow cover map as of 06 UTC 02/15/21. It shows 70.49% coverage. Will likely increase today as Mississippi and Tennessee fill in more. This is historical territory. Previous record is 70.9% on Jan 12, 2011. 1966 and 1978 also were in the 70% range.

I know it's been a frustrating weather week in the SE, especially when Dallas is expecting blizzard conditions Monday morning. There could be snow covering most of the U.S. next week except the SE and southern half of the West coast. However, another round of anomalous cold air builds in Canada the last week of the February and is poised to move south. I am not predicting another March 1980 storm but as crazy as this year has been, I wouldn't bet against anything at this point. Heck, I am not even confident with what falls from the skies next Wednesday and Thursday.

32 degrees this morning in Cherryville. Apparently we had some geographical upheaval overnight. Always wanted live in the mountains

Actually meant 960MB for the the 93 storm.

Depends... President's Day 1979 was a 996 MB low with a 1050 high over the Great Lakes; the March 1993 Superstorm was a 990MB bomb with wind gusts over 140 MPH.

For those who haven’t looked, GSP seems about as confident as everyone else http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off just went out and put a little gas in my generator that I bought during the December 2005 ice storm. Started right up with one gentle pull. Tuesday morning at 200AM when it’s freezing rain and 27 degrees, 10 mules won’t be able to start it!

Gone over to mostly snow in Cherryville and 36. Family in Easley SC said roads covered and snowing hard. Hope precip holds together up I 85 and we get those kind of rates here.

Sorry! My fault. I made a tee time for Sunday after church when I saw sunny and 54 on yesterday's forecast.

Down to 32 here in Cherryville this evening. Haven’t looked back at data but anecdotally seems we’ve had lots of mornings below freezing this winter. Maybe it’s my old bones, but it sure seems like a lot of cold days, especially on the golf course since November. Little surprising for a LaNina winter.

42% U.S. snow coverage this morning. Little surprised it isn't higher, especially across the northern Rockies and high plains. However, good coverage in the east should aid in arctic air transport next week.

Interesting you mention 79. Late yesterday afternoon the sky had almost completely clouded over except a little outline of the sun. The first time I saw a similar sky was the Saturday afternoon before the great Presidents Day storm of 79. Of course back on that Saturday, there was a stiff northerly breeze and temp was in the upper 20s. Friday the day before it had been 68 and sunny. Sunday was snowy and windy with temps in the mid teens. Wound up with 14” IMBY. I remember listening on the old weather radio for the hourly updates where they would give conditions around the Carolinas and Ga and it was snowing everywhere but Charleston and Savannah. Myrtle Beach reported heavy snow and 18 degrees. One of my favorites!! Multiple events that winter.

Yes. Grill cover on back deck covered. Down to 37. However looks like back end of band coming through Cleveland County unless it redevelops. Still saw more flakes Thani thought I would.

Snowing pretty hard in Cherryville. 39/21

Yep Grit. You can see the SE ridge trying to flex its muscle. Hopefully it remains at bay and helps steer a SW into the southeast.

Will be quite interested to see what GSP says in the long term AFD this afternoon.

Looking at 12 UTC GFS, still like the period of 10th - 12th. Maybe the coldest air of the winter across the upper Midwest just prior to this time frame with some 20 below readings. Looks to spill south and eastward with a possible low development across deep south. Of course this morning's 06 UTC showed a major winter storm for Brownsville and northern Mexico during this time. If Monterey, Mexico and Madrid, Spain (18" on Jan 9) wind up with more snow than me this winter, I'll be pissed

Well the GFS 12UTC doesn't offer much winter wise in the next 2 weeks. Typical La Nina with midwestern storm track and demarcation line. However, the second week of February, the cold really builds in central Canada. Looks to be poised to dump further east this time instead of west. Just need MJO and EPO to come in line. It's a little premature to throw in the towel on the entire winter. However, if it is not going to snow, would like to play golf one weekend without temps in the upper 40's with stiff breeze. Seems that's been the case since November. https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=area#

Trail ride was cancelled so we decided to take a trail walk. Elk Knob outside Boone. 23 degrees and snowing at good rate.

Good comments. We all need to understand that model watching/commenting is not meteorology. Meteorology is understanding atmospheric science and having the ability to forecast the weather based on that understanding of science. Meteorology is best left to the Mets. Fortunately, we also have some longterm experienced posters such as yourself that offer great analysis. That’s why I enjoy the board. Therefore, I have no issues with someone posting/commenting on models/maps as long as they offer us a little informed context. On the other hand, just posting comments such as “12z is a dumpster fire” or “the Euro is a boom” bring little to the forum. Now off my soapbox....back to our regularly scheduled programming.

Well 12 GFS isn't great but not a dumpster fire either. Will see some real cold this weekend and mountains likely to see some measurable snow. I am heading for a 2.5 hour trail ride at Blowing Rock Saturday. Hope to ride in a little snow. Monday - Wednesday next week will see a southern storm. Looks mostly liquid but things can change. Guess best news is artic cold builds back in Canada W/O 01/18 - 01/27. Too soon to tell where it dumps but just having the cold in Canada is a positive. Remember, it's not over until we say it's over!.....or at least until Burns says its over. https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=area#

Can someone tell me where to go to whine about the 2021whining thread? TIA!

Hardest snowfall rates we’ve seen all day in CHERRYVILLE. 34 degrees

Yep. We moved up here 4 years ago from SC. When I took the job in Gastonia, one of my staff said “y’all should look for a house in Churval.” My wife looked at him and said “where in the world is churval?”

39/28 in CHERRYVILLE.