Upstate Tiger

GSP still has wintery weather for the area Friday into Friday night. As of 215 pm EST Tuesday: The pattern will get active once again through the short-term period as a series of northern stream waves dive southeast through the Great Lakes region Wednesday night into Thursday and amplify a positively tilted trough from the Upper Midwest to the central Plains. The trough will help to drive a moist cold front into the southern Appalachians Wednesday night, which will slip southeast of the area through Thursday. Anticipate mainly liquid ptypes with the fropa, except at the higher peaks and increasingly along the Tennessee border in brief, post fropa northwest flow. Since the highest QPF over the western mountains should be one-half inch or less, this should not be sufficient for hydro issues to develop, even with some mountain snow melt. It has become questionable how much of a lull will develop between the cold fropa and redeveloping upglide over the stalling boundary. A consensus is building that a sharpening upper jetlet may develop along the southern Appalachians Thursday night through Friday. The amplifying upstream trough will be potent, but now appears less likely to cut off west of the Appalachians and more likely to get picked up by the northern stream. The main uncertainty during the Thursday night to Friday period is how vigorous any surface waves become along the stalled boundary draped to our southeast. The ECM has stronger development and pulls more moisture, and thereby QPF, over the region Friday, while the GFS has a more muted response. The ECMWF has trended slightly toward the GFS, but the GEFS ensembles have plenty of snowy members still. Will use an ensemble approach to profiles and keep mainly snow across the region, but with a snow, sleet, and freezing rain mention for the southeast third. This will be introduced into the HWO. Temps will be shaded below guidance as cold air damming develops Friday from 1040 mb high pressure over New England. The wintry precipitation will continue into the early extended period.

Yep, Burrel that's a great summation. Seems we've seen energy get left in the SW often over the last decade. Euro will be very telling today.

Cherryville mostly sleet and has dropped to 23 with 10 degree wind chill.

24 degrees here in Cherryville with sleet mixing in with snow. Several inches on the ground. Hearing pingers bounce of windows.

41/27 in Cherryville here in the western Piedmont. DP has continued to drop all morning on a stiff NE wind.

From GSP AFD "In classic Carolina winter storm fashion, cold air will be reinforced, if not enhanced Sunday morning by developing classical (or at least strong hybrid) cold air damming, as 1030-ish mb surface high pressure moves into New England beneath confluent upper flow." I know some are disappointed but for the older ones on the board, this is a classic SE winter storm that we experienced so often in the 60's, 70's, and 80's. Unless you were in the mountain, you got a few inches of snow, followed by sleet, and then freezing rain. You wake up the next day to a winter wonderland with the pines all encrusted in snow and ice.

Looks like an arctic outbreak after next weekend's storm on the 20th/21st. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

Thanks for posting Hky. Been some talk of a March 1980 analog. Saturday March 1, 1980, the upstate had a raging sleet storm all day with temps in the 20's while NC got hammered with snow. The upstate did pick up 4" of snow that Saturday night on the back side that made for good sledding.

One thing is for sure, the GFS has been pretty consistent with the monster storm around the 23rd and a really cold outbreak to follow. It’s been showing this for several days with little deviation.

If this happens, they will be wearing 2 pairs of pajamas in the Cherryville Walmart...

Be patient low elevation peeps. There should be some opportunities over the next 2-4 weeks.

Looks like winter pulled a UCLA in December and decided not to show up.

Looking at the models for the next 2 weeks, Jan. 2 thru Jan. 6 is about the only period I see a slight chance for something frozen in the SE. During that period, there is cold air in the Midwest, the NAO remains negative, and the PNA relaxes a bit. I know...I am grasping at straws LOL.

The super cold air in central and western Canada looks to be on the move south after New Years. How far south and east it goes is the question. At least we have cold air on this side of the hemisphere. Any buckle in the jet stream will open the flood gates. https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=area#

I caught a bit of the news tonight and it’s heartbreaking to see what our neighbors in Kentucky and the other states are going through. Kinda hard to root for a pattern change that would bring more misery to those poor people. For once, I’d be happy to see above normal temps and no precipitation.

NAO forecasts continue to show negative trends after next weekend while the PNA shows positive trends during the same time. May just be a temporary trend or signs of a real pattern change. At this point, it's about the only thing SE winter weather lovers can hope for... https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml

Yes. If we could just get the PNA to move to neutral, I think we could see some opportunities in the south. There are some subtle signs that the PNA is moving toward neutral after next week. Will it get there? Who knows?

Or Seattle or San Diego.

Forecast to be below freezing each morning for the next 10 days IMBY. That will get rid of what bugs remain. Unfortunately, it looks dry. Very Nina like...

Looks like mountain peeps get some November accumulating snow Wednesday night and Thursday. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

The first snow map of the season. Awesome!!

Looks like some could see their first freeze next week. NAO looks to continue in negative territory where’s it been for a while but the PNA is heading back down also.

39 this morning. Our first morning in the 30s here in the western Piedmont. 66 this afternoon. Great day to be outside.

Nothing much in the long term to indicate our first frost in the SE before at least third week of October. However, in a shocking development, the west is progged to be much below normal over the next two weeks. Maybe this signals a reversal in winter fortunes this year. Last year I remember taking some cold rides in October and November. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

Read where the CPC is predicting 70% chance of weak La Nina from November through January. Weak La Nina's, generally speaking, are much better for the southeast than moderate or strong La Nina's. Years with weak LN's that produced bouts of wintry weather in the Southeast include 95/96, 83/84, and 00/01. Interestingly, 10/11 and 84/85 were moderate LN years and those were pretty active winters for the SE. Who knows. Not sure what I will see next...A SE snowstorm or a Clemson touchdown.