Upstate Tiger

12z Euro

Likewise, my parents and grandparents spoke often about that famous March. Grandfather said ice was on their back porch til the end of April. I've heard this period referred to as the "Holy Grail" of SE weather patterns with a persistent cross polar flow that lasted throughout March. BTW...looking at overnight models. The western ridge is showing up consistently in the long range but a Nina like Ohio Valley storm track continues to dominate. Hopefully the ridge axis shifts a bit east. Would not take a lot for the SE to be in the game with cold air over eastern Canada.

Thanks for all the work. Hopefully see something on Ops soon. Still like to see the NAO be neutral or negative but can’t have it all. PNA is a more important teleconnection so I’ll take it.

You can clearly see the ridge begin to build out west after the 21st. One thing is for sure. The reservoirs and snow pack in the west should have benefited from the ongoing pattern.

I hope. Reminds me of 1983/84. Was a freshman in college. We had the brutal cold snap at Christmas with no snow. Mild January. A mild February with one little 2” snow event. Bad tornado outbreak end of March in South Carolina.

I can’t Pivotal load. Anyone care to give a short synopsis of next weekend and the long term? I’m lookIng for a generational ice storm soon. Was testing the generator this morning and she gave up the ghost.

Well GW looks like we're back to watching teleconnections. At least the AO and PNA look better today long-range and MJO still looks good.

Yep, Euro transfers off the Delmarva.

Yep the Euro brought the goods this run.

I know its not much and cold air is marginal at best but watching next week.

12Z GFS and teleconnections say move along, nothing to see here today. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml

GW was going post similar thoughts. Some AN but not what I’d term a torch. I was actually looking forward to the 60s and some nice weather this weekend but had to keep my pullover and hat on all 18 holes Friday. Never saw 60 last 3 days here. Long range has looked much much worse.

You brought the mojo last January. I started the one the year before and the flowers were blooming by Feb 1st

Certainly not seeing anything in the operational models today. Was hoping to see some hint of change in the long range. One thing that has remained consistent is the lobe of cold air over eastern Canada during mid month. As already posted, the indices aren't bad but don't look as good as last few days. Hoping that is not a trend. Hate to waste last half of January in an unfavorable pattern. Still lots of time for change. In meantime, I'm going to enjoy golfing in 60 degree weather this weekend! Also Buckeye needs to start a new year thread...

Won't rehash this post because today's models are showing same. It will take a few days for the OPs to catch up with this transition. Hopefully we start to see some fantasy stuff in the long range by the end of the week.

Got down to 5 in Cherryville. Of course furnace went out overnight with house full of grandkids. Lucky we had gas logs. Unit was only installed last year. We’ve had no luck getting service.

Reached single digits in Cherryville at 9 degrees.

16 degrees in Cherryville at 730.

Looking at today's models, teleconnections, and MJO, I am still thinking our next chance of significant winter weather in the SE is after 1/4. NAO looks to go negative after 1/1, PNA is positive, lots of cold air has rebuilt in Canada, and ECMF has MJO moving into 7. IF that all were to happen, it could be fun times in our area.

Saw on Weather Channel that Denver will go from 52 at 300PM to -4 at 1200AM.

The NAO moves toward positive by the end of the month before heading back negative after the 1st. The PNA moves toward positive at the end of the month and remains slightly positive after the 1st. The latest from the CPC now has the La Nina lasting until February but in a waning state. Forecasts earlier in the fall had La Nina ending after the first of the year. Based on all this, my guess is after a relaxation of the cold at the end of the month, we could see another bout of cold in the east by the end of the first week in January. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml

As I was out rounding in the hospital this morning, I noticed the clouds rolling in and temps in the 20's. AAAhhh, what could have been...

It’s difficult to understand how this storm can be this far north and west with the anomalous blocking in the east and ridging in the west. I will say the 18z GFS is a much more realistic solution than the ECMF IMO.

Yes, kept it back and consolidated.

Don't sleep on the little system for Tuesday night, no pun intended. Some places could see a dusting across the foothills and piedmont of NC & SC.