Upstate Tiger

The next 10 days indicates that the weather won’t be good for the human body for those in the SE. The optimum ambient temperature for preserving and sustaining the human body is 67 degrees Fahrenheit. I heard that on Ancient Aliens….

Oh come on Josh...I know you will setting your alarm tonight for 1130 and 130.

06Z showing 4 winter threats in the next 2 weeks . Was going to aerate lawn and put out pre emergent tomorrow. If I follow through, we will have a 1960 redeux. If I don't, we will be in the 70's in the next two weeks.

Severe threat still appears to be on schedule for Friday: As of 225 PM EST Wednesday: A potent shortwave trough and closed upper low will take on a negative tilt as it ejects out of the Southern Plains Thursday night and lifts through the Tennessee Valley and into Ohio on Friday. This will push a strong cold front through the area that will bring a threat for severe thunderstorms. A warm front will quickly lift north Thursday night into Friday morning with the entire forecast area residing within an open warm sector by the early afternoon hours. Upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints will be common within the warm sector, which should be sufficient to support 500-1500 J/kg of surface-based CAPE across the area with the highest values across the Piedmont. This is concerning as shear profiles will be quite impressive. A 50-60kt low-level jet translating across Georgia and the Carolinas will help sweep out large cyclonically curved hodographs with 400-500 m2/s2 of 0-1km SRH and 40-45kts of 0-1km bulk shear. Deep-layer wind shear will also be impressive on the order of 70-80kts. The resulting parameter space will be more than supportive of all modes and hazards of severe weather. Details, however, will reside in the placement and magnitude of forcing and where the best CAPE/shear balance sets up shop. A very strong ~985mb surface low will lift into central Indiana with a pre- frontal surface trough extending into northeast Georgia and the Carolinas. While pressures will be low, the strongest surface pressure falls and height falls aloft will be displaced just northwest of the area. Early CAM/mesoscale guidance depicts a scenario where forcing is just enough to instigate a cellular storm mode while not being too strong for rapid upscale growth into a line of convection. This solution would support a broken band of supercells, which would yield a greater severe weather threat. The other uncertainty is the CAPE/shear balance as warm mid-level temperatures and poor lapse rates result in meager CAPE profiles. Resulting updrafts could struggle with such a strong magnitude of shear, but this could potentially be offset by stronger forcing/kinematics. With that being said, the current slight risk appears well placed across the area until details can get ironed out. An upgrade to higher severe probabilities cannot be ruled out either given the aforementioned parameter space. Winds will also be gusty outside of the severe weather threat, especially during peak heating/mixing within the warm sector. A high wind watch may eventually be needed across the higher terrain in the mountains with advisory level winds possible elsewhere.

Looking like Friday could see some severe weather in the SE.

It’s going to be interesting to see where trough axis sets up if the arctic intrusion occurs and if the storm track changes. Already in the last week we’ve seen the storm track a little further south and East and the NE is actually seeing regular rounds of wintry precipitation. It looks to edge even more further south next weekend with the mid Atlantic in play. It’s been such an odd winter pattern, who knows what will happen.

Everybody knows what a I am. But, unless we’re getting a 1993, 1980, 1971, or 1973 March repeat, give me some mid upper 60s and sun. It’s been a terrible winter for weekend golfers. Record cold in March with no snow doesn’t excite me.

Meanwhile...Blizzard warnings have been hoisted for LA and Ventura counties Friday through Saturday for the first time since 1989. It won't snow in the major cities but very nearby.

Looks like the PNA tries to go positive but not until after the first week of March. Two things you can always count on in March. The NAO and Clemson basketball tanking...

Well...if we don't officially reach 80, there's still a statistical chance for snow this year.

A quick check of GSP climate data reveals no significant snow after an 80+ degree max daily temp. A review of the 3 major March storms that I recall, 1980, 1983 and 1993… 1980 first 80+ 4/23/89: 1983 first 80+ 4/27/83: 1993 first 80+ 5/6/93. Historically, hitting the 80 degree mark is the death knell for SE snowstorms. Interestingly, Jan 99 had an 80 degree day. We did have a minor event later in the season.

Anecdotally, the first 80 degree plus day seems to be the rubicon whereby we never see snow afterword. Haven’t taken time to research, but I’m willing to bet the occurrences are very very rare. Seem to recall the week before Superstorm 93, it approached 80. Seems like we had some warm days in March of 83 but don’t recall if we ever hit 80.

Yep. I’ve been watching for signs that the PNA will rise but the forecast for the next 10 days keeps it at least moderately positive.

I’ll start a thread. The last one was so successful.

Yep!

Definitely worst I’ve seen since 2012 when I didn’t see a flake in the upstate. However, it was much warmer and drier that winter.

45/38 here in the Piedmont between Shelby and Lincolnton. Reports of sleet not to far way but we’ve had nothing but cold rain. Noticed it’s 41/38 at my old hometown of Easley in the upstate.

Good luck mountain folks! Gotta feelin there’ll be some big totals in the morning for some of y’all. Hope the power stays on!

Man what impressive dynamics over Mississippi! Not saying it will translate into anything in the lower elevations but someone is going to get raked tonight in the mountains.

This one stinks because it fizzled so dramatically. Hopefully with the end of Nina we can really have some storms to track next year. Who knows, this year may yield a surprise.

lilj, brought the wife to downtown Greenville tonight for Valentines weekend. First time here in 6 1/2 years since we moved to NC. Didn’t recognize the area. Amazing how much it’s grown. Still had an awesome time eating at Sobys and going to jazz club by the river.

Frustrating is an understatement. Hang in there though. This issue if far from settled. I am reserving all judgement until tomorrow's afternoon suite comes out.

By Saturday we should be in the jackpot zone

NAM was definitely an improvement for the foothills of the Carolinas. Now just just a little bit more to get us in the game from Shelby, Lincolnton, Mooresville line north and west.

When it comes to SE snow it is every man (lady) for himself!