Upstate Tiger

Just had hail with band that went through Lincolnton.

La Nina died a quiet death and we are now in an ENSO neutral state that looks to last into the fall. After that, forecasts favor a continuation of neautral or weak Nina. El Nino conditions are not favored at this time. I am all in on neutral for summer, fall, and winter. https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

While we are near 90 on Saturday, west Texas will experiencing a major snowstorm. Imagine jumping on a plane in Charlotte in sweltering heat and landing in Amarillo and a snowstorm?

That’s why I started wearing Depends.

Yep. Crazy looking at extended models and seeing how much snow is forecast across the US over the next 2 weeks. Indication of how cold will be in the lower 48. The pool will be frigid when it is opened in May.

Still remember that day. I was a freshman in college. Rained in the morning and then sun came out. When I came out of class after lunch, I remember walking across campus thinking “why is so hot and why am I sweating so much?” Had no idea what was on the way. Guys in the room next door to me in the dorm were from Marlboro County. Left as soon as they got word and went home to help. Had this outbreak happened in a more populated area, hundreds would have died. Article The worst tornado outbreak in Carolina History unfolded 41 years ago today. 24 tornadoes, 7 of which were EF-4, raced across the Carolinas at 65 mph. At the end of the 7 hour outbreak, 57 had been killed and over 1200 injured. Marlboro County took a devastating hit with 2 EF-4 tornadoes striking in less than an hour. One of those grew to 2.5 miles wide and was on the ground for 45 miles. The picture of the beam impaled in the ground below remains in Bennettsville as a monument to the outbreak. Jeffrey Bryant

We got .2 over about 2.5 hours. I’ll take it at this point and be grateful.

Looking like end of the month before any real chance of rain and even then it’s not a given.

I am sure many of you have already seen this report. I did not read it until this morning. Those rainfall totals are absolutely insane. The wind gusts were also bad for such a large area. https://www.wyff4.com/article/hurricane-helene-final-report-released-damage-deaths/64240516

7 of the next 10 days here forecast to have lows in the 30s. Just spring in the South. Will be begging for these cool days in a couple of months.

Yep. Been waiting on this March warmup but it's been a roller coaster at best and seems a lot more cool than warm. Not good for my new grass.

Visiting family in the upstate of SC today. Sun broke through about 30 minutes ago and it’s feeling juicy out.

Hope we get the rain but the severe can stay away

About as ominous as you will get from GSP this far out... https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

GFS with a 973MB bomb over the Midwest this weekend. That'll create some wind and some weather headlines. Edmond Fitzgerald storm was a 978.

Yes. That’s the point. Most of the big dogs I recall happened after a warm or mild spell, especially Feb or March. The Holy Grail March in the early 60s would certainly be an exception.

I’m ok if there’s no more winter weather. We had 3 minor events IMBY and we were in the mountains for an event. Plus it’s been cold since December. Need warm weather for the fairways to green up. However, keep in mind that major winter storms in the SE don’t usually occur in the middle of cold outbreaks. PD 1 it was 70 degrees one day before the storm. PD 2 it was 75 degrees on the Saturday before the big storm on Sunday Superstorm 93 it was in the 70s all week before. March 1, 1980 it was in the 60s most of the week. etc.

Since we have missed out on a big dog, would love to see one good area wide storm during this time frame, then I will be ready for spring. My fear is when it warms up, we will get dry.

On my way from Gastonia to Belmont and I 85 getting snow covered in the center lanes. Shoulders white.

Nice little dusting this morning in West Lincoln and still coming down. 28 degrees

I am looking for a March 93 re deaux during this time frame. Of course it will have to overcome... March sun angle - strong enought to melt glass Soil Temps - like lava Dry slot - like the parting of the Red Sea Gulf of America thunderstorms - they will have to evacuate oil rigs Warm nose - mid levels hotter than Chernobyl

Coming down good in West Lincoln.

NAM was better again for most of the state.

Would love to be posting on the obs board Thursday morning this same thing

GFS looked good for most of NC. Even some snow in northern GA and the upstate.