Upstate Tiger

GFS with a 973MB bomb over the Midwest this weekend. That'll create some wind and some weather headlines. Edmond Fitzgerald storm was a 978.

Yes. That’s the point. Most of the big dogs I recall happened after a warm or mild spell, especially Feb or March. The Holy Grail March in the early 60s would certainly be an exception.

I’m ok if there’s no more winter weather. We had 3 minor events IMBY and we were in the mountains for an event. Plus it’s been cold since December. Need warm weather for the fairways to green up. However, keep in mind that major winter storms in the SE don’t usually occur in the middle of cold outbreaks. PD 1 it was 70 degrees one day before the storm. PD 2 it was 75 degrees on the Saturday before the big storm on Sunday Superstorm 93 it was in the 70s all week before. March 1, 1980 it was in the 60s most of the week. etc.

Since we have missed out on a big dog, would love to see one good area wide storm during this time frame, then I will be ready for spring. My fear is when it warms up, we will get dry.

On my way from Gastonia to Belmont and I 85 getting snow covered in the center lanes. Shoulders white.

Nice little dusting this morning in West Lincoln and still coming down. 28 degrees

I am looking for a March 93 re deaux during this time frame. Of course it will have to overcome... March sun angle - strong enought to melt glass Soil Temps - like lava Dry slot - like the parting of the Red Sea Gulf of America thunderstorms - they will have to evacuate oil rigs Warm nose - mid levels hotter than Chernobyl

Coming down good in West Lincoln.

NAM was better again for most of the state.

Would love to be posting on the obs board Thursday morning this same thing

GFS looked good for most of NC. Even some snow in northern GA and the upstate.

GSP mentioned this afternoon that climatologically freezing rain is typically not widespread with a Miller A.

Disappointing Euro run considering other model trends.

GFS definitely gives some hope to the I 85 crowd. Let's see where the trends take us today.

Noticed on the last GFS and latest NAM snow bands building on the backside. Be something to watch as energy drops in on the backside.

Looking at the 18z GFS, that’s a text book Miller A track. Best set up we’ve had in a long time.

Maybe North Hills should change this thread to Wednesday Morning Minor Event. Sometimes you have to challenge the narrative for change to occur.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Yeah but we can we really trust the Canadian? They booed our national anthem.

Even the blue turd is getting excited. I’m going to buy my milk and bread now.

For you young ones, this kind of storm occurred often in the 70s and 80s except we didn’t have models or American Wx. Only Charlie Gertz on WYFF or Dr Joe on the radio to give us a 2 day heads up. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 100 PM Sat: Upper low will cut off over the northern Plains by Wednesday morning, with a low amplitude shortwave trough accelerating ahead of it and crossing the Mid-South Wednesday. This latter feature will advance to the NC/VA coast by early Thursday. Global models continue to depict Miller A-type sfc low near the central Gulf Coast at 12z Wed, which tracks generally to our south through Wednesday evening. Models appear to be in decent agreement on this general evolution. 12z cycle ECMWF, along with both EC and GFS Ensemble means, have trended toward a slightly faster deepening of the low although the track has not changed much. The closed upper low will be associated with a 1050+ mb high over eastern Montana and vicinity; ridging will extend to the Mid-Atlantic Coast and confluence downstream of the trough may lead to a small closed high to our north supporting CAD on Wed and a very dry sfc layer. The Miller-A is likely to bring precip shield over the area on Wed. The critical difference among models appears to be how well the precip overcomes what may be exceptionally dry air at onset, and how temps respond. There are slight differences in timing that limit confidence, but these temperature discrepancies are the main factor in a low-confidence forecast, at least in the sense of precip type trends or overall impact. The presence of ice nuclei does not appear to be an issue at the onset of precip, which most likely will not occur until after daybreak Wednesday; PoPs are mainly in the 10-30% range Tuesday night, reflecting possibility of earlier onset. The most plausible middle-ground scenario, taking this into account, is for rain or snow early in the event, even after PoPs ramp up into the likely to categorical range (from SW to NE) during the day Wed. With low confidence on temperature, have tried to minimize the expanse of subfreezing temps early in the event, leaving mention as a rain/snow mix in much of the CWA where temps hover just above freezing. A warm nose may also come into play and some sleet could mix in at this time. As the low passes the area Wed evening and drying occurs aloft, p-type changes to FZRA in portions of the Piedmont where temps fall below freezing; wraparound moisture keeps snow going over the mountains. Most precip will end Wednesday night, but NW flow snow could continue Thu along the TN border. The remainder of the forecast will be dry and cold as the Arctic air remains over the Southern US. Min/max temps will be 15-20 below normal Thu-Fri.

I only looked at the simulated radar but the GFS looked better on this run.

Euro is another flew blown Nor'easter right up the coast. The mountains likely to get a big NWF event out of that track.

Yep. The 540 is in VA surprise. Just a bit slower and we're in business..

Euro better than GFS. 1057 high over the Great Basin LOL