BxEngine
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OBS-Nowcast Noon Saturday 2/15-Noon Monday 2/17
BxEngine replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Just curious…how many times do we compare our snow totals to “good” seasons? Because all those good seasons had storms like this too, that got washed away either immediately or melted fairly quickly. So if we dont care about it now, we shouldnt count them in our seasonal snow totals either. Gotta lower 95-96 by some i guess. -
Saying they are less skillful is a completely different argument than “they receive no new data”. Thats simply not true. Back to the storm thread.
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https://ams.confex.com/ams/27WAF23NWP/webprogram/Handout/Paper273676/GFS4cycle_2015_NWP_Chicago_15A.pdf
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No, thats not true. They have less new data, especially upper air, but they still incorporate new data in between.
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if your previous posts about non weather are disappearing, maybe take a few min break. Go find some snow or something.
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Rude @IrishRob17 lol
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I need a trough in the east but no storms between the 28th and march 6th. Thanks to whoever makes that happen.
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D is hysterical lol im almost halfway to my avg winter total, we’ve had more snow events than most of the last few seasons, and its been colder than avg. at worst its a C right now.
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4” on the nose. 3rd event of at least a few inches, plus a white christmas, and a below avg (yeah yeah i know still warm as hell, not the point rjay lol) winter so far. Throw in a double digit storm at some point and this winter goes to a B+ or A- quickly.
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Agreed. Active patterns are at least not boring as hell, and we’ve had snow events. If we arent gonna get a monster storm, ill take this over the alternatives. Its february. Rooting for warm and dry is weird.
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Moderate to borderline heavy snow now. Im supposed to be in warwick at 10 am for a function, id really like to not have to go so if this changes to ice and screws the roads up till noon i wouldnt complain.
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I was mocking the anthonymm (among others) guy who said the metro would get .1
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Moderate snow, little over 1/2”. Guess this part of the metro will see a positive bust lol
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Base of sleet with snow on top before ending as freezing rain is gonna make tomorrow morning awesome.
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The area surrounded by 84 in orange, 287 in northern jersey down to rt 80, and up the hudson river is in no mans land right now, good luck with that forecast, geez.
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Zero anger at all. By stating you thought they got it backwards (which is literally what you said), thats criticism. It may be correct, constructive or otherwise. My point is that even constructive criticism should come from a place of knowledge, or at least using valid points of subjectivity if objectiveness isnt possible. It only takes a few minutes to read through these threads to find shitty troll posts criticizing the nws and then asking “what does this model show” etc. Criticism coming from a place of knowledge should be allowed and encouraged. But if we cant even be bothered to find basic answers to questions that are easily found on numerous websites, im not sure we should allow questioning of the nws from that point of view. That was my point. I obviously know you arent a troll and the intent wasnt coming from a bad place, but this thread has gotten out of control between the trolls and whining and its frustrating when good posters add to the snowman19 bs lol
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Just a thought…if its ok to criticize the professionals, we should probably be able to find this information using modeling websites.
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They always do. Every time. Its how it works. Its not an indication of the snowfall actually starting or reaching advisory criteria.
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96 was the worst here, the closest supermarket closed sunday afternoon and reopened tuesday afternoon. Not exactly life threatening.
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And if you say its gonna miss or not a big deal, then just move on. For some here its a decent weekend snow event. Repeating yourself in numerous threads saying non event is gonna be the end of the posting ability.
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Interpreting the model isnt the same as the objective output the model shows. If there is a warm nose that the nam is snowing only over the city, post the soundings. Dont just say there is a snow hole when there clearly isnt on that specific model.
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Honestly…i think RU or someone posted about it recently as well, but its easier for anyone with even basic knowledge to just have the 10:1 maps and adjust from there, vs the kuchera which tends to over-inflate totals. Better off looking at the actual just precip panels and compare it to the soundings, and do some basic math to work it out yourself. I only posted that map in reference to the nonsense about the nam showing a nyc snow hole. If we are going to interpret model output thats one thing…but the actual model output isnt subjective.
