wxmeddler

Interesting that the 12z Euro has a faster transition to negative tilt aloft. It's not as strong as the GFS but it's bending towards the GFS evolution. Still, relying on the cold conveyor belt for snow on a rapidly departing system is a bold move cotton.

There's no saving it with a further west neutral or even positive tilt system as it passes us.

I wanna know what the GFS is on, because it's good stuff whatever it is. It's got cooling 850 temps while warm air advection is happening.

Trend is definitely for a wetter system, but the trade off is that it goes negative tilt sooner, leading to a further west low.

If the GFS gets any more pinched off with the s/w we're just gonna get a bowling ball that runs too far south..

I'm overall dubious about the cold air coming in hard from the E/NE late in the game as shown by the GFS. That might work if there was a modified arctic high sitting over Quebec, but there isn't here.

lol

lol, didn't even have to look

I can't wait till it comes north only for the CAD to be too dry and we get nothing before the WAA comes in and gives us rain.

DC hit 77 that day.. Top 10: 1 79.0 1950-01-26 2 77.0 2002-01-30 - 77.0 1932-01-15 4 76.0 1975-01-29 - 76.0 1937-01-09 - 76.0 1932-01-14 - 76.0 1927-01-22 - 76.0 1907-01-07 - 76.0 1890-01-12 10 75.0 1975-01-11

No guidance had us getting into the upper 70's / flirting 80... We must really be mixing from up top.

Stafford AWOS has been on the fritz recently. Ignore.

Top 10 LWX/Dulles January Days

This former North Dakotan is DYING...

Favorite snow = convective snow with a big DGZ...

I'm gonna get the shaft between these 2 bands in Silver Spring. I can see the squall out my apartment window to the west by 2 miles.

Enjoy these last snow bands while you can... last heavy snow we're likely going to see until mid-Feb

By 21z our Sfc-700 lapse rates go up to about 6.5°/km and 7.5°/km from sfc-850. Those are excellent values for this region.

I see some measurements in the LSR's are measuring this event + the previous...

Decent hit, inverted trough present at 700mb right through NE MD..

So nice, Yoda posted it twice..

Clarksville MD Mesonet Station hit 2.1F... it's in a bit of a cold sink.

Not worried. Euro Mean has had us at .2" liquid for awhile now. This will be a 1-3" and we'll be happy. Timing will be key though as we want the start before sunrise to get a base layer down.

Need winds to die down in order for the bottom to drop out..

It's not like your name hasn't been plastered all over these boards since the days of Eastern...