wxmeddler
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Everything posted by wxmeddler
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This is why I don't trust Cut-Offs Edit: At D5... in a data-sparse region...
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I'm only through H72 but the cut-off is faster ejecting and the s/w is more amped. This is a more amped solution
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I prefer DIFAX Maps personally
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Classic Flash Freeze. Road & Air temps just above freezing. Get either light rain or snow, enough to get everything wet. Then clear skies post frontal turns everything to ice.
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Areas that got the snow today, temps are diving off a cliff this evening with the clear skies.
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The sky is an all-encompassing bright orange color right now due to the sunset reflection off of the baroclinic leaf overcast. Likely would be an epic sunset if it wasn't snowing.
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Snow TV good
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We have to pump up the weenies hopes and dreams before nature comes and crushes them... that's what the script says at least. Did you not receive a copy yet?
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You can accumulate at 35 if it's heavy enough. It'll be slop on the grass and wet pavement but it'll be pretty.
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Let me guess, DCA had 0.1” and it was all sleet.
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All sleet here in Eastern AA. Horrible.
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Some sort of large fire burning in southern Washington County near Sharpsburg.
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Good stuff.
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I've noticed over the years that 500mb jet streaks / vorticity "ribbons" coming in over the western ridge that go over Yellowstone tend to give us good Miller A events. Not anything scientific, just an sign that I look for.
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12z GFS inching towards my "Yellowstone Corridor" favorite spot. Good Stuff.
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I was about to contradict you, but nope, you're right. This is the stats for every January 13th in the last 30 years at DCA. 60% of all Jan 13th's (since 1996) have been at or above 50.
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Gonna get a 30 deg diurnal today somewhere.
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Just saw the 12z GFS and came in to say that whenever you have 3 streams/waves interacting, the results are either explosive or disappointing. And 90% of the time, it's the latter. Stay full-hearted weenies. The overall pattern is good and we're entering peak season.
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Sure, you could have the low stack stall out just off the coast producing a longer duration storm. In my mind, we would need that southern stream s/w to not eject or get so strung out that it gets folded into the oncoming impulse from the dakota's but I'm not holding my breath on that. But... This is a triple phase setup, so things usually get messy.
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Yeah. We're not really setting ourselves up for tapping as much moisture as we could be for storms this time of year. The unusual part of this pattern is really the ridge over the PacNW. I don't recall seeing a 588dm high over Nor-Cal this time of year. We're just seeing the downstream effects of that which includes cold air intrusions coming straight south from Hudson Bay.
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Regarding the moisture issue: Yeah, that's not going away. The positive tilt of the trough at H7 and H85 ahead (1) of the synoptics getting in line for us is not great for folding the sub-tropical air back up into our area (2). The leading s/w that kicks out from the sub-tropical jet (3) is a kick in the pants.
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Trust the Synoptics
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In a relative vorticity framework you get positive vorticity by either curvature (around a low) or by a positive change in wind speed to the right of the vector. Vort "lobes" tend to be produced by the curvature in, or in advance of a low, and the "ribbons" tend to be from areas of high wind shear across a horizontal distance. Look at an H5 wind map, then look at at an H5 Rel. Vort map, then flip them back and forth. You'll see it.
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Can't be upset with this at 5 days out. Not worth worrying about about the details (temps, banding, etc) now.
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Agreed. The tough issue with this potential that can't be changed is the approach of the pacific s/w. Normally, I like the "ribbon" coming through the Yellowstone region in a ESE direction. With the ridge so firmly anchored over Northern California, we're dealing with a wave diving out from the Dakotas to the SSE. But there's more than one way to bake a cake, and this seems to be one of them. Whatever works. lol
