wxmeddler

It hasn't really come up yet in the main thread but the radar hole / virga watching is going to be painful on Saturday night.

Yes, there seems to be a overzealous tendency for ZR instead of Sleet on the Euro. I expect way more sleet than ZR.

Verbatim? Likely bad (ie. Mixy). But it's more just an observation in general. The OpEuro mirrors it's companion AIFS fairly closely. The GFS... uh... not so much. That may mean something.

You know what's really interesting... The Euro-AIFS and AIGFS are really similar. Like scarily so.

When in doubt; Trust the Synoptics. And the Synoptics say that there will be a low tracking up the OHV. I don't see the GFS fast coastal solution being defensible when looking at the other guidance. Edit: I would love to be wrong

Mostly slower, what that means yet, I'm not sure. It's getting pretty locked in on the synoptic evolution it seems. A deceleration in the dProg/dT

Euro is trending slower w/ the primary.

You'd have to dig back in the other thread for the quote, but I've been saying since Monday that I think 12z Friday (tomorrow morning) is when it will be "lock in" time. I'm not a "fan" of course of the stronger 850 low going into the OHV but I think that is the most likely outcome here. The coastal hand off is my biggest unknown, and I have no hard "science based" direction on that. My gut tells me that it will be a late and we're gonna get the mix. Still lots to work out, and it's likely going to be a struggle and we're gonna be nowcasting on Sunday.

Interesting choice given his previous professional ties to the Harbaugh's

The RH at our Hancock station is currently 19%... 42/3. Gonna need the 55gal drum of Lip Balm

NAM has later/bigger phase with stout 850 low over the Ozarks. We get crushed in the initial hit but would for sure lead to mixing.

Ironically, the cut-off low that is being sampled is likely not the most uncertain piece of the puzzle.

Yep, not sure we should be celebrating or jumping off hypothetical bridges when we have this much run to run inconsistencies still. I've been telling stakeholders 12z Friday guidance is "lock-in" time since Monday AM. Patience.

So, they are. The thing is that this is by far an overrunning event rather than a typical CCB coastal event. These types of over-running events don't happen too often, and 95% of the time lead to mix or rain. Now, that said, this storm is different in that we have an extremely cold airmass embedding itself over the area on Friday. So things to look forward for are: 1. How / where does the phasing happen over the southern plains. The faster the Sub-Tropical Cut-Off (relative to the pacific stream s/w) ejection the better. 2. The placement and strength of the 850 low over the OHV. The weaker the better, though this is related to #1 3. The strength and more particularly the depth of the cold air wedge that develops on Friday. The stronger the better obviously.

Just want to point out / take a step back that regarding the potential evolution, even though the precipitation and outcomes look similar, we still have a long way to go in order to understand how this is going to unfold dynamically.

Because it's not a dynamical model, it doesn't have the levels to create soundings. I don't know if it even has 700mb output.

The cold front on Friday is really impressive. -19C at 850 is nuts for any front let alone one 36 hrs before a precip shield moves in. It could be quite bad.

I think the Chicago thing was a bit of a joke, but he is concerned about the 850 low tracking west of us and the coastal not developing as rapidly as advertised given that partial phasing is happening over the Ozarks.

He's been in informal communications with LWX. I think they are kind of all of on the same page that have been echoed here.

I think he's also used to an era that you could have a 300 mile shift 24 hours prior to an event and it not be uncommon.

To Clarify, He thinks we're going to get something, but is worried about an early changeover. And I think the "Rather be in Chicago" comment was a bit of an exaggeration. But I am worried about the 700mb temps with the 850 low tracking westward. He also noted that the Euro is a bit too amped on the coastal low takeovers in general. Don't shoot the messenger.

I had lunch with Louis Uccellini about an hour ago. He's very concerned about a westward trend going forward. Especially with an 850 low going into the OV. He's not convinced (at all) that the current evolution will hold. "I'd rather be in Chicago"

Gah damn. What a Synoptic setup.

Hell'uva phase. No longer a sliding over-runner.

This is why I don't trust Cut-Offs Edit: At D5... in a data-sparse region...