wxmeddler

Yeah, it will be interesting for you. Redhouse will likely switch over. Good news is that if it does flip over, it will be towards the end and 90% of your precip will have already fallen as Snow.

Trust the Synoptics

Louis was nervous about the inland sfc low tracking to Cleveland. I was never that far-out but I was very much on the "850 Low to the OHV" Train, which... ya know.

I can go lower if u want.. Trend last 12 hours seems fairly clear that the cold front is over-performing a bit. Not too surprising, but even an hour or three of extra CAD really bumps the totals up when you're dealing with up to 2" hr rates.

?? Last time I posted prior to that one was last night. Anyway. I'm still very much concerned about the sleet. I've been fairly adamant / confident that the sleet line would make it to the M/D Line. Still expecting a major sleet fest come Sunday Mid-Morning lasting through evening.

That would be FZRA. A "rule of thumb" is if you integrate the area above 0c vs below 0c and compare the "area". If Above 0C > Below 0C then FZRA.

Cautiously optimistic. If it gets too "drifty" you can get some weird maps. Can't make an accurate snow total with a 2ft x 2ft wide area.

My call before the flip-over: Southern MD & Eastern Shore: 6-10" I-95 Corridor: 8-12" Parr's Ridge and NW: 10-14" Allegany & Garrett: 12-16" (Unlikely to Flip)

It's subtle, the GFS did cave a bit back to the west at 850mb looking at the isohypses. Not as far as other global guidance (Euro, UKMET, CMC, etc.) It's still very aggressive on it's coastal development along the warm front. More so than other models, which in turn slows down the WF advance northward.

Everyone is still getting a front end thump. 4-6-10 (SE-I-95-BlueRidge). My main concern is actually how much WAA we get in the lower levels. Sleet is a pain but can be plowed and shoveled. Freezing Rain? Whole other ball game. Right now I'm leaning "Sleet-Fest Sunday" but it's close for our southern friends.

Yeahhh... The AI's, Euro, and MPAS based cores seem to be leaning that way. In a way the coastal "low" is just pressure falls along the warm front due to the insane isentropic lift occurring.

I was aware that the FV3 based RRFS got absolutely shellacked in testing with offices and centers. It originally also supposed to go to 72hrs only and there was outcry of loosing the extra 12 hrs the NAM provided. They *points vaguely* folded on both thankfully

Such a flawed core (Sorry to all those at EMC, you all do great work), MPAS for the win.

There is. It's the NAM Fire Nest. Not usually shown on modeling sites, but it is out there.

The radio shows were awesome. Wonder if anyone ever recorded them. They are gold.

OMG, my Dew Point is -10 and the 1k AGL sim radar said it was supposed to start by now! The Dry Air is Eating my snow! I'm gonna get half of what I was expecting before the flip over! Game Over Man!

It hasn't really come up yet in the main thread but the radar hole / virga watching is going to be painful on Saturday night.

Yes, there seems to be a overzealous tendency for ZR instead of Sleet on the Euro. I expect way more sleet than ZR.

Verbatim? Likely bad (ie. Mixy). But it's more just an observation in general. The OpEuro mirrors it's companion AIFS fairly closely. The GFS... uh... not so much. That may mean something.

You know what's really interesting... The Euro-AIFS and AIGFS are really similar. Like scarily so.

When in doubt; Trust the Synoptics. And the Synoptics say that there will be a low tracking up the OHV. I don't see the GFS fast coastal solution being defensible when looking at the other guidance. Edit: I would love to be wrong

Mostly slower, what that means yet, I'm not sure. It's getting pretty locked in on the synoptic evolution it seems. A deceleration in the dProg/dT

Euro is trending slower w/ the primary.

You'd have to dig back in the other thread for the quote, but I've been saying since Monday that I think 12z Friday (tomorrow morning) is when it will be "lock in" time. I'm not a "fan" of course of the stronger 850 low going into the OHV but I think that is the most likely outcome here. The coastal hand off is my biggest unknown, and I have no hard "science based" direction on that. My gut tells me that it will be a late and we're gonna get the mix. Still lots to work out, and it's likely going to be a struggle and we're gonna be nowcasting on Sunday.

Interesting choice given his previous professional ties to the Harbaugh's