wxmeddler
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Everything posted by wxmeddler
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I think the Chicago thing was a bit of a joke, but he is concerned about the 850 low tracking west of us and the coastal not developing as rapidly as advertised given that partial phasing is happening over the Ozarks.
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He's been in informal communications with LWX. I think they are kind of all of on the same page that have been echoed here.
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I think he's also used to an era that you could have a 300 mile shift 24 hours prior to an event and it not be uncommon.
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To Clarify, He thinks we're going to get something, but is worried about an early changeover. And I think the "Rather be in Chicago" comment was a bit of an exaggeration. But I am worried about the 700mb temps with the 850 low tracking westward. He also noted that the Euro is a bit too amped on the coastal low takeovers in general. Don't shoot the messenger.
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I had lunch with Louis Uccellini about an hour ago. He's very concerned about a westward trend going forward. Especially with an 850 low going into the OV. He's not convinced (at all) that the current evolution will hold. "I'd rather be in Chicago"
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Gah damn. What a Synoptic setup.
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Hell'uva phase. No longer a sliding over-runner.
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This is why I don't trust Cut-Offs Edit: At D5... in a data-sparse region...
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I'm only through H72 but the cut-off is faster ejecting and the s/w is more amped. This is a more amped solution
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I prefer DIFAX Maps personally
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Classic Flash Freeze. Road & Air temps just above freezing. Get either light rain or snow, enough to get everything wet. Then clear skies post frontal turns everything to ice.
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Areas that got the snow today, temps are diving off a cliff this evening with the clear skies.
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The sky is an all-encompassing bright orange color right now due to the sunset reflection off of the baroclinic leaf overcast. Likely would be an epic sunset if it wasn't snowing.
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Snow TV good
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We have to pump up the weenies hopes and dreams before nature comes and crushes them... that's what the script says at least. Did you not receive a copy yet?
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You can accumulate at 35 if it's heavy enough. It'll be slop on the grass and wet pavement but it'll be pretty.
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Let me guess, DCA had 0.1” and it was all sleet.
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All sleet here in Eastern AA. Horrible.
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Some sort of large fire burning in southern Washington County near Sharpsburg.
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Good stuff.
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I've noticed over the years that 500mb jet streaks / vorticity "ribbons" coming in over the western ridge that go over Yellowstone tend to give us good Miller A events. Not anything scientific, just an sign that I look for.
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12z GFS inching towards my "Yellowstone Corridor" favorite spot. Good Stuff.
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I was about to contradict you, but nope, you're right. This is the stats for every January 13th in the last 30 years at DCA. 60% of all Jan 13th's (since 1996) have been at or above 50.
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Gonna get a 30 deg diurnal today somewhere.
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Just saw the 12z GFS and came in to say that whenever you have 3 streams/waves interacting, the results are either explosive or disappointing. And 90% of the time, it's the latter. Stay full-hearted weenies. The overall pattern is good and we're entering peak season.
