wxmeddler

Cautiously optimistic. If it gets too "drifty" you can get some weird maps. Can't make an accurate snow total with a 2ft x 2ft wide area.

My call before the flip-over: Southern MD & Eastern Shore: 6-10" I-95 Corridor: 8-12" Parr's Ridge and NW: 10-14" Allegany & Garrett: 12-16" (Unlikely to Flip)

It's subtle, the GFS did cave a bit back to the west at 850mb looking at the isohypses. Not as far as other global guidance (Euro, UKMET, CMC, etc.) It's still very aggressive on it's coastal development along the warm front. More so than other models, which in turn slows down the WF advance northward.

Everyone is still getting a front end thump. 4-6-10 (SE-I-95-BlueRidge). My main concern is actually how much WAA we get in the lower levels. Sleet is a pain but can be plowed and shoveled. Freezing Rain? Whole other ball game. Right now I'm leaning "Sleet-Fest Sunday" but it's close for our southern friends.

Yeahhh... The AI's, Euro, and MPAS based cores seem to be leaning that way. In a way the coastal "low" is just pressure falls along the warm front due to the insane isentropic lift occurring.

I was aware that the FV3 based RRFS got absolutely shellacked in testing with offices and centers. It originally also supposed to go to 72hrs only and there was outcry of loosing the extra 12 hrs the NAM provided. They *points vaguely* folded on both thankfully

Such a flawed core (Sorry to all those at EMC, you all do great work), MPAS for the win.

There is. It's the NAM Fire Nest. Not usually shown on modeling sites, but it is out there.

The radio shows were awesome. Wonder if anyone ever recorded them. They are gold.

OMG, my Dew Point is -10 and the 1k AGL sim radar said it was supposed to start by now! The Dry Air is Eating my snow! I'm gonna get half of what I was expecting before the flip over! Game Over Man!

It hasn't really come up yet in the main thread but the radar hole / virga watching is going to be painful on Saturday night.

Yes, there seems to be a overzealous tendency for ZR instead of Sleet on the Euro. I expect way more sleet than ZR.

Verbatim? Likely bad (ie. Mixy). But it's more just an observation in general. The OpEuro mirrors it's companion AIFS fairly closely. The GFS... uh... not so much. That may mean something.

You know what's really interesting... The Euro-AIFS and AIGFS are really similar. Like scarily so.

When in doubt; Trust the Synoptics. And the Synoptics say that there will be a low tracking up the OHV. I don't see the GFS fast coastal solution being defensible when looking at the other guidance. Edit: I would love to be wrong

Mostly slower, what that means yet, I'm not sure. It's getting pretty locked in on the synoptic evolution it seems. A deceleration in the dProg/dT

Euro is trending slower w/ the primary.

You'd have to dig back in the other thread for the quote, but I've been saying since Monday that I think 12z Friday (tomorrow morning) is when it will be "lock in" time. I'm not a "fan" of course of the stronger 850 low going into the OHV but I think that is the most likely outcome here. The coastal hand off is my biggest unknown, and I have no hard "science based" direction on that. My gut tells me that it will be a late and we're gonna get the mix. Still lots to work out, and it's likely going to be a struggle and we're gonna be nowcasting on Sunday.

Interesting choice given his previous professional ties to the Harbaugh's

The RH at our Hancock station is currently 19%... 42/3. Gonna need the 55gal drum of Lip Balm

NAM has later/bigger phase with stout 850 low over the Ozarks. We get crushed in the initial hit but would for sure lead to mixing.

Ironically, the cut-off low that is being sampled is likely not the most uncertain piece of the puzzle.

Yep, not sure we should be celebrating or jumping off hypothetical bridges when we have this much run to run inconsistencies still. I've been telling stakeholders 12z Friday guidance is "lock-in" time since Monday AM. Patience.

So, they are. The thing is that this is by far an overrunning event rather than a typical CCB coastal event. These types of over-running events don't happen too often, and 95% of the time lead to mix or rain. Now, that said, this storm is different in that we have an extremely cold airmass embedding itself over the area on Friday. So things to look forward for are: 1. How / where does the phasing happen over the southern plains. The faster the Sub-Tropical Cut-Off (relative to the pacific stream s/w) ejection the better. 2. The placement and strength of the 850 low over the OHV. The weaker the better, though this is related to #1 3. The strength and more particularly the depth of the cold air wedge that develops on Friday. The stronger the better obviously.

Just want to point out / take a step back that regarding the potential evolution, even though the precipitation and outcomes look similar, we still have a long way to go in order to understand how this is going to unfold dynamically.