wxmeddler

That would be +RASN

Haven't talked to him but he would say the lack of a coupled jet preceeding the amplification doesn't bode well for getting the cold air in place (Which of know). I think he'd say that there's a higher than normal bust potential given the lack of a incipient cold wedge. But the dynamics are really high, so it should overcome.

I think even with the less than optimal surface temperatures the NAM give the I-95 corridor north of Fredericksburg 6-8" system total. Edit: But it's gonna be slop.

Stronger and further west at H5 coming out from the northern plains

I got woken up by the sound of heavy rain. I went to go see and just after I opened the door I saw a flash of light. I thought to myself “no, can’t be” then boom. Yep! What a surprise that is!

Cut-Off's (especially decaying ones) suck to forecast man...

Need the Alberta s/w to either show up in the OHV 12 hrs earlier or just not show up at all. Euro has the messiest of both.

I'm at H42, southern stream s/w looks slightly deeper and a tad west. The alberta s/w is very strung out over the dakotas. The "middle stream" s/w is getting ahead of the southern s/w. Looks messy.

AIFS brings in the Alberta s/w faster and thus is later with the phase. It takes longer / further east to go negative tilt. Ironically, the opposite of the direction of the trends with the GFS/NAM with the alberta s/w lagging behind and not interacting with the southern stream, and acting as more like a kicker.

Oh man, that's pretty.

Looks like the NAM more than anything else, the Alberta s/w is hanging back.

I'm not a fan of the FV3 core at sub-10km-ish scales. Glad the plan is to drop it in favor of MPAS. However, we're gonna loose the NAM and have the RRFS FV3 only for a year or two before the switch to MPAS apparently.

It's good. The lagging s/w coming out of Alberta is interesting, but good trends for the coastal.

Much more negatively tilted on the 18z EPS / AIEPS. Still goes to our east / too late to curl into the coast, but a concession.

Holy Shift