hawkeye_wx

Here are some photos from my neighborhood. The first two are my backyard.

The initial training storms missed me to the northeast (up to 4-5" fell between CR and Dubuque), but the tail of the MCS dropped a solid line of storms through the area. I finished with 1.06" of rain. This may have been the first overnight MCS of the year. This morning's GFS and Canadian have moved to the Rockies cut-off low scenario, which should put the kibosh on the huge rain totals some models have been spitting out. The GFS only has another 1.50" falling here all week. Update: The 12z UK cuts the upper low of over Utah. *sigh*

Ugh. The Euro just flipped all the way back to cutting the upper low off over the Rockies. It never really ejects eastward. In one run it shifts from Missouri to Wyoming. C'mon, man.

Yeah, this run cuts off the upper low just in the right place and it crawls eastward just to the south of Iowa. It could still easily pan out differently, like what the UK is showing (farther south and west), which would not drop nearly as much rain.

I sure am liking these 40s dewpoint days.

Models continue to shift the energy around a bit... more cut off and west one run, more progressive and east the next. The widespread good rain totals across this area remain consistent, though.

The Euro has greatly backed off the scenario showing the energy cutting off well to the west of the region. Models are now in pretty good agreement the energy will pinch off a bit over the central plains into the upper midwest. That would keep the conveyor of rain aimed at the western subforum region through the end of the week.

Yikes! I may have to dig out and dust off my winter coat Tuesday. That is going to feel COLD.

Last night's Euro corrected back southeast somewhat next week. It still cuts off an upper low to the west, but the frontal passage is a day or two earlier for our region compared to yesterday's extreme outlier run.

Nana was upgraded when a burst of convection fired over the center, but now the convection has been sheared back south. Recon just made a final pass and found the pressure up and the wind down.

It was pretty warm today (upper 80s), but the dew was in the 40s so it wasn't bad.

The new recon has the pressure down to ~994 mb, but the wind is meager.

Yeah, the GFS is holding steady with its forecast. It's not even hinting that anything resembling today's Euro is possible.

What the g** d*** f***? The models have been locked into the big chill next week. The Euro has been trending slower and now has totally removed the big chill as a piece of energy cuts off well to the west and keeps pumping the heat up into the midwest. Now it's 90s through Wednesday. Ugh! I sure hope this is wrong and it'll correct back toward a cooler solution like the GFS.

The convection keeps getting shoved south of the center by stiff northerly shear, preventing it from strengthening into a hurricane.

Nice little, tight core now... Nana for sure.

Nice tree, but way too big. The old tree was an Amur maple, which gets about 20 ft tall. I want the new tree to be about the same size.

Yep, the cells are now petering out, so very few locations will get anything from this.

I'd rather have a more general rain or garden variety light storm, anyway. This afternoon's cells would probably have produced more wind/hail than the small amount of rain was worth. I don't have my fence to shelter the plants anymore.

A big ol' goose egg here.

A broken line of cells has popped to my north and west. There is a warning out in central Iowa.

Last day of the heat wave, thankfully. You don't realize how important a backyard/patio shade tree is until it's gone.

Everything here looks like crap. The derecho shredded the trees and the drought is baking the lawns.

I actually did not get a lot from these two events. The April event dropped some decent pea to nickel hail, which was cool to see, but only 0.09" of rain. The July event was a solid storm, but it only dropped 0.42" of rain, and the damaging wind was on the north and east sides of CR and I'm on the west side.