hawkeye_wx
-
Posts
6,360 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by hawkeye_wx
-
My August rain total is 2.04". My met summer rain total is 6.21".
-
A good part of eastern Iowa has been upgraded to extreme drought. After decent recovery in early August, my lawn is now baked and crunchy.
-
They've only been in the air for a few hours and they are very close to home, so I would think they'll stay in the storm for several more passes.
-
Brand new dropsonde says 944 mb with 29 kt wind, so 941-942 mb. I mentioned a little while ago that some dry air got wrapped into the outer core. One thing that did was eliminate the competition from outer core bands, so all the energy is going into the inner eyewall.
-
Radar shows a slug of dry air has been pulled into the east side of the core. That part of the core has dried out somewhat. Any outer core bands have been broken up and the eastern eyewall does not appear as thick or robust as the west side.
-
To be honest, the new recon's initial wind measurements are kinda meh for a 946 mb storm... 107 kts flight level (se quad) and 101 kts SFMR (nw quad). In the southeast quad, the SFMR is only 79 kts.
-
New center dropsonde says 961 mb. Northeast quad wind is only 92 kts flight level, 80 kts SFMR.
-
Latest dropsonde says 962 mb with a 25 kt wind, so 960 mb..... but only 94 kts flight level, 79 kts SFMR in the southeast quad.
-
Brand new dropsonde says 965 mb.
-
4 mb drop in last 1 hour 24 minutes.
-
Recon data doesn't look much better than earlier. Dropsonde will probably say a 1 or 2 mb drop, that's all. No wind in the nw eyewall isn't what I expected.
-
We are now getting a nice burst of lightning in the eyewall. It's really looking good.
-
I'm surprised they don't have another recon plane in there now. NHC's schedule says there will be a new plane in the storm every three hours, beginning at 2030z this afternoon.
-
The pressure dropped 1 mb since the last recon pass (50 minutes). The visible loop shows new towers beginning to pinwheel around the eye, so it should be entering another strengthening phase. It's just a question of how fast it can solidify the eyewall and drop the pressure.
-
The third recon pass this morning is also 978 mb, so Idalia remains in a holding pattern. Landfall is only 24 hours away, so it will really need to step on the gas later today.
-
Hurricane Franklin, well off the US southeast coast, has cratered to 926 mb this evening. 72 hours ago it was 1003 mb and highly sheared.
-
Dropsonde says 926 mb.... very impressive. The cloud tops have warmed a bit, so perhaps Franklin has peaked.
-
This run of the GFS has the storm at 989 mb Tuesday evening. It's probably 985 mb now, so unlikely to be right.
-
Franklin has become a very impressive hurricane. Let's hope it can hold this intensity until the next recon plane gets in there this evening.
-
Models mostly predicted this system would have issues until it got into the gulf Monday night and Tuesday. It has done well to get down to 990 mb, but, as others have noted, it has yet to be able to wrap the convection around the surface center. It continues to try, but so far it's just a series of strong cells trying hard to hold onto the center while being pushed back south/southeast by some dry, shearing flow.
-
We spend a lot of time watching the models to see how strong these storms may get. We are doing that now with Idalia. Last night's 00z Euro is already off by 30 mb for Franklin. The Euro predicted a 966 mb hurricane this morning.
-
The pressure fell 6-7 mb during the 1.5 hour period between the first and second recon pass.
-
Franklin is really taking off now. The new recon plane found 941 mb (extrap) and 123 kt flight level wind. Update: 943 mb per recon dropsonde. The NHC may quickly upgrade this to 135 mph.
-
965 mb now per the new recon.
-
That's a pretty good surface pressure for a young, disjointed system with a naked center.
