hawkeye_wx

2023

JFK airport in NYC got more rain this morning than Cedar Rapids has received since mid May.

As expected, there is improvement in the drought across the midwest where the good rain fell over the weekend. Chicagoland is almost entire out of it. The swath of exceptional drought in the MN/IA/WI tri-state area is gone. The only exceptional drought remaining in the midwest region is near Cedar Rapids. It's possible it could expand over CR in the next week or two as we get a bunch of 80s with no rain.

After getting nothing over the weekend, we got nothing again today as the upper low moved over us. It appears I will finish September with only 1.08" of rain, the driest month of 2023.

It appears Madison, and much of southern Wisconsin, got a nice soaker overnight.

Epic bust. For two weeks models locked in on this weekend for potential widespread, good rain. Only a few days ago the Euro had 2-3+ inches falling across all of Iowa and surrounding areas. The GFS was similar. Even as they backed off, they still showed scattered showers and storms moving into eastern Iowa Saturday night. Instead, there wasn't even anything in central Iowa and now a backdoor front has swept dry air into eastern Iowa, effectively ending any rain chance. Cedar Rapids has officially received 0.00" from this system. I got 0.23" Friday. The only hope remaining is the upper low as it drifts southeast across the region Monday night into Tuesday. Most models have been keeping most of the rain northeast of here, from se MN to northern IL. A few models are tracking the upper low a bit farther sw and tease some decent rain here, so there is still a chance to salvage something out of this.

Models were split/back-and-forth regarding whether or not the tail of the Iowa disturbance would build south enough to hit Cedar Rapids. It did not. A couple slow-moving, strong cells are dumping heavy rain nw of CR, but late Saturday into Sunday will have to come through for us.

A strong cell passing just nw of Cedar Rapids has been tornado-warned for a while. The sirens have gone off here a couple times, even though CR is not in the path.

I picked up a very quick quarter inch midday as a thin line lifted north through the area. It was the heaviest downpour I've seen in months. Cyclone, from the same line, got over an inch, so he's really doing well this month.

Exceptional drought, the highest level, is now expanding. Quad Cities NWS says this is the first time there has ever been exceptional drought in east-central Iowa (since 1999).

Similar here... was supposed to be sunny and low 80s, but the low backed into southeast Iowa and pulled a bunch of clouds and cool air into my area. We jumped to 76 early, but fell back.

The drying trend from the east on the models continues. The great lakes ridge is becoming stronger every run.

The model trend for this weekend into early next week is bad. There is now unanimous agreement that blocking will win and this system will hit a brick wall over Iowa/Minnesota. Those juiced-up Euro runs are long gone. The GEFS and EPS qpf mean have really dried out from Cedar Rapids to Minneapolis, with nothing east of there. 2023 just keeps on giving.

We added 0.26" last night, making yesterday's event somewhat decent (0.42").

Meanwhile, the GFS has removed all rain this weekend into early next week because of a blocking ridge, and most recent Canadian runs have shown the blocking as well. It's too volatile to count on anything at this point.

It's a complicated, blocky pattern and models are showing wild fluctuations from run to run, but, overall, it's looking up for Iowa at least. The new op Euro stalls the upper low over our western subforum area and would be ideal... inches of rain over several days. The EPS qpf mean, however, only has 1.25-1.50" through the period, though, which means there are also plenty of drier ensemble members, so a lot can change.

Nope. 0.16" in my gauge. The best rain split north and south of Cedar Rapids. The entire spring and summer rain season has been an absolute dumpster fire. May-Sep 2023 is now drier than May-Sep 2012. We are now 12 inches of rain below avg during that period. There is hope for some actual good rain this weekend, but I won't believe it until I see it in my gauge.

I'm pumped for tonight's 0.10" of rain with a few rumbles of thunder. Most models show most of the rain will be north and east of Cedar Rapids.

Small, slow-moving lows sure like dumping on Chicagoland this summer.

As most models suggested, we got nothing out of this front. The next week looks dry. It's amazing how difficult it is to get rain this year.

The GFS is still solid, but the Euro has reversed the positive trend and is going backward. The Euro is now trying to cut off a big low over the southeast US and also the Rockies/plains, with a blocking ridge forming over the lakes that does not allow much moisture to get into our region through day ten. It's giving me a flashback to our awful spring pattern.

I'm really liking the model trend for late in the month. For weeks, the op GFS has been mostly bone dry across Iowa and surrounding areas, and it has been correct. Recent runs, however, have become much wetter across the region, beyond week one, with 2-3" in spots. The GEFS and EPS mean continue to gradually moisten up, region-wide, as well.

Only 0.35" of rain overnight, at the low end of the model range. Now, it's back to bone dry for the next two weeks.

What the f'ing heck is going on with the models and tonight's wave? The Euro has flipped flopped several times now. Last night it went more bullish and north than ever, dropping 1.7" here. This morning it's right back south and only 0.30" here, now the driest of all models. The ensemble mean is flopping around, too. This is stupid.

Models are struggling with this wave. The Euro has generally been one of the more bullish models, but it has been all over the place. Yesterday's 12z run mostly took Cedar Rapids out of it, but the new 00z run is the most bullish, yet, with a swath of rain through Cedar Rapids of well over an inch. The GFS and other models have also become more bullish overnight. After this wave, models are very dry into late September, so we really need this.