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hawkeye_wx

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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx

  1. hawkeye_wx
    It's not 907 mb. The latest recon passes found ~914 mb.
  2. hawkeye_wx
    Latest dropsonde says 913 mb. Max nw side FL wind is 158 kts.
  3. hawkeye_wx
    This afternoon is when models have it taking a fairly sharp right turn.
  4. hawkeye_wx
    Dropsonde says 924 mb
  5. hawkeye_wx
    The next recon plane just took off from Curacao and will be in the eye in a couple hours.
  6. hawkeye_wx
    Latest recon pass found 128 kts flight level in the right quad, so that has been pretty steady.
  7. hawkeye_wx
    933 mb from the dropsonde
  8. hawkeye_wx
    extrap 932 mb
  9. hawkeye_wx
    It appears the Google DeepMind model will be one of the winners again. Several other models kept wanting to bring Melissa farther north, in between Haiti and Jamaica or into eastern Jamaica from the east/southeast. The Google ensembles never budged from the wsw/west track to the south of Jamaica.
  10. hawkeye_wx
    Next recon is scheduled to be in there around 2330z. Every 6 hours there will be a new recon plane.
  11. hawkeye_wx
    So what about the previous 10 recon passes today that did not confirm the NHC intensity? Did those not count? The NHC even said in their discussion their estimate might be generous. It's no big deal. It was likely going to strengthen more at some point today/tonight. Melissa absolutely looks better now than it did this morning. Much sharper edges of the eye and CDO.
  12. hawkeye_wx
    Dropsonde says ~944 mb.
  13. hawkeye_wx
    The wind still hasn't risen at all today. Satellite looks like cat 4, but recon hasn't found any cat 4 FL wind.
  14. hawkeye_wx
    Pressure has dropped to 947 mb, so intensification has resumed.
  15. hawkeye_wx
    3rd recon pass this morning continues to find a steady-state storm. The pressure is 953 mb, actually up a hair, and 120 kts flight level in the right (strongest) quad, which equates to 125 mph at the surface using the NHC's 0.9 method.
  16. hawkeye_wx
    The new recon plane suggests this is actually not a cat 4. The latest NHC estimate is too low by 8 mb. The pressure has only dropped from 959 to 952 over the last several hours. Also, the new plane did not find any increase in wind on its first pass, whereas the NHC increased the wind by 20 mph.
  17. hawkeye_wx
    Officially 959 mb from the dropsonde.
  18. hawkeye_wx
    Final recon pass until morning found 114 kts flight level and 959 mb extrap. This thing is barely moving.
  19. hawkeye_wx
    967 mb, 115 kts flight level on the last pass. The eye has been tracking south of west this evening.
  20. hawkeye_wx
    969 mb, 111 kts flight level wind It is nearing cat 3.
  21. hawkeye_wx
  22. hawkeye_wx
    Still 971 mb... no drop over the last 90 minutes.
  23. hawkeye_wx
    97 kts flight level, 970 mb extrap
  24. hawkeye_wx
  25. hawkeye_wx
    The Google model continues to not budge. Many of its tracks are south of west for the next couple days.
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