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hawkeye_wx

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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx

  1. hawkeye_wx
    173 kts flight level wind from the new NOAA recon, a new high for the storm, and that isn't even in the right quad.
  2. hawkeye_wx
    It appears the worst will be from Crawford, where Josh supposedly is, to Black River, just to the east.
  3. hawkeye_wx
    Holy cow..... officially 892 mb.
  4. hawkeye_wx
    Recon continues to circle around inside the eye.
  5. hawkeye_wx
    Max wind in se quad is 165 kts at flight level.
  6. hawkeye_wx
    It is clear something favorable happened to the inner core structure in the last two hours. The CDO suddenly appears even stronger, the eye has grown in size, and there has been an explosion of intense lightning surrounding the eye.
  7. hawkeye_wx
    Final recon pass is 902 mb.... not going to get sub-900 for now.
  8. hawkeye_wx
    It does appear recon is going in for one more pass.
  9. hawkeye_wx
    Ugh.... I was hoping for 899 mb on this final recon pass. The FL wind is also 165 kts now.
  10. hawkeye_wx
    Latest Google track
  11. hawkeye_wx
    It hasn't moved in the last 90 minutes.
  12. hawkeye_wx
    It's not 907 mb. The latest recon passes found ~914 mb.
  13. hawkeye_wx
    Latest dropsonde says 913 mb. Max nw side FL wind is 158 kts.
  14. hawkeye_wx
    This afternoon is when models have it taking a fairly sharp right turn.
  15. hawkeye_wx
    Dropsonde says 924 mb
  16. hawkeye_wx
    The next recon plane just took off from Curacao and will be in the eye in a couple hours.
  17. hawkeye_wx
    Latest recon pass found 128 kts flight level in the right quad, so that has been pretty steady.
  18. hawkeye_wx
    933 mb from the dropsonde
  19. hawkeye_wx
    extrap 932 mb
  20. hawkeye_wx
    It appears the Google DeepMind model will be one of the winners again. Several other models kept wanting to bring Melissa farther north, in between Haiti and Jamaica or into eastern Jamaica from the east/southeast. The Google ensembles never budged from the wsw/west track to the south of Jamaica.
  21. hawkeye_wx
    Next recon is scheduled to be in there around 2330z. Every 6 hours there will be a new recon plane.
  22. hawkeye_wx
    So what about the previous 10 recon passes today that did not confirm the NHC intensity? Did those not count? The NHC even said in their discussion their estimate might be generous. It's no big deal. It was likely going to strengthen more at some point today/tonight. Melissa absolutely looks better now than it did this morning. Much sharper edges of the eye and CDO.
  23. hawkeye_wx
    Dropsonde says ~944 mb.
  24. hawkeye_wx
    The wind still hasn't risen at all today. Satellite looks like cat 4, but recon hasn't found any cat 4 FL wind.
  25. hawkeye_wx
    Pressure has dropped to 947 mb, so intensification has resumed.
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