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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx
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2024 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion
hawkeye_wx replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
I got 2.56" of rain (still raining lightly), the most from a single storm in about ten years I think. Unfortunately, the wind blew it against the house for an hour, so it ran down the foundation and into the basement. -
2024 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion
hawkeye_wx replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
97 mph gust reported just west of Dubuque. -
2024 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion
hawkeye_wx replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
It is real nasty here. Torrential rain, wind sustained at 40 mph, gusting to 60 mph for the last 10+ minutes.... easily our worst storm since the derecho. -
2024 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion
hawkeye_wx replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Severe wind has now hit Cedar Rapids. My trees just held on during some big gusts. -
2024 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion
hawkeye_wx replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Well, the sw tail of the storm is building back to the wsw, so I'm getting hit good now. There have been a bunch of close lightning strikes, something we don't often see from late-night MCSs. One strike knocked my power out for a second. The sirens are going off. -
2024 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion
hawkeye_wx replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
I just went out and put supports on a bunch of plants, getting drenched in the process (81º dew). I come inside and the radar shows this first severe line is going to miss north. -
2024 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion
hawkeye_wx replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
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2024 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion
hawkeye_wx replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch is likely later this afternoon for portions of Iowa into Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin in anticipation of convective initiation, forecast to occur between 19-21Z. Thunderstorms are expected to grow upscale quickly into a bowing line, which will be capable of 80+ MPH winds, though 1.00+ inch hail and embedded tornadoes are also possible. DISCUSSION...A subtle shortwave trough evident in both water vapor channel satellite imagery and RAP analyses is progressing eastward across southwest Minnesota. This shortwave is expected to provide additional ascent for convective initiation between 19-21Z over what is already a moist and unstable airmass, with widespread areas of MLCAPE > 3500 J/kg. This convective initiation is expected to occur anywhere from southern Minnesota, along the existing band of cloudiness, to central Iowa, where MLCINH has already eroded. Forecast profiles in north-central Iowa around the time of convective initiation show some slight curvature of the hodograph, resulting in modest 0-3km SRH of around 120 m^2/s^2. This will support the potential for tornadoes with any storms that remain isolated/discrete, but the overall expectation is for rapid upscale growth into a bowing MCS. The primary concern this evening is for damaging straight-line winds in excess of 80 MPH associated with this MCS, in addition to 1.00+ inch hail. Further east into Illinois, forecast hodographs show more favorable curvature and streamwise vorticity along and south of the surface boundary. Given the environment and expected storm mode, embedded QLCS tornadoes appear possible. -
2024 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion
hawkeye_wx replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
The morning storms over southern Minnesota pushed a boundary down into Iowa. The boundary stalled wnw-ese through the Cedar Rapids area. 80º dews are piling up along the boundary this afternoon and there is a fair amount of agitation on satellite. -
2024 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion
hawkeye_wx replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
For my area, it will depend on how soon the storms can fire. The latest HRRR doesn't show much firing until after it is east and south of Cedar Rapids. -
0.40" here overnight.