hawkeye_wx

The GFS shows no less than six fronts moving through over the next sixteen days. ZERO rain from any of them. This is crazy. Two months with no rain.

Well, it appears we won't know Oscar's exact strength because recon is done and there is not another one on the way. The eye will likely move into Cuba without more recon data.

There is a recon plane out there, but for some reason it stopped flying through the center a few hours ago.

Pressure is down another 2 mb to 989 mb in the last hour. Hurricane Oscar 2:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 19Location: 21.4°N 70.6°WMoving: W at 12 mphMin pressure: 989 mbMax sustained: 80 mph Hurricane Oscar Special Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 200 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 This is a special advisory to update the initial and forecast intensity for Oscar and current watches and warnings. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission is currently flying through the system, and in their second southwest-to-northeast leg found 700 mb flight level winds of 76 kt, and a minimum central pressure of 989 mb. The plane also reported a very small 3 n mi wide eye. A dropsonde recently launched in the northern quadrant also had a 150 m boundary layer mean wind of 80 kt. A blend of these data supports upgrading Oscar to a hurricane this advisory with maximum sustained winds of 70 kt. The intensity forecast has been updated accordingly, and is substantially higher than the previous one. Due to this unexpected higher intensity, the government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands and Southeastern Bahamas. The government of Cuba has also issued a Hurricane Watch for the same area currently under a Tropical Storm Warning.

Wow! "Tiny" might not adequately describe Oscar's inner core. This may be a new record. Wilma's eye, and Milton's eye, shrunk down to 4 nm.

We have a hurricane, or close to it. Recon found 991 mb with a dropsonde and 73 kt flight level wind. Given the rotating hot towers in the tiny inner core, I figured it was way lower than the 1007 mb the NHC initiated it with.

Recon measured about 1003 mb in Nadine's center as it nears landfall in Belize.

Recon just took off from St. Croix and is headed into Oscar.

It's not often we see a system trying to build an eyewall before it's even designated a tropical cyclone.

The NHC slapping a 60% on this system only one hour ago is about as conservative as it gets. This appears to be a rapidly-organizing tropical storm.

The GFS is popping a brief TD or low-end TS in the nw Caribbean Saturday morning before it moves into Belize. The NHC has raised it to 40%.

I wonder if it will ever rain again.

The next six hours is when the Euro continues to insist Milton will make a left hook, moving almost straight north for a few hours. It'll be interesting to see if that is actually correct.

The latest center dropsonde shows the pressure is up to 914 mb.

924 mb, per the latest dropsonde.

The latest dropsonde is back down to 926 mb.

Latest radar

And now it's 911 mb. Such an extreme low pressure requires incredible inner core structure. Any disruption will send the pressure back up pretty quickly.

New dropsonde pressure is 908 mb.

The pressure is rising now (latest extrap pressure is 909 mb), and this is why. The inner eyewall is finally beginning to break up a bit.

901 mb and 902 mb per the latest dropsondes from the two planes that just went through the eye.

Recon is going to make one more pass before it has to fly home.

The CDO was still a hair ragged in the nw quadrant first thing this morning, but just over the last couple hours it has become significantly more circular and uniform.

The newest dropsonde says about 947 mb.

A few spots in northeast Iowa and also western Iowa have bottomed out in the low 30s this morning.