hawkeye_wx
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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx
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The CDO was still a hair ragged in the nw quadrant first thing this morning, but just over the last couple hours it has become significantly more circular and uniform.
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The newest dropsonde says about 947 mb.
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A few spots in northeast Iowa and also western Iowa have bottomed out in the low 30s this morning.
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The recon plane went in one more time and found 976 mb. The track of the center has been south of east during this plane's flight.
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Recon has found no pressure drop over the last 1 hr, 16 min..... still 977 mb. This plane is now done.
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Two separate dropsondes show a pressure drop of 1 mb in the last ten minutes, now 978 mb w/ 12 kt wind.
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New dropsonde says 979 mb w/ 13 kt wind.
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The newest dropsonde says 980 mb.
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We are only getting two passes from this recon plane. The next plane should be in there this evening.
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985 mb per recon dropsonde..... 3 mb drop between passes.
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The 12z gfs track is interesting. Initially, it is farther south, close to the Yucatan like the latest Euro. However, then it doesn't just turn northeast, but north-northeast, and ends up farther north than previous runs.
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The visible loop looks very good. A nice ring of bubbly convection continues to surround the center. The next recon is on its way and should be in the eye in a couple hours. We need a moderator to clean out some of the garbage posts polluting this topic this morning.
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The 06z Euro took a big jump south, shows Milton's center almost scraping the coast of the Yucatan.
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I'm simply referring to the structural change that leads to much of the precip shifting to the northern half of the circulation.
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All models show the south half of Milton clearing out as it approaches Florida.
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I use Tropical Tidbits for the hurricane models.
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The Canadian is, very oddly, two days slower than the other models. Throw it out.
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While this system is already looking good, with persistent deep convection near the center, models really start to blow it up Sunday morning as it begins its eastward track.
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As of now, the first recon flight is not scheduled until 12z Sunday.
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Yeah, this system has come together more quickly than models and the NHC suggested/expected. It appears to already be a TD with a well-defined surface circulation and central convection.
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Now that this is an invest, the hurricane models are running. The HWRF, HMON, and HAFS-A are bombing it out pretty quickly, but are also suggesting possible rapid weakening upon approach to Florida as the structure deteriorates. The HAFS-B, oddly, struggles to ever strengthen it much.
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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
hawkeye_wx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
The ICON is also becoming more bullish in the gulf over the last few runs. -
It appeared Cedar Rapids was a lock to reach at least second place on the longest precip-less-stretch-on-record list. However, tonight's showers and storms popped just a hair farther north than models suggested and the Cedar Rapids airport picked up 0.05".
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The extreme dryness is putting stress on trees. I'm seeing a lot of leaf drop around town. The city planted a bunch of new trees last year along a nearby road. Some of them are not looking good because they never get water. The city has been planting a lot of new trees along roads across the city because of the 2020 derecho. Unfortunately, a not-insignificant percentage of these trees end up dying because we keep getting bad drought every year and rain is the only way these trees get watered.
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Cedar Rapids finished September with 0.00" of rain. At my house I got 0.11".
