hawkeye_wx

The big change to a much more active pattern is going to result in exactly one snow event for my area. It was a pretty decent one (7"), but it appears that is all we are going to get out of this pattern.

I was right to never really expect anything this weekend. The bullish models always looked dubious. We got nothing from the Friday WAA snow band and then we got only a dusting this morning. Honestly, though, I'm not complaining because I'm still dealing with a cold and being outside to clean a couple mornings ago did not help one bit.

The WAA band was a total dud in Cedar Rapids. It produced flurries and gusty wind.

The HRRR would be nice, but it's difficult to buy it when other models (Euro) show nothing in Iowa.

Most models have trended north with the Friday snow in Iowa. We may only get a very brief line of snow showers.

I'm expecting to get 1-3" from the WAA snow Friday. The main low is still a mystery, so I'm not really expecting anything.

I'm going with a total of 7".

The setup is almost good. It kinda looks like all the heavy convection down south is preventing deeper moisture from getting into the cold sector.

I have not been out to measure, but the snow is now over the edge of the patio bird bath and the rain gauge stand, which suggests about 4". There are reports of 5-6" in the Cedar Rapids area as well. We are currently getting our heaviest snow of the event.

4-6" has fallen in a band from south of Des Moines through Iowa City, to east of Cedar Rapids. I think I probably have about 2".

18z Euro

Most models are fairly consistent with the snow band through Iowa. 4-6" looks reasonable here. The drying out from Missouri through Illinois is pretty brutal.

Models seem to be keeping the solid swath through Iowa, but drying it out to the south where it was supposed to be heavier. I was excited for this, but I caught an illness yesterday and I feel like crap today. The last thing I'd want to do now is go out into the cold to shovel/blow, or even measure.

Oof.... the GFS actually sagged back south. It looks nothing like some of the other models.

The timing of this system is just about perfect. It should snow all day Wednesday across Iowa.