mahantango#1

Looks like a short window of precip.

The American Storm @BigJoeBastardi · 9h gfs around state college goes from 40 inches on its 18z run to around 6 at 00z over nest 15 days. what a piece of garbage this model has been this winter

21 this morning , got down to 18 here overnight.

Down to 22 here.

So we talking a sleet fest tomorrow?

The temp went up to 39 overnight, now it went back down. And that wind awhile ago was gusty. I had a gust to 37.

Maybe it will reappear.

Whats the feelings on tomorrows mess? Will there be a little more snow or more sleet and freezing rain?

About half inch of sleet here with freezing rain now. temp 31

Even though the last few days got up to the mid to upper 40's. Last evening close to 5:30 my temp was 36 and the ground was already starting to refreeze. So at least here that ground is still very cold. Got down to 23 overnight here, but was rising overnight till this morning.

Wxrisk.com nrdepStoos0859th19g4u372u601i02gu55hlaa9a6cu0fi1cc72c4fchic0 · WATCH OUT FOR FEB 11-12 in the Ohio valley/ Middle Atlantic/ southern New England

I think you just called it!

By Wednesday evening, broad southeast flow in the wake of retreating high pressure will keep cold air locked in east of the mountains as a warm nose of overrunning precipitation overspreads the region. The aforementioned band of snow will gradually lift northeast ahead of a broad area of low pressure moving in from the Ohio Valley with a transition to sleet and eventually freezing rain during the overnight hours. Model soundings have indicated that the layer of cold air at the surface could be a little bit deeper than previous runs, indicating potential for a longer period of sleet overnight before an inevitable transition to freezing rain. QPF amounts are generally 0.25-0.5" along and north of I-80, >0.75" in the Laurels, and 0.5-0.75" east of I-99 and south of I-80. Temperatures are progged to rebound considerably Thursday afternoon, though temperatures soaring into the 50s appears less and less likely as the event draws closer. It is difficult to scour out the cold air after these events, so trending below guidance seems prudent. Even still, highs in the 40s areawide should help most, if not all, of the ice melt during the afternoon and evening before cooler air filters in from the north as another cold front moves in. -- End Changed Discussion --

Bring it on and hope they cripple the region with heavy wet snow.

This is a different kind of winter as compared to maybe the previous 5 . It wouldn't take much to make this an epic 2nd half of winter. A good snowstorm, a good icestorm and near record cold.

✳️ALERT ✳️ 2nd HALF OF WINTER LOOKING SERIOUS ...POSSIBLY SEVERE ... ➡️ Do NOT be fooled by this mild across much of the eastern CONUS FEB 3-9 ⬅️ MORE DETAILS IN THE NEW EDITION OF THE NEXT 3 WEEKS NEWSLETTER ON MONDAY There is no doubt now that the PV - Polar Vortex IS going to undergo a significant stretching and potentially SPLIT into 2 sections. Some of the models split the PV into two distinct centers while others elongated the PV and then bring it back into an oval or elliptical shape (as opposed to a tight closed Circular PV) by the end of February. In either case it represents a significant change so AFTER THIS WEEK FEB 3 -9 of Spring like conditions in the eastern US, there is no doubt in my mind that the winter is going to come roaring back sometime after February 9/10. Indeed the last two runs of the operational European are picking up on two different threats in the Middle Atlantic and Ohio valley. First it is Rain changing to snow behind the strong cold front on February 9/10 in MD DEL most of VA eastern KY and eastern WV. This is followed by a potentially major Ohio Valley /Mid-Atlantic snowstorm on February 11- 12. Interestingly this event has shown up now in the last three runs of the operational European. The change is driven that the -EPO (aka the ALASKAN BLOCK ) that which is currently in the western Alaska. As the PV begins to split... the BLOCK/ -EPO shifts eastward so that it builds into NW Canada by next weekend. At the same time the North Atlantic Ridge over Great Britain builds West into Iceland and Greenland by day 10 resulting in a very strong -NAO/ - AO combination or couplet. (East Coast snow lovers rejoice) These two changes force a steady shift of the strong Ridge in the eastern US into the western Atlantic by February 14. But even more impressive is the fact that there is quite a bit of model data that suggests the Alaskan nw t Canada BLOCK/ -EPO is going to build into the Arctic region at the same time the Greenland Ridge - NAO intensifies and expands. This creates what is known as LINKAGE and it would force the entire PV far to the south that possibly as south as James Bay Canada.! Brrrrrr This would trigger another prolonged and significant Arctic air mass outbreak much like we saw in January developing across the central and eastern CONUS mainly north of Interstate 40 by the middle of February.

Phil says 6 more weeks of winter! Happy Groundhog Day!!

.24 rain yesterday. 33 with wind starting this morning.

Thanks! I know of a good friend got diagnosed with covid 23 days ago and now this week she has been diagnosed with the flu. She commented she can't win.

Yes we are but slowly. I endured multiple nights of fever ranging from 101-103.7. Wife had to get x ray of chest yesterday now she has Pneumonia. Dr. prescribed antibiotics for this yesterday. This was a nasty one this year.