mahantango#1

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 233 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025 PAZ005-006-010>012-019-026>028-035>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066-152245- /O.NEW.KCTP.HW.A.0001.250216T1700Z-250217T1700Z/ McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Southern Centre- Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder- Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon- Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of York, Williamsport, Lancaster, Mansfield, Carlisle, Wellsboro, McConnellsburg, Gettysburg, Laporte, Sunbury, Renovo, Shamokin, St. Marys, State College, Bloomsburg, Ridgway, Berwick, Mount Union, Emporium, Lebanon, Hershey, Selinsgrove, Newport, Harrisburg, Huntingdon, Coudersport, Bradford, Lewisburg, Pottsville, Trout Run, Mifflintown, Lock Haven, Chambersburg, Danville, and Lewistown 233 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 50 to 60 mph possible. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest wind gusts will occur just behind the cold front on Sunday afternoon, but gusty winds will continue into Monday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Do not touch downed lines and report any power outages to your electric company. Travel is highly discouraged due to slick roadways and the possibility of downed trees and power lines.

Wxrisk.com drtenoSspoi5m9a0g0hg08mfh9011hc0f8g87h574107h1m2lg1u55t5gt86 · Expect additional shorter weather videos Sunday Monday Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of this next potential significant snow storm. Tomorrow I hope to present the full review of the previous event on February 11. Again I'm getting the occasional request Asking where the donation button is but I can no longer do that because of the tax code. But you can send Starbucks gift cards if you are so inclined to this email [email protected]

I see a high wind watch has been issued.

28/18 here.

Maybe your call will stand.

That there could keep temps. from rising too fast.

So maybe tomorrow could be trending colder and keeping wintery precipitation a little longer than originally thought. If that happens maybe Sunday won't get as warm as was forecasted.

MU has a special discussion on tomorrow's event. He says probably more snow and sleet will tend to keep temps lower on Saturday.

From JB talking about gfs: give it credit. It looks like its hitting the warm advection snow tomorrow. I am still wondering if that low will wind up south of New england to hold the cold air into the interior northeast meaning one heck of a snow/ice event from NYC ( a few inches of snow then sleet and freezing rain, not rain and 50) to BOS

He probably can't hold a laptop while trying to hold on to that greased light pole. So his responses will be limited today.

Should there be any concern with the amount of precipitation and frozen ground and runoff that could lead to ice breaking up on smaller streams and possibly leading up to ice jams?

Wow!

23 here.

Wxrisk.com notpdsoeSri68209l97u1622auf1g4f3352h03i6t2au6022m6m4hahf6401 · WOW-- 0z FRI EURO Crushes entire I-95 corridor with Historic Snowstorm FEB 19-20. ; From RAL to BOS 1-2 feet To understand why this is happening and WHY it is LIKELY to happen you need to watch the weather video which I produced and posted on early Thursday evening. Keep in mind that I've been talking about this serious threat around the 18th to the 20th of February since JAN 27. WXRISK blue sky AND over on Twitter wxiskgrain page I made a very lengthy post about this developing threat Back on on FEB 11 . Those of you who are long-time followers of WxRisk know that I have always maintained that the huge really big East Coast snowstorms like the one we saw in December 2018 and n January 2016 (among others ) you can ALWAYS see coming 7 days out. With the big ones the upper air patterns are that predictable. For what it is worth the British model is showing almost The Identical outcome in every possible way as the European model which is always a good sign in terms of forecasting confidence and reliability. Also the operational GFS is also showing a major snowstorm from Western and Central North Carolina up into Boston New York and Southern New England. but again as I explained in the weather I do NOT use the GFS model as my primary forecast model for East Coast winter storms until we get within 84 hrs. I posted some additional maps over on the wxrisk blue sky social.

Knowing our luck lately, your probably spot on .

I hope there will be a surprise from this weekend system that the models aren't picking up on yet.

Every time we look at model runs the day before a snow event...the NWS comes along an ruins the party. This seems to be true this month.

My NWS forecast has less than an inch of snow here.

Snow stopped for quite awhile, now it started again. Snowing the hardest it has so far today.

Nws discussion says they are uncertain about this weekend: LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... By the weekend, another storm will approach the northeast, though considerable uncertainty remains. An initial burst of snow appears likely on Saturday as a weak disturbance moves through ahead of the main system. The latest EPS mean surface low track across Southeast PA, along with lack of a blocking high to the northeast, would point to a mostly rain event. However, there remains plenty of uncertainty and a slight southward shift could result in significant snow for parts of the area. It is worth noting that the deterministic guidance has shifted slightly southward today and indicated the potential for snow across the northern tier of Central PA. Although the specifics of the weekend storm remain uncertain, there is greater certainty in blustery and cold conditions arriving late Sunday into Monday, as the strengthening surface low passes east of PA. Mean EPS 2m temps currently support temps falling into the single digits Sunday night over the NW Mtns, along with wind chills well below zero.

This winter is complexly different then the last few. Last year at this time (if my memory is correct) The tulips were were up about 2 inches out of the ground. Not this year there is no sign of them with that inch of sleet that turned in to an ice pack on frozen ground.

Less than half-inch of snow here form the event.