mahantango#1

Its a mess here that inch of snow yesterday then the rain the ground was starting to get above freezing then it froze overnight now its melting from the top down but ground is still below freezing. Making for a slushy mess thats adhering to the ground with water standing on top. Hope it melts before tonight or it will freeze to a thin layer of ice.

If we don't have a winter storm to get excited about right now. We have this high wind warning to replace that storm. If it gets bad (power companies cold be overwhelmed) some people could be without power for more than 24 hours. Being without power with those winds and cold temps won't be pleasant.

That must have been bad on Peters Mountain this morning State Police were there like rescuing people that were stranded. Peters mountain as I keep saying is a dividing line on the weather between the Lower Susquehanna and the Middle Susquehanna.

Why?

It was announced on abc27 this morning. Do not go over Peters Mountain if you don't have too. It is a solid sheet of slush and ice. I am currently stranded at the top and cars are stuck everywhere. It is 618 Sunday morning

There were some brutal winters in the mid late 70's. I experienced them. In January 1977 the ground was froze 2feet down.

Years ago for many years we could count on one big storm for every winter. And that consisted of a storm that produced at least 8 inches. But that don't seem like it happens much anymore.

Every forecaster has their own way of interpretation of the models. But we need this storm to make it a complete witer.

So much to be determined yet.wish we had a clear consensus on the outcome now. That way we can either stick a fork in it or get and extra 5 gallons of gas for the snowblower. Time will tell, we still have a few days to get a clearer picture.

Wxrisk.com · Because of the importance and size of the snowstorm FEB `19-20 I have decided to do a video update this evening. Briefly the 12Z European and the GFS models are moving to closer agreement. They take the LOW further east as opposed to NE which means much less sleet and freezing rain in Richmond Central Virginia and even now accumulating snow into Southeast Virginia and Hampton Roads. The early Saturday morning models ( 0z and 6z) European model as well as the Canadian the GFS and the British models had the surface LOW tracking a little further to the north which pushed the sleet and freezing rain mixture deeper into Central Virginia into the Delmarva and Southern New Jersey and had essentially all rain in Hampton roads. The new data however is says no thats not correct. There is a new piece of energy which comes in from the West Coast that forces the big winter storm LOW w pressure area in the Midwest and the Deep South to track east -- NOT NE -- which means it stays colder in all of Virginia Maryland Delaware with impressive if not huge amounts of snow. Now that doesn't mean this new solution here at midday on the European British model and the GFS and the Canadian (which are all colder and snowier) for all portions of Virginia Maryland and Delaware… will end up being the correct solution. That has yet to be determined. but for those who really like big snow --more important is that the Ensemble data is also taking the system further east so the LOW pressure area does not move into Southeast Virginia but instead tracks along the Carolina coast to Cape Hatteras and then off the coast. This is NOT great news for areas north of Philadelphia but it's fabulous news for snow lovers in Maryland Delaware Southern New Jersey Virginia and Western and central North Carolina

Temp 31.8 and basically rain here. 1in. of snow fell.

Looks like small sleet here with an occasional drop of rain. Temp 30.6

Just a little less than half inch of snow has fallen. currently very light snow here, seem to be missing the bulk of it.

Thats a good indication in about an hour and half that I'll changeover here too.

Hope you get a foot of the snow.

Wasn't the Canadian right a number of weeks ago when other models didn't show basically anything?

Light snow falling here.

31.5/20.7

Seeing first flakes here.

Yesterday I walked down to my mailbox to check to see if I got mail. On the way back I decided to cut through the yard. There was grass showing through the ice in the yard. I thought by walking on that ice on the grass I would break through the ice. Man was I wrong. I took a tumble. Now I hurt both wrists trying to break my fall. I landed on my one wrist that I broke about 29 years ago. The one I broke my vickular bone. The one I had a cast on for about 5 months. Its a little swollen and weak now. I don't think it's broken, I think it's sprained. I learned a lesson of don't walk on ice no matter if you think it's not that thick. The other hand I really stubbed my pinky finger. Hopefully my injuries get better.

Wondering if this snow were supposed to get will turn to rain sooner than expected since the temp. seems to be rising fairly rapidly.

The American Storm @BigJoeBastardi · 3h Euro and Canadian in support of analogs we showed on Feb 11 that lead to the blizzard of 25 on the East Coast AI still way out at sea

Wxrisk.com poroesdnSti91lhu6g33gc1mug7548h828clah0mc51ht4407f1t1c7132h0 · UPDATE FRIDAY PM MAJOR EAST COAST SNOWSTORM THREAT FEB 19-20 12Z FRI EURO HELD COURSE the wretched GFS wobble and came up with NEW totally different inconsistent solution. This is why the GFS is not my primary model of preference for east coast Winters winter storms in the 84-192 hr time frame