mahantango#1

I'm right on the border of th screw zone.

At least most of us got a Winter Storm Watch.

I'm presuming if we get a good snow accumulation, will we need to be concerned about drifting?

When do you think we will get a consensus on the final track and amounts, would it be tomorrow afternoon some time? Probably it will change several more times till Sunday. Hopefully it's not a big letdown in the end.

Even DT's first guess map shows more than a brooming for you.

I'm sure the NWS will crush that theory... as they always do.

Is Marysville in a drought? Hard to tell on the map viewing from a phone. Asking for a friend

My low was 9.7

My NWS forecast for Sunday and Sunday night has no mention of snow. Sunday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. M.L.King Day Mostly sunny, with a high near 18.

And January is half over already, and still no big storm for most of us this winter.

DT Video https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sHhXc2SaarA

That's almost 10 degree difference.

My coal usage so far this month is 8.33% higher than compared to the same time period of January 2024. It has been a cold month so far.

Low was 14

Write Sign up Sign in Wxrisk · Follow 3 min read · 7 hours ago 2 AN EARLY LOOK AT JAN 19–20…. Here I am going to briefly take a look at the promising January 19- 20 snowstorm /event since it is only 5 days away. Now I know what some of you will say — it is too early. The people who say that generally are not meteorologists. Remember the purpose of issuing the weather forecast is to get the information out to people businesses organizations that need it BEFORE the event begins Yes there is ANOTHER potentially another more significant system coming JAN 22–23 but lets just deal with this first one. THE SEQUENCE OF EVENTS 1 . The Arctic cold front that develops in the Midwest as Polar Jet and the southern (subtropical) jet stream phase and create gargantuan Trough in the Midwest that will pull down the Arctic air. The precipitation with this front will be primarily rain from Alabama to Virginia and up the I-95 corridor Saturday afternoon /evening. The rain will turn to snow in the mountains of Pennsylvania/ upstate and western New York/ and northern New England late Saturday. 2. The southern end of the cold front is going to stall and LOW pressure is going to form on the front on Sunday January 19. The LOW will intensify as it tracks in a NE direction. According to the latest data the Arctic air will reach into northern and western North Carolina/ most of Virginia (except for Hampton Roads) / central and eastern Maryland and Delaware before the main precipitation begins with the coastal storm. 3. This will result in at least a few inches of snow -possibly several. the snow band will extend into Delaware New Jersey and probably into NYC and southeast New England from Sunday evening into Monday morning. 4. This is going to be a fast moving event and much will depend on how close the LOW tracks to the coast once it leaves coastal North Carolina. IF the coastal LOW tracks ina ENE diection the heaviest snows will probably bypass Philly /NJ /and NYC. But if the LOW track MORE ne than these areas could see a accumulating snowfall on Sunday night. 5. Timing is everything here. Right now most of the model data has the cold air getting into the Middle Atlantic region Sunday morning and midday several hours before the coastal LOW begins to spread its precipitation into the Middle Atlantic region. But this is a variable: any delay of the arrival of the cold front even by 6 hours will make a huge difference with respect to where the snow is going to fall. 6. The model data as you can see here shows that the temperatures at 850mb (1 mile above the ground) will be cold enough to support all snow as far south Petersburg and near the North Carolina Virginia border -but not in Hampton Roads. The thick BLACK LINE that I have drawn in on these upper air Maps show the rain snow line — any precip falling north of the black line as snow. 7. Behind the system howling North winds will bring in even more Arctic air on Monday January 20. In fact Max temperature is my only go up 5° or so across the entire Middle Atlantic/ Ohio Valley /and New England regions on January 20. If there is snow on the ground in Virginia /Maryland/ Delaware /West Virginia/ northern North Carolina readings could drop below zero on either the morning of the 21st or the 22nd

You can't shovel potential.

I had a -30 on one of those days.

We need the big one! The one where everyone stays home for 2 days at least.

Mine says rain too

From DT: WHATS NEXT ? 1 NAP TIME! 2 WILL DO FULL REVIEW OF THE FORECAST VS VERIFICATION THIS EVENING. 3. ABOUT JAN 20 as I said last week in the NEXT 3 WEEKS NEWSLETTER .... several global Models ARE showing significant winter storm THREAT. That is also the case this morning and at midday. Now with this previous event that just ended was something that WxRisk detected in the last few days of December --- 14 days ago. About 7 days ago one of the models had developed the last nights snow system into a huge East Coast blizzard -- the GFS model. That solution turned out to be completely wrong and the GFS quickly corrected. For the past 7 days MOST of the global models showed a Tennessee Valley southern half Middle Atlantic moderate size winter storm which is exactly right. With regard to JAN 20 at this point ALLLL of the global models -not just one are showing SOME kind of winter event around January 19--21. I will go into this in greater detail with the next edition of THE NEXT 3 WEEKS NEWSLETTER that will come out either Sunday night or Monday morning. For those of you that do not know the NEXT 3 WEEKS NEWSLETTER is a subscription-based newsletter which you purchase on the website for $5 a month. You can sign up for multiple months. Not only is it good for tracking with the winter storms as well as mild winter intervals, but it is also good for planning your outdoor events once we move into the spring summer and autumn season -- the hurricane season severe weather threats or just going to the beach, hiking, weddings, graduations or what have you

Took some pics this morning.

Will there be a risk of snow squalls this coming week with the arrival of colder air?

My NWS forecast less than an inch of snow. Reality 1.75 fell.