mahantango#1

The ice just broke loose on the Mahantango Creek have 1 66 rain so far.

I have plenty of room here

Yes don't know what to expect tomorrow morning wind is still out of the south here.

Temp is falling 35 now after a high of 40

Rain so far .92

My high temp is supposed to be 40 today. A few days ago it was supposed to be 46. So a definite downward trend in temps. Currently 34. I wonder if we will be headed to ice sooner then the NWS says we will.

Typical for them. I wonder if their office has the least warnings and advisory issued.

What are your thoughts above the Mason Dixon line or should I say north of Harrisburg,pa?

Thoughts from DT: The operational GFS model for the past few days has been trying to drive the cold front rapidly through New England, into the northern half of the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday, and into New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, northern Virginia, West Virginia, on Friday. The result would be rain changing to heavy snow and ice in much of Pennsylvania, New York State, and New England (which seems like a good probability). Undoubtedly, even coastal New England is going to see significant ice as well as New York City, New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania Thursday night into Friday morning. And because the GFS model is so aggressive with the cold air it actually allows the rain change to sleet and freezing rain in most of Maryland. the Eastern portions of West Virginia and the northern half of Virginia during the day on Friday February 4. If that were to happen then they would be a tremendous ice storm in Southern New England most of Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, NYC, and Southeast New York. the ice would change to snow and there would be significant ice buildup and snow accumulations on top of the ice in the northern half of New England most of New York State and Northwest Pennsylvania would see all snow. Indeed, this is exactly what the operational GFS model has been showing for the past few days. But there is a problem with this particular kind of scenario. It has to do with the development of waves of LOW pressure tracking along the front in a SW to NE direction — from Arkansas to Tennessee to Virginia to the Delmarva on Thursday and Friday. As a general rule, when LOW pressure tracking along of front in SW to NE direction, it is hard to get the cold air that is located Northeast of the surface LOW pressure to advance the Southward. You have to wait until the LOW pressure area is clear as the region. Only then will the cold front sweeps in, temperatures will drop and the precipitation comes to an end

Went to Sunbury, pa. Today. While in Sunbury by the river around 11 this morning the temp on my car was 22 I got out of Sunbury about a mile and a half on top of a hill on rt 147 the temp went to 28. It amazement me the temp difference location to location. And I know that ground must be really cold that's its limiting the melting during the day.

Hit 40 today now that sun went down 28. Seems very little melting with that ice pack we have.

I didn't see any yet from him. But your right those start times are critical!

So will there be freezing rain from this. Or just rain an maybe a coating of snow

DT says the gfs is wrong. He Says with the 2nd low moving sw to ne the south winds won't let the artic front push south

Is that when I-78 was shutdown?

Watching the weather on tv and read NWS forecast lows for last night said it wouldn't nearly as cold last night as Sunday night. It is 6 right now and yesterday morn it was 4 so 2 degrees is not nearly as cold.

well MAYBE just Maybe this one will score the coup. It has to be right sometime. Even a broken clock is right 2x a day.

4 this morning.

My click an point forecast keep dropping Temps Wednesday thru Friday. And it says rain Thursday night with a low of 28.

I guess we will stir-up a hornets nest within the forum on wanting warmer weather. I'm with you on seasonable cold but not this 10-20 below normal stuff. I like some snow too but these minor events and frigid conditions that seem to last a long time, not so much.

2 this morning. I guess we'll see what the late week storm system has in store for us.

Can't wait! Tired of this seemingly relentless cold.

It's not that. It the rain then freezing rain, and topped of with 6 in. Of snow. That has not happened here in the Susquehanna Valley for a long time

It's been quite a long, long time since this senerio happened here in the Susquehanna Valley

Or maybe empty cans of