mahantango#1

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

They dropped most of the Harrisburg area & surrounding LSV from 6 -10 to 3-6, do that is a healthy drop.

But the upper end of Dauphin county (where I live) and west of the river they didn't lower them. It doesn't jive with NWS point and click forecast WHTM is double the amounts of NWS.

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

 

Maybe DT is a consultant for WHTM.

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I was just thinking in general about our rare “great” coastal storms. By the time the storm approaches our latitude, we usually already have a really good amount of snow on the ground. There is usually a lot of precip well out ahead of the low as it gains latitude up from the gulf states.

My point is that we can score decent snow with this storm by the time the low reaches southern VA or the DelMarVa, even if it then goes downhill after that for us.

 

WHTM 27 has not really wavered on amounts.

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Which model has been rock solid with this event?  The GFS probably the best in sniffing out the capture and then the Nam suggesting the risk of warm intrusion.  I can't say if the HRRR version could happen but the Western wave has been staying legit longer and longer in the other suites. So just trend watching.   Plus, does it hurt showing something good?  Glass half full. 

Maybe Dt was on to something with that map.

Something tells me there will be problems even though it rains with temps. that are supposed to go into the mid 30s during the overnight that cold frozen ground will be a factor. Didn't we just experience that last weekend? NWS had to issue a Ice Storm Warning at when the precipitation was falling. I know up in this part of the state we did. I was stuck at 31 for hours when the models said I should have been in the mid 30s. I know this is a different situation then last week but the possibility could exist.

Let's see what tomorrow mornings model runs look like as we get a little closer to that event. 

If this would stay all snow and those forecasted winds materialize There will be a lot of drifting an possible road closures. Key word if.

2 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

i didn't see what they had said?

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 6z GFS still looks good for most from around I-81 north & west.

You think those totals in the central and western part of the state will eventually be expanded east 30 miles?

Whtm-27 has not changed their snow map from last night. S I guess they feel pretty confident.

6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Lol, so when @sauss06 & I cross the bridge to Harrisburg just a few minutes away, we don’t need to “Watch” for snow.

I’m sure the Watch will be extended at some point, but it is just LOL how whoever issued this county list has no clue on how the Harrisburg metro area works.

what you said reminds me of this commercial 

5 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The major ALEET is here from DT tonight!

 

Does anyone think this map has any merit?

DT will have his first guess map out @1100pm

5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I like this map.

Very bold for them 3 to 4 days out.

Usually they downplay it. I thought they would be cautious especially after just a few years ago when they had a accumulation map out with some that were over a foot. And if I remember correctly we ended up in the 2-3 inch range.

ABC WHTM has a snow map out already. 

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

The man, the legend.  He was part of our original group and was not "too bad" at that time.  Rough around the edges.  He lost it when he was attacked by a troll named Joe Bartlo and it seemed to flip him over to who he is now. 

I don't think he's a bad forecaster. But he can be nasty at times with people, but sometimes I think some people just like to provoke the bear.

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

His top analog is March 2nd to 4th of 1994.

That was a major interior snow storm especially towards true central PA.

16 year old Blizz got 12 inches of snow & sleet mix in Harrisburg. It was the heaviest & longest duration sleet that I experienced until February Valentine’s storm of 2007.

So someone else must have watched his video and read his blog.

There lets bring DT to the house. 

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

DT in the house!? 

Seem to me after all the confusing model runs DT has been bewildered somewhat. So he's not predicting where this will go.

I know there are not many JB fans on here. But he referenced yesterday, last evening that the storm will run from eastern NC., to Millville NJ to JFK.

37 for the high here.

54 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Between Noon on Sunday and Midnight Sunday night.  It varies on different models.  Most models are after dark Sunday evening. 

Thanks!

What time frame are we looking at for precipitation to start in southern Pa. if there is a storm.