mahantango#1

32 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

This is from my weather notebook:

I measured 8.8" just south of Mountville here in Lancaster county. Rain began on Monday night, April 5th with temps in the low 40s and by daybreak on the 6th I had heavy snow and very strong winds which created true blizzard conditions. The 8.8" of snow fell in a 7 hour period as temps crashed into the mid 20s. We missed 2 full days of school and had a  2 hour delay on the 3rd day after the event. Winds were measured at over 50 mph in the county. Dad said we never had anything like that before in April during his lifetime and that I would never see it again.

43 years later, he's still right. 

Here's the snow map. I was just inside the southern edge of the good stuff. Hard to believe based on this that you didn't do better. It wasn't an elevation dependent storm, temps were in the 20s throughout the snow portion. 

Thats what I remember about the storm I don't remember and issues at my place from the storm. Maybe we had a half inch or so from it. the further east/ northeast (and the increase in elevation) there was more snow. And we were traveling to Gratz so my grandfather could purchase a wringer washer. And I still have that wringer washer. But hasn't been used in decades. And if i'm right that was the last year of they made them.

2 minutes ago, Voyager said:

19.6 here. Funny how 20 with no wind doesn't feel all that cold.

20 is the new 40 after all the ridiculous cold that was bestowed upon us weeks ago. 

11 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

April 1982 was an incredible storm. Nothing in my 60 years on earth is even close I'm that month. 

I remember April 1982. I had barely any snow here (being I live down in the valley) elevation 460. I remember going through a little town of Hebe, Pa. elevation 661ft. and there was about 6 inch of snow, there were plows out plowing.

15 hours ago, Voyager said:

Thanks for posting this. I know I'm in the minority, and sometimes I can be overbearing, but I really needed a spirit pick me up. I've been about as depressed as I've ever been this winter.

18 this morning.

32 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Lol, just what they needed…

Were the emergency snow shoveler's activated?

Cooper and his grandmother are thinking ahead — way ahead — and preparing for a special snowball fight in July.

https://www.wgal.com/article/boy-keeping-snowballs-in-freezer-for-july/70468549

12 hours ago, Voyager said:

I don't have any hurrahs left in me... 

10 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

The median snow for Harrisburg after a February storm like the one the other day this late in February here is the past outcomes

25th 0.48
Median 2.66"
75th 6.28"

So likely all we get rest of season is a 1"-3"/3"-6"

She's just about done.

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Thyere's always hope.

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Wont be as fun this time but man would it be nice to wrap up with a doozy. 

Yes, one last hurrah!

2 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

A post about increasing sun angle and how it affects rates needed to accumulate on asphalt.

It truly brings home the point that the 1993 storm was in its own league beyond even what we informed people think. It needed to overcome 2.3x more solar radiation than mid January and 1.5x more than mid February.

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I remember how bad the roads were several days after the storm. It was like driving over a washboard.

2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Interesting going back to the threads from 2010-11, a lot of forgotten names along with a lot of us still here. It didn't take me long to find a Canderson post about winds.  

And March is on our doorstep, you'll be hearing more from him regarding wind.

Beautiful landscape this morning. depends where I measure 3-4 inches at places. On my stone gravel lane 1.5-2 inches fell overnight. Trees are caked with snow.

33 and very wet snow started about 10 min ago.

13 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

18z High res short range Canadian HRDPS has the inverted trough band right in the west shore of Harrisburg really close to RT. 15

It shows 5 inches for Harrisburg by tomorrow morning.

And of course looks like I'll miss it by about 15 miles or so.

Temp dropped almost 2 degrees the past hour. Down to 35.2 now just waiting on the rain  to change to snow. .23 precipitation today. Most of that was 97% rain.

27 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I've been a pessimistic regarding this storm, but I have to say it's far far too early to say anything. 7pm was the earliest time I could pin point to tell. Especially regarding what I thought was our best shot, the inverted trough

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Took notice that NWS didn't alter their Winter Storm Warnings as of 11 am update. So they must feel somewhat confident on their forecasts 

I know it's far from over. But might as well stick this in here. Maybe the storm will surprise some of us.

Even CBS21 say the Susquehanna Valley might only end up with 2-3 inches. https://www.facebook.com/cbs21news/videos/1288428943103685

In the last 15 min. the snow turned to rain here.33.4 temp. and a 33 dp.

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Heavy snowfall is expected today into Monday
over practically all of the Southeast half of Pennsylvania.

Confidence continues to increase in an area of low pressure
rapidly developing off the east coast today as a very dynamic upper
trough digs southeast from the Great Lakes region and amplifies
across the Central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic Coast. The
latest 00z Sunday guidance continues to come into good agreement
on the position and strength of the coastal low as it
strengthens/bombs out as its heads from the Outer Banks late
this morning NNE to about 125NM east of KSBY this evening.

GEFS Ensemble Plumes and their respective anomalies of various
parameters show a well-defined inverted trough over Central PA
today, extending NWWD from the aforementieond coastal low.

This trough is at the western edge of a highly anomalous East
to NErly LLJ (falling into the minus 4-5 sigma u-component of
the wind at 925 and 850 mb). Increasing upper level diffluence
ahead of the digging upper trough will support gradual
enhancement of snowfall rates across all of Central PA today
with snowfall rates within these quasi north/south bands of snow
exceeding 1 inch per hour (possibly over 2 inches at times in
heavy CSI bands across our far eastern CWA.

A complicating feature that will enhance and extend significant
impacts from this storm will be the increasingly strong NNE to
NNW wind - that will gust over 30 mph tonight (and likely over
40 mph) on Monday. This will lead to significant/extensive
blowing and drifting snow with localized near whiteout
conditions possible.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A high degree of uncertainty remains with
expected snowfall over the rest of northern PA.

Significant uncertainty still remains regarding snowfall over
the rest of North-Central, NW PA and the Middle Susq Valley
considering the likelihood for a quasi-stationary nearly
north/south band of heavy snow (lasting several hours or more)
along the axis of an inverted llvl trough and leading edge of
the lower/deeper DGZ that will be situated from the Scent Mtns
to somewhere between KUNV/KSEG and KIPT later Sunday
afternoon/Sunday night.

A couple of things to keep in mind regarding this snowfall
forecast:
* As the low quickly deepens off the east coast, expect areas of
  enhanced low to mid level frontogenesis and UVVEL to develop
  in the western periphery of the system. Much of this banding
  will likely set up just  east of the CWA, but could still
  develop across parts of our central and eastern zones.
* Multiple models continue to show a snow band associated with
  an area of low level convergence within an inverted trough
  extending northwestward from the coastal low. While this type
  of band is more likely to set up somewhere in central PA, it
  will likely be narrow with a widely varying snowfall totals
  on either side of the band.

Heard the geese last night around 11pm sounds like they were headed north. So the signs of spring are starting to show.