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mahantango#1

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    Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    READ THIS AFTER YOU WATCH THE VIDEO
    The new 0z Sunday operationally European model is quite impressive. For the first time it not only develops a CLOSED UPPER LOW but it now forms a closed in southwest ILL , drops into the deep Longwave Trough on the East Coast Wednesday night. From there the closed 500 UPPER LOW deepens and drops SE into the Carolinas by Thursday night. If this solution is correct it matches the GFS solution in developing a significant Coastal storm Nor'easter along the Delmarva Coast with rain initially along the coastal areas and heavy snow in the Piedmont and Appalachian Mountains of the Middle Atlantic and the Ohio Valley .
    If we were to Take verbatim the 0z sunday European model run, the surface LOW Pounds the hell out of western NC/ far southeast KY/ southwest VA the entire Shenandoah Valley/ Western MDd and most of WV On Thursday and Thursday evening the coastal LOW intensifies and rain changes the snow in I-95 and coastal areas Thursday night . Snow continues through Friday dawn in the eastern half of VA/ c central and eastern MD/ and the Delmarva and possibly Hampton roads.
    The European model has a break in the snow shield from Baltimore to NYC while Southeast New England sees some moderate accumulating snow.
    As I mentioned in the video the key to the January 15 event is the formation of the closed UPPER LOW -- this feature HAS to drop into the Carolinas in order for there to be a significant Middle Atlantic winter storm.
    If that UPPER LOW never forms or let's say the orms over PA that would be great for NY state and New England but it would be complete Miss for a new the southern Middle Atlantic.
    614682255_1315645633927805_7494544696954916123_n.jpg?stp=dst-jpg_s590x590_tt6&_nc_cat=1&_nc_cb=99be929b-ad57045b&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=127cfc&_nc_ohc=u4ckyjOpvFwQ7kNvwHiAud7&_nc_oc=Adn9waPiNclsEqzXMT2DcP179qrbpEnG_Zssu7DotSp3Y4hdOV3D6usPXIbTuu6lA5M&_nc_zt=23&_nc_ht=scontent-iad3-1.xx&_nc_gid=jl6SvUPYCG1s8RvnNtBqCA&oh=00_AfoKHHo0hFe8vkD_QkdkrdsC8OtYndorELclezHVVR4Fcg&oe=696969A6614664660_1315645730594462_5065372112882903541_n.jpg?stp=dst-jpg_s590x590_tt6&_nc_cat=103&_nc_cb=99be929b-ad57045b&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=127cfc&_nc_ohc=ljhpoB3_S7wQ7kNvwFp3qQb&_nc_oc=Adl-czH9WnlmbxinQ_2QiGf6eCh_-dx5C7jgGqNCHazePVE70biumxJt0e6eyK8YyKs&_nc_zt=23&_nc_ht=scontent-iad3-2.xx&_nc_gid=jl6SvUPYCG1s8RvnNtBqCA&oh=00_AfqzFWAHfcJSTQeaSqm_6EHrXH6UwPIxdBSzg547tBPoMQ&oe=696968BB614572520_1315645780594457_6054988351120670175_n.jpg?stp=dst-jpg_s590x590_tt6&_nc_cat=102&_nc_cb=99be929b-ad57045b&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=127cfc&_nc_ohc=nrWq1J96PigQ7kNvwEv_6zO&_nc_oc=AdmgalguWjAxGcVNc2PSNY0-E-PVDo14o58LjUemGUcBftSH3gTHycI2MHWvQao7sQM&_nc_zt=23&_nc_ht=scontent-iad3-1.xx&_nc_gid=jl6SvUPYCG1s8RvnNtBqCA&oh=00_Afo3weefb7zcYKVeNOjS4JypbFr4C91YaNdD-IMabuEOOw&oe=69698140

    Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    DT: WILL DO A NEW SHORT VIDEO THIS EVENING ABOUT JAN 15-16.

     

    The last few runs on the operational GFS continued develop a huge snowstorm for the middle I thank New England coast. the model not me but the model is showing something like the January 2016 blizzard or Something like the 1909 or 1922 blizzards on the Mid-Atlantic coast. it's a very extreme solution. it's not out of the question but most of the data is against that kind of massive system.

     

     on the other hand the upper level energy on the 12z Saturday midday European model has taken a big step towards the GFS idea of a big Mid-Atlantic winter storm on January 15

    • Like 1

    Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    From DT: 

    ABOUT  JAN 15-16   only 6  days away ....  

    You undoubtedly will see some dumb weather weenie  trying to play Jim Cantore  OR some  meteorologist  on TV or social media attempt to tell you that this thing is a week away blah blah blah . That is  Bullshit 

    Remember folks the purpose of issuing  weather forecasts is to get the weather information out to people /businesses. organizations BEFORE  the event actually begins. 

    If the data is correct the event begins on January 15 which is 6 days away -do the math 

    Anybody telling you this is 7 or   8 days away is full of shit-  either they are  stupid  or too lazy to be bother so they  bullshitting you  hoping that  they dont have to work too hard.

    Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

    Add the MU warminsta to the group who is invested in next weekend's storm. Says the event centered around Thursday will just be a frontal passage, but he's going to be issuing a first look outlook for next weekend on Tuesday. For him to say that now, he's onboard. (not that we need that but if HE'S onboard, it's telling.) 

    DT is starting to get excited too. But I don't know if that includes Pennsylvania.

    Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

    1977-78. I had 71" that winter in Manor Township. That winter featured a true blizzard in late January that was the 3rd storm to hit in 7 days. My records (I was 13 at the time) was 11" on 1-13 followed by 7" on 1/16 and then the blizzard dropped 18" on 1/20. My notes indicate that we had a drift measuring nearly 10' high in our driveway the morning of 1/21 and had to have the township's V-plow dig us out. 

    Edit: I compiled those notes with the help of my late father - they should be pretty darn accurate, or at least as accurate as 13 year old weather freak could be. :)  

    Glad you have those records from way back!

    • Thanks 1

    Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

    Been thinking the same.  Looking at pattern evolution doesnt have that look....but seeing southern stream getting active and lots pinwheeling through the NS, you can see how chances are increasing, and it's litterally a matter of time(ing) till somethin pops.  At the minimum it really looks active, so me thinks much modelwatching is about to happen.  Prepare for blizz's snowmaps ^_^

    I remember back in the late 70s we had a snowstorm on a Monday,Wednesday and Friday the same week. I don't remember what month it was. It was either January or February. Each storm dumped a foot each time. I remember Penndot was working around the clock that whole week plowing. Would be nice to see that again.

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