mahantango#1

3 hours ago, canderson said:

Oddly precip ended up not being an issue - many areas had nearly .25” rain Sunday.

I clocked in at .14”. 

Same amount of rain here .14

Looks like between 2-4 inches of the snow, ice pack left on the ground (at my place) to melt this week. The snow piles...thats a different story.

14 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

@canderson March and April are coming up. For wind weenies like you it's mecca

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk
 

Please no more 20 to 50mph winds.

44 minutes ago, Voyager said:

So. I did more measurements...

Backyard walkway: 2"

My white GMC: 2.5"

My neighbor's blue Ford: 2.25"

Congrats on this astounding snow victory! 

22 minutes ago, Voyager said:

That would be my range. I just woke up, got a coffee and a smoke, and went out back. I measured 2 inches on the backyard walkway. Might have been a little more if I actually had a snow board, because it initially was melting on contact on paved surfaces. I'd probably get a truer measurement if I went out front and measured on one of the cars.

If I look closely I can see it snowed on the exposed grass in the yard that I shoveled from the January snowstorm. On to the next threat of snow.

Wet snow here and 34 degrees.

9 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Cars caved. Sidewalks caving Street? Not yet, but it's snowing big fatties right now, so it's just a matter of time.

Rain here.

5 minutes ago, canderson said:

CTP has hinted at very minimum precip all week and ultimately that’s the kill shot. 
 

I of course am happy so I don’t empty my innards starting In a few hours for naught lol 

Enjoy your prep mixture. Too bad they don't recommend mixing it with vodka, or some other kind of alcohol. That would make the experience better when your shitfaced getting to the bathroom.

After a bitter cold stretch from late January through early February, who doesn't love a welcomed warmup for #ValentinesDay and the days following? Asking for a friend. #PAwx

from NWS this morning:

The other tricky aspects of the fcst include: relatively warm
boundary layer/road temps, precip rates/banding, onset timing,
elevation, and wet bulb effects. Without going to far into the
weeds, the key takeaway for this cycle is that odds have
increased on the margin for accumulating wet snowfall across
south central and particularly southeast PA Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night. The largest % chance increase is for areas
to the east of I-81 with WPC, RRFS, and NBM showing low to
moderate chances (30-50%) of snowfall totals >1 inch. The
official NDFD fcst initialized off of the 14/01Z NBM is likely a
bit too low at this point and would anticipate/front-run an
uptick in POPs and snow amounts to be more in the C-1" range
with the next cycle. There is the potential for additional
changes to this forecast in the next 12-24 hours so continue to
monitor especially for possible early Monday morning commute
impacts.

Is it me or is anybody else noticing that the snow cover is getting less, but I don't see any puddles or runoff. It just seems to be evaporating.

Our Climate Watch Fearless Forecast calls for no more than 5 of the next 28 days to feature high temperatures 8º or more below average. And not as dry in Pennsylvania as recent weeks.

10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

You posted 6z...12z is even better!

Is there any other model support for Sunday? We need an February 1983 repeat 

24 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Even down here, my forecast on Thursday evening (night before the storm) was for "4 or more inches, with the potential for as much as a foot" - the following day, 24.5" fell. 

NWS kept updating the amounts during the storm.

2 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I remember that storm well, too. I was living in Bethlehem, and we had two consecutive hours of 5" per hour snowfall, which is still the heaviest rate I've seen in my lifetime.

I think Harrisburg had that too if my memory serves me correct.

 I remember this storm very well. Original forecast was 1-3 than 2-4 till it was all set an done i received 18 inches. I think Harrisburg got 24 inches. There was Thunder and lightning during the storm. February 10-12th, 1983: 
Called the “Megalopolitan blockbuster snowstorm,” this major snowstorm impacted the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Snowfall of up to 25 inches fell in Allentown, Pennsylvania. Snowfall of 35 inches occurred in parts of the Blue Ridge Mountains of West Virginia at Glen Cary. Windsor Locks, Connecticut, recorded a record 19 inches in 12 hours. A ship sunk off the Virginia/Maryland coast, killing 33. There were 46 total storm-related fatalities.

30 minutes ago, Voyager said:

There was a big time wind shift around 1:00pm in Hazleton. A West wind that was blocked by the water silos turned into a north wind that's now blowing a blizzard of the roof of the plant.

Of course the fallout ends up right where the unload hose hooks to the truck.

You have to a long talk with mother nature again as it is cloudy all day again. You have to stress to her we need sunshine 

Wind now gusting to 34mph.

4 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

and that MU dude wrote it off with his arrogant undertones yesterday....so there's that. 

With NAO headed pos, my worry is and has been that this thing lifts far enough to wash away my hopes for white gold.  

Seems like every winter we go through this several times, trying to determine if the storm is coming north. Time will tell if we get this one. I hope we do. But something tells me we won't. So I guess it's 50, 50 right now.

JB is not changing his stance on this potential storm coming north...yet. 

The Euro at 06z is coming back, but now its north. It was shoved south yesterday. This is why I have not changed my idea on this until I see this get into the west coast. So only long range forecast, that started on the 4th has not changed yet for this potential. If I have to change it I will change it once but not till I see the reality of the feature that arrives Thursday or Friday, not with every flipping model run

That does not say I am right. Every one of you who has written this off COULD BE SPOT ON RIGHT!!! You may have had it all the way and I would have been wrong all the way. So I am not saying you are wrong. Nor am I critical of you because you have the opposite stand to mine. I just wonder if you would quit if you were looking at it the way I do. You see, I see what you do. I see all the models too. But the weather is the greatest teacher of what the apostle Paul said:" Those who know what they know don't know what they ought to know". That goes for me. If on Friday I have to eat crow, it means I did not know what I ought to know. But what you ought to know is never obvious, and in a way ,modeling is something obvious.. The consensus is always there. So I see it just like you. I am just showing that perhaps there is merit in taking the time to take a stand and holding it until you are sure. So I am not good enough to be sure that I was wrong, and still think after the work put in I could be right. So until I see what things look like tomorrow and Friday, no changes in this idea that started Feb 4

4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

6z Euro continues to be on board with a slightly warmer & more tucked low position near the DelMarVa before it exits off of the coast.

It still brings warning level snow to the Harrisburg area this run.

If we end up with this track, I like our chances.

I guess if it verified it would be a heavy wet snow.