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mahantango#1

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    Central PA Autumn 2026

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

     

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    The NAM computer model is being retired!
    I’m not crying. You’re crying!
    Budget Cuts have led to these models being ‘retired’ and replaced by RRFS. Unfortunately, this new model version 1 that we have seen has many flaws and many of us in the weather community do not believe it’s ready for prime time.
    I’ve showed it a few times and had to acknowledge when it failed.
    We may be seeing v2 go into production.
    No model is perfect. It is “Guidance NOT Gospel”, for us to incorporate, but also identify the bias.
    I have used many models over the years. I remember the LFM, NGM, and especially the MRF when it saw the Superstorm of March 1993 five days (120 hours) ahead of time.
    There have been countless times I’ve labeled a model map with NAM 3Km (the 3 kilometer high resolution product suite). Including this last January in something I documented extensively here.
    The NAM 3 Km model accurately called the Sleet Storm timing and totals very well ninjas a hard time trusting 3”+ of sleet with the early change over from snow.
    This model has a bias to overdo convection/thunderstorms, but performed best in winter with Cold Air Damming and Wintery Mix Changeover.
    It will be missed and there will be time to sift through new support systems.
    That is the way.
    For now, Goodbye NAM.
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    • Like 1

    Central PA Autumn 2026

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    15 hours ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

    I agree with you and Blizz, this was one of the most beautiful foliage seasons that I can ever remember. One of the other neat little touches was the perfect colorful donut rings of leaves that formed under the trees until the wind blew them away the other day.

    Did you know that October 2026 was one of the LEAST WINDY Octobers on record in Central PA?
    With high pressure nearby for most of the month, there was little to no wind most days!
    A wet summer followed by a dry, warm, & calm October made for IDEAL fall colors
    May be an image of text

    Central PA Autumn 2026

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

     ·
    Could Halloween’s winds hold a clue to winter?
    “Whatever way the wind blows on Halloween, it will blow that way the whole winter.” — Old Irish Weather Saying
    It’s folklore rather than a reliable forecast, but a fun reason to watch the rustling leaves this October 31!
    Will your trick-or-treaters need an extra layer or an umbrella?
    Have you heard this saying before?
    May be an image of text

    Central PA Autumn 2026

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    It's not unusual...to have a long, dry stretch of time in Autumn. The top 10 driest stretches (no measurable precipitation) for Harrisburg (#1 is 35 days) and Williamsport (36 days):
    May be an image of blueprint and text
    MDT's 24 day in Oct 2024 stretch was broken on Nov 1st with just 0.01". It then wasn't until the 10th of Nov that more than a T occurred there (0.20").
    • Like 1
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