mahantango#1

NWS changed their tune in temps and precipitation for Friday. Those 40s and 50s are gone!

6 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

NWS  has 58 for Central PA Friday lol..I mean are they awake?

You should know by now IF that scenario changes they will be the last one to the table. Key word IF.

13 this morning.

Forum seems to be fairly quiet lately. It seems disappointment has set in.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
313 AM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033-034-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-058-230815-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Schuylkill-
313 AM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Light snow is expected before turning to a mix of precipitation later
tonight. A thin coating of ice is possible on top of a light
accumulation of snow.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A coating of snow and sleet may topped by a thin coating of ice
before temperatures warm up on Tuesday.

9 hours ago, Ruin said:

how much do we tech need for it to be called a white christmas? 

1 in.

From our good friend DT:

We have had a really good first half of December but now the second half is not as good. For some it is going to get pretty warm Christmas week. But as I maintained for years here on this Facebook page, on the website, and on my other social media platforms winter like the other seasons has fundamentally shifted because the climate is warming. Since the late 1990s the winter season has really consisted of January February and March.  

Even back in the good old days in the winters of the 1960s '70s '80s and '90s getting a big snow east of the mountains in December was not a common occurrence because of the ocean water temperatures are still relatively mild. That is even more of an issue over the last 25 years because of the warming climate.

The point is that the heart of winter is still yet to come. And please keep in mind that meteorological winter is December 1 through February 28th. The winter solstice which is based upon astronomy has occurred today.

Though many may not notice the shifting seasons has nothing to do with just winter. Usually September is a continuation of August and we don't really see the first cool air until October. It has been that way for about 25 years. Usually December is a continuation of November as the research shows that there has been a significant drop off in December snowfall over the Eastern CONUS s since the year 2000. 

Finally there are signs that we are going to come out of this shitty pattern that we are in - perhaps by the end of the year and we will see what January brings.

25 minutes ago, canderson said:

Windy again. 35 mph winds. 

Would you expect anything less?

Still over 16,000 customers of PPL without power this morning. 17 this morning.

19 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

My station is too protected to get anything close to accurate wind speeds. At the airport right down the road, a gust of 53mph was just recorded:

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KPAMARIE28?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR1aUZn05v6EL1SCu83D6YWAz4KB0xPA7zBHapk7ZxcoZfWMxfMgsX9YEUY_aem_AatgGdtB3HDmy_lQiEQW3p1bDKQzlUbvSccn8VpHsQ_8zcjQ2DxBPNU21ROdUrVrozfMvldDScho9lY6LgyGK0dL

Just seen mdt had a gust close to 70.

I thought there was a tornado coming.

Temp dropped from 50 t0 39 in less then 4 min when that came through 

I had a gust of 48.3 here with that squall. That's impressive with where I live. Son on his Ambient had a 76 gust and he lives on top of a hill about 2 to 3  miles as the crow flies from me.

Seems to be a little uncertainty on how this weather pattern will evolve the next 2 weeks. 

1.03 rain from this event so far.

Feels like Spring out there.

The snow on the ground is gone except for the piles that I created.

Patiently waiting to see if this squall line will make it through my area. Was looking forward to a thunderstorm.

DT: ✳️ ALERT POSSIBLE NEW ENGLAND. NYC / NORTH NJ / LONG ISLAND SNOWSTORM appox DEC 30 ✳️

1⃣ Be advised that this is a long way off folks! This possible scenario is based upon a extrapolation of a pattern shift which has NOT yet happened.

KEY POINT -- a forecast or scenario based upon an extrapolation always has the high risk of being wrong--- even if you really really love snow and winter and cold.  

  2⃣ The Christmas Day and 12/26 pattern looks there mild for most of the country east of the Rockies and SOUTH of Interstate 70. BUT the Trough in SE Canada and an East based -NAO in Iceland is able to do enough to flatten the Ridge in the Plains and Midwest so that the extreme warmth across the southern states does not push north of I-70 on either Christmas day or on 12/26.

 3⃣ There is good model agreement especially with the AI models and the European ensemble that the Iceland East based -NAO will continue to build or increase in size of power AND retrograde towards Greenland and Baffin Island by the end of DEC ,

 4⃣. This movement will cause a closed 500mb LOW to form in SE Canada which in turn lowers the heights over the Eastern US to allow another shortwave to drop towards the Middle Atlantic Coast

 5⃣ IF this shortwave energy is real …IF… it could cause a significant surface LOW to form off the Mid-Atlantic coast and bring accumulating snow possibly significant snow to New England/ NYC/ Northern NJ and Long Island around 12/30/25

6⃣ The THIRD image is valid JAN 2: the strong Ridge over the Plains / Midwest has now been suppressed significantly as the block Greenland continues to Retrograde towards Labrador and Quebec. The problem is the Deep Trough in western Canada that extends down the West coast. This Trough is partially associated with the PV in Northwest Canada.

7⃣ IF we can get that deep Trough in western Canada and the PAC NW to weaken or slide eastward ….IF… the entire pattern would see a significant flip and set up a potentially stormy cold first half of JAN   

  ▶️HOWEVER this is pure speculation as currently there is no sign of that actually happening. ◀️

18 this morning.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
147 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-026>028-035>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-190915-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WI.Y.0016.251219T0600Z-251220T0600Z/
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Fulton-
Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-
Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-
Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Selinsgrove, Ridgway, Lewisburg,
Coudersport, Wellsboro, Mount Union, Renovo, St. Marys,
Huntingdon, Trout Run, DuBois, Harrisburg, York, Mansfield,
McConnellsburg, Mifflintown, Williamsport, Berwick, Lebanon,
Emporium, Gettysburg, Hershey, Sunbury, Pottsville, Clearfield,
Philipsburg, Chambersburg, Lock Haven, Warren, Newport, Danville,
Bloomsburg, Shamokin, Lancaster, Bradford, Carlisle, Laporte,
Lewistown, and State College
147 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...Central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 1 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects including
  holiday decorations. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few
  power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Freezing fog tonight, thunderstorms in the forecast for tomorrow night. 

It would be nice to experience a good thunderstorm this time of year. There is also a myth to having a thunderstorm in winter. Something like within 10 days of a thunderstorm in winter there will be a snowstorm.