mahantango#1

JB this morning:

While the MJO is shown in the charts to be in the null phase. The current way we get there is has a strong vv pulse coming through the Indian Ocean that is associated with phases 3/4. and those are very warm in December. 

And this looks correct to me. But its coming and going fast and that cold is building in Canada. It collapses and in the 10-15 we are back to a phase 8/1 look. 

So I would expect a rapid response back the other way after that

So I think Paul Roundy has a good idea here and after I got a chance to look, I agree with his assessment

1 minute ago, Voyager said:

I wish. Many say we don't do snowstorms and winter like we used to. There is truth to that, but we also don't do heat waves like we used to either.

Truth, somewhere along the way it all went wrong.

3 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Yeah, I know. As has been mentioned at times in this, and other forums, it seems that lately any modeled warm ups get muted over time.

Hoping next summer features at least 2 weeks straight mid 90's with dp in mid 70's.

23 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I like the last part that says warming trend. Just wish there weren't question marks after it.

Sounds like uncertainty as if will it happen at all. Stay tuned.

7 minutes ago, TimB said:

Yeah, just like 1976 and 1989.

I remember those years 1989 I think after December the cold went away if I remember right. 1976 the cold continued until February. I remember walking halfway across the Susquehanna River on the ice. 

Ice on the creek this morning that formed overnight. Reminds me of December 1976 and 1989.

4 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Looking at the ten day, the coming cold doesn't seem to be as... cold as they had initially advertised.

JB said this this morning: 

I am keying on the WPO and the MJO. There is alot of warm air in the pattern day 11-20, but the WPO favors it getting cut down coming to the east. In fact opposite models, there should be an eastern trough week 3 and dont be surprised if the models head that way. Its a rare an unholy alliance, but I think the GEFS is the better model here and I am leaning on it

Somethings gotta give, Either the big telleconnections are wrong or the temperature pattern on the euro is overwarmed

3.4 here, might drop a little more till sunrise. Coldest reading yet this season.

8 minutes ago, Voyager said:

3.0 here right now.

No sooner do I go back to hauling water that the gates of arctic hell open up. 

Stay warm, at least there is not 2 feet of snow on the ground with 40mph winds at these temps. 

27 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Boy do I wish we'd never gotten that snow on Tuesday. I don't know if it's that they are closer to the southern storm, or it's the lack of snowcover, but while Reading and Allentown are hovering around 20 this morning, I'm down to 7 up here.

I'd rather have the 20.

 

8.4 this morning, coldest so far this season.

Took notice I got down to 18 last night, coldest so far this season. I wonder how low I'll drop tonight?

Ambient ws5000

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

 

The advertised pattern for the next few weeks should keep us mostly in the game. Hopefully it’s just a matter of time before we are back to tracking a specific chance for more snow.

Hopefully it's not late in the 4th quarter around the 2 minute warning that ole man winter decides to throw a hail-mary.

9 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Storms seem to be missing South. Almost like the cold pushed the boundary to far

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk
 

We been through this before. Wasn't last year too we experienced this also?

20 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Outside of some showers the GFS looks really dry over the next couple of weeks. 

And just over a week ago, almost everyone agreed and the models pointed out a good pattern for snow. Now nothing except cold.

JB said he expects that wave Friday night to come further north then what is forecasted now. But he didn't say how far north he expects to go.