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mahantango#1

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    Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

    National Weather Service State College PA

    140 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

     

    PAZ057>059-064>066-211145-

    /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0004.260222T1000Z-260223T1800Z/

    Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Adams-York-Lancaster-

    Including the cities of Pottsville, Hershey, Harrisburg, York,

    Lancaster, Lebanon, and Gettysburg

    140 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

     

    ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH

    MONDAY AFTERNOON...

     

    * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 4 and

      6 inches possible.

     

    * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania.

     

    * WHEN...From late Saturday night through Monday afternoon.

     

    * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions

      could impact the Monday morning commute.

     

    * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There is still some uncertainty regarding the

      track of this storm. Any westward shifts in the track may result

      in higher snowfall amounts.

     

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

     

    Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

     

    &&

    • Like 1

    Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    storm 2 days out and the US GFS continues to have an epic storm in places where the euro has next to nothing I have no changes on my idea of 6-12 locally 18 DC to Boston, which almost seems like a mid-ground. This model battle should be something GVT officials are looking at. If GFS misses, what good is it? Why spend the money it took to develop this model if it consistently is least accurate vs the major models, though it beats up on the Navy NoGaps and CFSV2 , which is like beating up on a division 2 school if you are Division 1
     
    I will show the method I use for numbers later today You might find it interesting. Will do Bos,NYC, DC, State College and ACY
    • Like 2

    Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    From our good friend  DT:

    NEXT TIME SOME IDIOT ARGUES THE GFS HANDLES EAST COAST SNOWSTORMS WELL...

     

           TIME TO CANCEL THE GFS..... 

     

        33 INCHES OF SNOW DC ? Yeah its broken

     

     every Single run of the operational GFS for the past 3 days has showed a massive historic record shattering blizzard for some portion of the Middle Atlantic...

     

     now even the GFS AI is saying "WTF op-GFS !? " 

     

    The 6z and 12z GFS ensembles are waaaaaay east 

     

    The problem is that the operational GFS goes Bonkers with the 500mb LOW. It is over developing the 500 LOW amplification and it grabs the surface LOW and pulls a NW to just east of Wallops Island on the lower Virginia Eastern shore. Then every run of op- GFS stalls the LOW for 24 hours producing this incredibly heavy snow area from a monster rapidly intensifying Coastal nor'easter.

     

    This is nonsense.  

     

    There is a better chance of monkeys flying out of my ass on Sunday night or Monday morning then this solution as proposed by the operational GFS of a massive historic BLIZZARD of record shattering proportions in the Mid-Atlantic actually concurring

     

    As I stated in the video there is an upstream kicker and all the other models see it except for the operational GFS.  

     

    When the GFS AI and GFS ensembles don't even support this kind of extreme solution then you know the operational GFS is just busted.

     

    I figure it's about 12 hours before somebody starts blaming immigrants for fucking with the model.

    Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

     Capital  Weather  Gang:

    We're going to get out ahead of this because we know we'll get questions. No, we do not believe the GFS (American) model (just in), which shows 3 feet of snow for DC Sunday-Monday. It is ranked 4th for accuracy for a reason + not supported by other models which generally show a modest event. We'll post our analysis of what's most likely early afternoon today.

     

    Posted 11a Thursday.

    Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    From DT:

    THIS WEEK IN WX VIDEO TONIGHT

     

      LETS MONGER ABOUT SUNDAY MONDAY POSSIBLE EAST COAST WINTER STORM

     

    Just to give you all a clue…..Yesterday and again this morning and again this evening. NOAA/ NWS flew reconnaissance aircraft into the eastern Pacific to get a better sampling of the upper atmosphere and to make up for the loss of data from closure of several key weather stations in the upper planes in Midwest, which used to end up with the balloons to gather information about the atmosphere.

     

    The fact that the national weather service had to send out extra planes into the eastern, pacific to gather this data speaks to how badly the overall weather models have performed recently because of the lack of information from the weather stations that have been partially shut down in the upper Midwest.

     

    Guess what happened when they flew those planes and gather the extra data? They were a huge changes in what the models are showing is going to happen for Sunday Monday. Full details and discussion tonight on the weather video around 1030pm

    Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    22 minutes ago, Voyager said:

    That would be my range. I just woke up, got a coffee and a smoke, and went out back. I measured 2 inches on the backyard walkway. Might have been a little more if I actually had a snow board, because it initially was melting on contact on paved surfaces. I'd probably get a truer measurement if I went out front and measured on one of the cars.

    If I look closely I can see it snowed on the exposed grass in the yard that I shoveled from the January snowstorm. On to the next threat of snow.

    Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, canderson said:

    CTP has hinted at very minimum precip all week and ultimately that’s the kill shot. 
     

    I of course am happy so I don’t empty my innards starting In a few hours for naught lol 

    Enjoy your prep mixture. Too bad they don't recommend mixing it with vodka, or some other kind of alcohol. That would make the experience better when your shitfaced getting to the bathroom.

    • Haha 1
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