mahantango#1
-
Posts
5,512 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Posts posted by mahantango#1
-
-
256 FXUS61 KCTP 031135 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 735 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Issued a Flash Flood Watch for all of our CWA through Midnight this Thursday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Late summer surge of heat and humidity continues with a severe thunderstorm and excessive rainfall threat through this Thursday evening && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Late summer surge of heat and humidity continues with a severe thunderstorm and excessive rainfall threat through this Thursday evening Main change this forecast cycle was to issue a Flash Flood Watch for the entire CWA based on the current wide distribution of moderate to heavy rain and embedded/training TSRA along with a HREF/NAM/MRMS blend of short range model guidance and remote sensing. A seemingly endless train of mid/upper level impulses riding ESE along the southern edge of a persistent jet and within a region of broad upper level diffluence and anomalously high PWATs of nearly 2 inches will continue to interact with numerous, converging convective outflow boundaries to produce several more bouts of heavy showers/TSRA today through at least early tonight. Basin "Average" rainfall across the CWA will likely range between 0.75 to 1.25 inches but as we saw Wed/Wednesday night, training/and back-building TSRA could easily dump over 3 inches of rain in just an hour and lead to significant flash flooding. The target areas for the heaviest rainfall today and this evening should be the Southwest half of the CWA as a well- defined outflow boundary has pushed into southern PA early today. We do expect the airmass to recover quickly late this morning/early this afternoon as this first MCS moves SE. However, a glance just to the left shows another developing MCS close on its heels over West-Central Lake Erie. This feature is progged by high res near term model guidance to track SE twd the laurel and diminish by 14-15Z. By 19-20Z today, more TSRA fire across Northern PA and a second larger area follows for this evening over a similar part of the state that experience the heavy rain over the past 24 hours. Additionally, increased southwest to westerly flow today will continue to pump in the late summer heat and very high dewpoints. A heat advisory remains in effect from 11a-8p Thursday across a portion of south central PA where max heat index values are projected to reach/exceed 100F. As mentioned above, SPC`s severe risk are will encompass primarily the SW half of the state where ML CAPE will be the highest, but the MRGL risk area will cover practically the entire rest of Eastern PA. An upper level trough passage favors one final round of showers and storms on Friday, but fortunately the Labor Day weekend is trending dry. The upper ridge is forecast to retrograde by the end of the week which allows for a return to more seasonal temperatures and lower humidity this weekend into early next week. &&
-
Strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and heavy rainfall are expected once again today through early tonight.
-
Flood Watch National Weather Service State College PA 242 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026 PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066-040400- /O.NEW.KCTP.FA.A.0016.260903T0642Z-260904T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin- Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming- Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland- Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Altoona, Johnstown, Mifflintown, Somerset, Lancaster, Philipsburg, Berwick, Wellsboro, Williamsport, Danville, DuBois, Lewistown, Huntingdon, Sunbury, Bloomsburg, Newport, Renovo, Lewisburg, Bradford, Mount Union, St. Marys, McConnellsburg, Mansfield, Selinsgrove, Harrisburg, Hershey, Warren, Gettysburg, Shamokin, Pottsville, Coudersport, Chambersburg, Lock Haven, Emporium, York, Trout Run, Laporte, Clearfield, Bedford, Ridgway, Lebanon, State College, and Carlisle 242 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania, including the following areas, Adams, Bedford, Blair, Cambria, Cameron, Clearfield, Columbia, Cumberland, Dauphin, Elk, Franklin, Fulton, Huntingdon, Juniata, Lancaster, Lebanon, McKean, Mifflin, Montour, Northern Centre, Northern Clinton, Northern Lycoming, Northumberland, Perry, Potter, Schuylkill, Snyder, Somerset, Southern Centre, Southern Clinton, Southern Lycoming, Sullivan, Tioga, Union, Warren and York. * WHEN...Through this evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Additional, multiple rounds of heavy rain from thunderstorms will create the threat for flash flooding of streams, creeks and poor drainage areas today through early tonight. Rainfall rates could exceed 3 inches per hour where several storms track east-southeast across the same locations. There should be a lull in the rain for several hours during the late morning and early afternoon hours today, before the thunderstorms greatly increase in number once again across Central Pennsylvania and the Susquehanna Valley. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Please monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && -
1 hour ago, Yardstickgozinya said:
5:30am update on the monster coming off the Glaks.
As the overnight's storms push to the southeast, another round is beginning to move in from the northwest. The environment doesn't look very supportive, so this is anticipated to weaken as it pushes southeast. All hazards threat for activity later in the afternoon/evening
-
Who could sleep through what I experienced during the night? Continuous lightning for hours, thunder and heavy rain at times. Almost 2" fell since 11:45pm.
-
1
-
-
Good lightning show to my north.
-
1
-
-
.76 rain today.
-
10 hours ago, WmsptWx said:
Unbelievably dark out right now.
Here too, thought we were headed to dusk.
-
22 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:
Unbelievably dark out right now.
Here too, thought we were headed to dusk.
-
1 hour ago, Voyager said:
Disgusting...
Can't beg, borrow, or steal a good storm, but we sure can get an ugly, foggy, dreary, misty morning.
-
Could there been a possible tornado here in Lancaster County this evening? Here is some of the damage from the White Horse area!! Part of a barn roof gone, a one room school house lost its whole roof, trees down on wires, and debris scattered across farm feilds!! All pics taken within a mile of each other.
-
1
-
-
Where was the heat advisory, or warning yesterday when we needed it?
-
1
-
-
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 430 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026 PAZ004>006-010>012-037-041-042-045-046-051-053-030830- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Tioga- Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming- Montour-Columbia- 430 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms with strong winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall are possible today and tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. $$ Colbert
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 430 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026 PAZ017>019-024-025-033-034-049-050-052-058-030830- Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Somerset- Bedford-Union-Snyder-Northumberland-Schuylkill- 430 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms with strong winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall are possible today and tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Strong to severe thunderstorms with strong winds and heavy rainfall are possible again on Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. $$
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 430 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026 PAZ026>028-035-036-056-057-059-063>066-030830- Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon- Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- 430 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026 ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms with strong winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall are possible today and tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Heat Advisory. Strong to severe thunderstorms with strong winds and heavy rainfall are possible again on Thursday. Heat index values will range from the upper 90s to the low 100s Thursday afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. $$
-
2
-
-
93 was the high yesterday .24 rain.had a dp of 84 yesterday afternoon with a heat index of 116
-
1
-
-
Temp 86 here dp 79 heat index 99
-
Favorites · ·
Tuesday - September 1, 2026 @ 6 AM EDT: A nearly stationary frontal boundary from the Endless Mountains Northeast of Williamsport to the Greater Philadelphia area will provide the focus for a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Some of the storms could become severe with strong, damaging winds, frequent lightning, hail and locally heavy rainfall. Heat indices this afternoon will reach 95 to 100 degrees across the Lower Susquehanna Valley and Southeastern PA
-
1
-
-
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026 PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066-020900- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin- Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming- Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland- Adams-York-Lancaster- 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong winds and heavy rainfall are possible late today into tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms with strong winds and heavy rainfall are possible Wednesday and Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.
-
1
-
-
CTP Warning Counts So Far in 2026SEVERE: 292 warnings is most EVER in a calendar yearTORNADO: 30 warnings year-to-date ranks 4th behind 1996 (34), 2011 (40), and 1998 (58)FLASH FLOOD: 80 warnings year-to-date ranks 4th behind 1995 (82), 1998 (105), and 1996 (246)
-
1
-
-
3 hours ago, Yardstickgozinya said:
I'm pretty sure that you already knew that was likely this week. I apologize if i'm stepping on your toes. Maybe i'm overthinking things.
Let's see if it come to fruition.
-
24 minutes ago, canderson said:
Back into the 90s all week. Mid to upper for some of it.
-
1
-
-
11 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:
And Thursday.
Wow 3 days in a row of possible severe weather.
-
2 hours ago, Yardstickgozinya said:
I'm not sure how many people here have read Genesis from the bible, but there's actually some scripture about fall.
Genesis 1:3
And the Lord said, let there be Fall ,and on the first day he realized that it really sucked.. So on the second day he said, let there be football, and the Lord saw that it was good.
I hate fall with a passion. I consider it the season of death , depression, shortening days and nasty a** pumpkin flavored food and drinks. If it's not going be blistering hot with high humidity and afternoon thunderstorms, then it needs to be in the single digits with snow on the ground and the next storm already in focus.
With that last sentence, you'll definitely awaken the great Blizz. It's way to early to awaken him. You'll need to start the fall thread in a few days.
-
1
-
-
15 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:
55 for my Marysville low.
Beautiful late Summer day is underway!
Theres still some heat and humidity to be had before we close the book on summer. Fall is getting close, and for some of us...it's too close.
-
Here is the 2026 Tornado list and map for Pennsylvania as of August 28th.45 tornadoes this year is the 2nd most ever for any year! The only year with more is 1998 with 57.More statistics:22 in June = 2nd most for June or any month15 in July = 2nd most for July8 in August = 2nd most for August37 for June + July = Record most for June + July
-
2
-
Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Posted