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mahantango#1

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    Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    Good ole SS:
     
     
    ⚠️ READ THE ENTIRE UPDATE!!!
    *THIS COULD BE A BLIZZARD *OR*
    THIS MAY ONLY BE A FEW INCHES.
    ***WE DON’T KNOW JUST YET***
    ————————————————-
    **STORM MODE ACTIVATED**
    ————————————————-
    **THIS FORECAST COULD EASILY CHANGE TODAY** STAY TUNED!!!
    ————————————————-
    **WE SIMPLY DON’T KNOW THE TRACK DUE TO MODEL SPREAD!
    ————————————————-
    PREPARE FOR THE WORST AND HOPE FOR THE BEST!
    ————————————————-
    STARTING: SUNDAY DAYBREAK
    ENDING: MONDAY DAYBREAK
    (HEAVIEST SNOW LATE SUNDAY)
    ————————————————-
    WHAT: VERY HEAVY WET SNOW!
    AMOUNTS: 6”-30” Depending on your location and the track of storm.
    Areas along 83 may see close to a FOOT while areas WEST of 83 may only see 4-8”. Areas near I-95 may see 2-3 FEET (Maybe More). Highest amounts of 2-3 Feet will likely be near the coast! If the storm shifts east heavy snow will move out over the ocean. If it shifts west heavy snow will move over Central Pennsylvania. There are so many variables and we do not know.
    —————————————————-
    WE BELIEVE MANY PEOPLE FROM 83 AND POINTS EAST will “LIKELY” see significant WET snow!
    HOWEVER that’s NOT a guarantee!
    **Models are all over the place!!!**
    Look at these models and you will understand. THERE IS A HUGE SPREAD in totals and not much model agreement. There’s ALSO TIME today for TRACK changes to happen.
    We are monitoring all the data that comes in and we’ll get it out to you as fast as possible. We are now in storm mode and we will not answer many questions, but we will get the info out as fast as we can. Please understand this is an extremely difficult forecast. There is no way in this world for anyone to know which way this storm could track or wheel track. Just now that this is an extremely powerful and dangerous storm and a track west or east will change this forecast drastically. Someone will get 24 feet of snow!-
    This storm is so big and powerful it will wobble and just a slight wobble WEST will SHIFT huge totals over SCPA. YES THAT IS A POSSIBILITY!!! BUT, we don’t know and likely WONT KNOW until the event is happening!!!
    WE STRONGLY SUGGEST GETTING SOME GROCERIES AND SUPPLIES IF YOU ARE NEAR 83 & POINTS EAST!!
    You may not need them but time is running out and it’s better to be prepared and not need it !!!
    We are monitoring all the data that comes in and we’ll get it out to you as fast as possible. We are now in storm mode and we will not answer many questions, but we will get the info out as fast as we can. Please understand this is an extremely difficult forecast. There is no way in this world for anyone to know which way this storm could track or wheel track. Just now that this is an extremely powerful and dangerous storm and a track west or east will change this forecast drastically. Someone will get 2-4 feet of snow! BUT WHERE????
    Even if you only get 6 inches of snow, it’s going to be a very heavy wet snow and extremely hard to shovel. Just imagine if the storm shifts and you get 12 to 20 inches of snow? With this being a very heavy snow that changes things significantly. Please be prepared for that and even possible power outages. There are lots of possibilities with this storm and we just do not know where exactly things will be the worst. We are monitoring and we will do our best to sort through the data, but it may be a storm that we have to just watch and report on in real time.
    Stay Tuned For More Updates!
    • Haha 1

    Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    I do not believe there will be any shifting east of the modeling.The storm track is LOCKED IN.The only remaining question is how quickly the upper low strengthens. This impacts the DCA to PHL to eastern MD zone. Sending maps to explain.
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
    X live this later this AM. MY THOUGHTS.3-6 DCA, BWI into eastern PA & NW NJ.6-12 from PHL-central NJ.12" in NYC. 12-18 along the Jersey shore into central Long Island. 1-2 feet from eastern LI to Boston including the Cape Cop. Around a foot in PVD, 6-12 HFD. 6-12 eastern MD/DE

    Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    Sunday
    Snow before 10am, then snow, possibly mixed with rain between 10am and 4pm, then snow after 4pm. High near 36. Calm wind becoming east around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
    Sunday Night
    Snow. Low around 29. Light and variable wind becoming north 5 to 9 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
     
    Thats my NWS forecast.
    • Like 1

    Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    57 minutes ago, Voyager said:

    Is there any chance things move even more west yet before Sunday? I hate when a big dog comes and Philly to NYC steals the thunder and gets crushed while we're out here looking at gradients and lesser amounts.

    If we're going to get this, I want to be in the 20" plus area.

    I hope we all the the most accumulation possible...then we can all move on to Spring 

    • Like 1

    Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

    National Weather Service State College PA

    140 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

     

    PAZ057>059-064>066-211145-

    /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0004.260222T1000Z-260223T1800Z/

    Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Adams-York-Lancaster-

    Including the cities of Pottsville, Hershey, Harrisburg, York,

    Lancaster, Lebanon, and Gettysburg

    140 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

     

    ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH

    MONDAY AFTERNOON...

     

    * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 4 and

      6 inches possible.

     

    * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania.

     

    * WHEN...From late Saturday night through Monday afternoon.

     

    * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions

      could impact the Monday morning commute.

     

    * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There is still some uncertainty regarding the

      track of this storm. Any westward shifts in the track may result

      in higher snowfall amounts.

     

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

     

    Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

     

    &&

    • Like 1

    Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    storm 2 days out and the US GFS continues to have an epic storm in places where the euro has next to nothing I have no changes on my idea of 6-12 locally 18 DC to Boston, which almost seems like a mid-ground. This model battle should be something GVT officials are looking at. If GFS misses, what good is it? Why spend the money it took to develop this model if it consistently is least accurate vs the major models, though it beats up on the Navy NoGaps and CFSV2 , which is like beating up on a division 2 school if you are Division 1
     
    I will show the method I use for numbers later today You might find it interesting. Will do Bos,NYC, DC, State College and ACY
    • Like 2

    Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    From our good friend  DT:

    NEXT TIME SOME IDIOT ARGUES THE GFS HANDLES EAST COAST SNOWSTORMS WELL...

     

           TIME TO CANCEL THE GFS..... 

     

        33 INCHES OF SNOW DC ? Yeah its broken

     

     every Single run of the operational GFS for the past 3 days has showed a massive historic record shattering blizzard for some portion of the Middle Atlantic...

     

     now even the GFS AI is saying "WTF op-GFS !? " 

     

    The 6z and 12z GFS ensembles are waaaaaay east 

     

    The problem is that the operational GFS goes Bonkers with the 500mb LOW. It is over developing the 500 LOW amplification and it grabs the surface LOW and pulls a NW to just east of Wallops Island on the lower Virginia Eastern shore. Then every run of op- GFS stalls the LOW for 24 hours producing this incredibly heavy snow area from a monster rapidly intensifying Coastal nor'easter.

     

    This is nonsense.  

     

    There is a better chance of monkeys flying out of my ass on Sunday night or Monday morning then this solution as proposed by the operational GFS of a massive historic BLIZZARD of record shattering proportions in the Mid-Atlantic actually concurring

     

    As I stated in the video there is an upstream kicker and all the other models see it except for the operational GFS.  

     

    When the GFS AI and GFS ensembles don't even support this kind of extreme solution then you know the operational GFS is just busted.

     

    I figure it's about 12 hours before somebody starts blaming immigrants for fucking with the model.

    Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

     Capital  Weather  Gang:

    We're going to get out ahead of this because we know we'll get questions. No, we do not believe the GFS (American) model (just in), which shows 3 feet of snow for DC Sunday-Monday. It is ranked 4th for accuracy for a reason + not supported by other models which generally show a modest event. We'll post our analysis of what's most likely early afternoon today.

     

    Posted 11a Thursday.

    Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    From DT:

    THIS WEEK IN WX VIDEO TONIGHT

     

      LETS MONGER ABOUT SUNDAY MONDAY POSSIBLE EAST COAST WINTER STORM

     

    Just to give you all a clue…..Yesterday and again this morning and again this evening. NOAA/ NWS flew reconnaissance aircraft into the eastern Pacific to get a better sampling of the upper atmosphere and to make up for the loss of data from closure of several key weather stations in the upper planes in Midwest, which used to end up with the balloons to gather information about the atmosphere.

     

    The fact that the national weather service had to send out extra planes into the eastern, pacific to gather this data speaks to how badly the overall weather models have performed recently because of the lack of information from the weather stations that have been partially shut down in the upper Midwest.

     

    Guess what happened when they flew those planes and gather the extra data? They were a huge changes in what the models are showing is going to happen for Sunday Monday. Full details and discussion tonight on the weather video around 1030pm

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