mahantango#1

Beautiful landscape this morning. depends where I measure 3-4 inches at places. On my stone gravel lane 1.5-2 inches fell overnight. Trees are caked with snow.

33 and very wet snow started about 10 min ago.

13 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

18z High res short range Canadian HRDPS has the inverted trough band right in the west shore of Harrisburg really close to RT. 15

It shows 5 inches for Harrisburg by tomorrow morning.

And of course looks like I'll miss it by about 15 miles or so.

Temp dropped almost 2 degrees the past hour. Down to 35.2 now just waiting on the rain  to change to snow. .23 precipitation today. Most of that was 97% rain.

27 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I've been a pessimistic regarding this storm, but I have to say it's far far too early to say anything. 7pm was the earliest time I could pin point to tell. Especially regarding what I thought was our best shot, the inverted trough

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Took notice that NWS didn't alter their Winter Storm Warnings as of 11 am update. So they must feel somewhat confident on their forecasts 

I know it's far from over. But might as well stick this in here. Maybe the storm will surprise some of us.

Even CBS21 say the Susquehanna Valley might only end up with 2-3 inches. https://www.facebook.com/cbs21news/videos/1288428943103685

In the last 15 min. the snow turned to rain here.33.4 temp. and a 33 dp.

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Heavy snowfall is expected today into Monday
over practically all of the Southeast half of Pennsylvania.

Confidence continues to increase in an area of low pressure
rapidly developing off the east coast today as a very dynamic upper
trough digs southeast from the Great Lakes region and amplifies
across the Central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic Coast. The
latest 00z Sunday guidance continues to come into good agreement
on the position and strength of the coastal low as it
strengthens/bombs out as its heads from the Outer Banks late
this morning NNE to about 125NM east of KSBY this evening.

GEFS Ensemble Plumes and their respective anomalies of various
parameters show a well-defined inverted trough over Central PA
today, extending NWWD from the aforementieond coastal low.

This trough is at the western edge of a highly anomalous East
to NErly LLJ (falling into the minus 4-5 sigma u-component of
the wind at 925 and 850 mb). Increasing upper level diffluence
ahead of the digging upper trough will support gradual
enhancement of snowfall rates across all of Central PA today
with snowfall rates within these quasi north/south bands of snow
exceeding 1 inch per hour (possibly over 2 inches at times in
heavy CSI bands across our far eastern CWA.

A complicating feature that will enhance and extend significant
impacts from this storm will be the increasingly strong NNE to
NNW wind - that will gust over 30 mph tonight (and likely over
40 mph) on Monday. This will lead to significant/extensive
blowing and drifting snow with localized near whiteout
conditions possible.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A high degree of uncertainty remains with
expected snowfall over the rest of northern PA.

Significant uncertainty still remains regarding snowfall over
the rest of North-Central, NW PA and the Middle Susq Valley
considering the likelihood for a quasi-stationary nearly
north/south band of heavy snow (lasting several hours or more)
along the axis of an inverted llvl trough and leading edge of
the lower/deeper DGZ that will be situated from the Scent Mtns
to somewhere between KUNV/KSEG and KIPT later Sunday
afternoon/Sunday night.

A couple of things to keep in mind regarding this snowfall
forecast:
* As the low quickly deepens off the east coast, expect areas of
  enhanced low to mid level frontogenesis and UVVEL to develop
  in the western periphery of the system. Much of this banding
  will likely set up just  east of the CWA, but could still
  develop across parts of our central and eastern zones.
* Multiple models continue to show a snow band associated with
  an area of low level convergence within an inverted trough
  extending northwestward from the coastal low. While this type
  of band is more likely to set up somewhere in central PA, it
  will likely be narrow with a widely varying snowfall totals
  on either side of the band.

Heard the geese last night around 11pm sounds like they were headed north. So the signs of spring are starting to show.

If it keeps snowing like it is now till tomorrow morning, we won't have anything to worry about. Seems where i'm located at I might be in the screw zone. Even though I'm technically in the WSW.

5 minutes ago, Storm Clouds said:

SMH idiots…why are they using a SERF mean snow map? Probably because it shows the most snow…

I guess I woke the forum up.

12 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Sure wish this forum would wake up a bit. The Philly and NYC forums are quite active, and as such I'm having to go to them for analysis, obs, and general commentary.

The forum would surely wake up when you start talking about 90 degree heat and 77 degree dewpoints and aa heat index of 115.

Down to 27 here.

5 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

Yeah, that's kinda strange. I believe your east of me and  my p&c has 2 to 6 inches total . Nws has also been putting quite an emphasis on their lack of confidence and the possibility of extremely varying accumulations over short distance. 

I'm located in Northern Dauphin County. I can throw a stone across the creek into Northumberland county. Yea all these forecasts are all over the place.

All this talk of snow. My NWS forecast has not changed even with the WSW it's still saying 2-4. 

3 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

what are they basing this off? 6z gfs shows eastern berks getting almost two feet

Maybe the roll of the dice at this point.