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mahantango#1

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  1. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 492 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT

    FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

     

    PAC001-003-005-007-009-013-019-021-023-027-031-033-035-037-039-

    041-043-047-049-051-053-055-057-059-061-063-065-067-071-073-075-

    081-083-085-087-093-097-099-105-107-109-111-113-117-119-121-123-

    125-129-133-190100-

    /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0492.260718T1700Z-260719T0100Z/

     

    PA

    . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

     

    ADAMS ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG

    BEAVER BEDFORD BLAIR

    BUTLER CAMBRIA CAMERON

    CENTRE CLARION CLEARFIELD

    CLINTON COLUMBIA CRAWFORD

    CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN ELK

    ERIE FAYETTE FOREST

    FRANKLIN FULTON GREENE

    HUNTINGDON INDIANA JEFFERSON

    JUNIATA LANCASTER LAWRENCE

    LEBANON LYCOMING MCKEAN

    MERCER MIFFLIN MONTOUR

    NORTHUMBERLAND PERRY POTTER

    SCHUYLKILL SNYDER SOMERSET

    SULLIVAN TIOGA UNION

    VENANGO WARREN WASHINGTON

    WESTMORELAND YORK

    $$

    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 492

    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

    100 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026

     

    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 492 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT

    FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

     

    WVC009-029-049-051-061-069-077-103-190100-

    /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0492.260718T1700Z-260719T0100Z/

     

    WV

    . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

     

    BROOKE HANCOCK MARION

    MARSHALL MONONGALIA OHIO

    PRESTON WETZEL

    $$

  2. A Flood (FA) Watch has been issued for Lancaster, York, Dauphin, Cumberland, Centre, Schuylkill, Franklin, Lebanon, Blair, Cambria, Lycoming, Northumberland, Clearfield, Adams, Somerset, Columbia, Union, Mifflin, Bedford, Clinton, Huntingdon, Perry, Snyder, Juniata, Fulton, Montour county(ies) until Jul 19 12:00AM. Watch out for rapidly rising water. Avoid flooded roads & find an alternate route. @WGAL
    May be an image of map and text that says 'WGAL NEWS Os 北 STORM TEAM WELLSBORO DUBOIS MONTROSE FLOOD WATCH ISSUED: SATURDAY 9:21 LIN EDT 80 UNTIL: SUNDAY 12:00 AM EDT STATECOLLEGE ALTOONA HAZLETON NSTOWN LEWISTOWN SELINSGROVE POTTSVILLE HARDYST 80 ET BEDFORD ALLENTOWN LEBANON READING HARRISBURG 81 PENNA TURN- PIKE CHAMBERSBURG GETTYSBURG RLAND TURN- LANCASTER COATESVILLE PHIL PHILADELPHIA PIKE YORK HAGERSTOWN 83 TИЛCμ POSTED: SAT JUL 18, 2026 9:21 A EDT WILMINGTON BEL AIR MINNLERAWN FOMN VINE WGAL.COM/WEATHER'
  3. .DISCUSSION...
    
    -- Changed Discussion --

    KEY MESSAGE 1: Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and heavy rainfall are possible from mid-day into late evening. Tornadoes also possible. SPC has kept the Enhanced risk of severe weather expectation for all of Central PA today. They have also added a special (conditional intensity group or CIG) hatching to SErn PA (including areas S & E of Harrisburg. The CIG designation means that tornadoes that do develop in that area could be stronger than just EF0/1. A reasonable maximum intensity of EF2-strength tornadoes is possible today - again, mainly in SE PA. Early showers and even a thunderstorm or two will occur near/along a pair of warm fronts moving north and east through the area this morning and early afternoon. The vort max moving into western PA at 07Z is expected to continue to touch off showers this morning. Some lightning is possible, mainly across the S. There should not be a threat for severe weather until at least late this morning after we can get the clouds and showers away and get some heating/pump up the CAPE. The timing of that vort max and the SHRA/TSRA it helps generate look like they will be early enough in the day that ample heating should then occur as the main warm front pushes into the srn counties and across the CWA late this morning and early this afternoon. As the CAPEs climb, and the wind profiles/hodographs become rounded, the risk for deep convection that would also take advantage of the high helicity to produce supercells increases. This convection could start a couple hours earlier than climatologically-favored timing...more like a noon kickoff than early- to mid-aftn. The risk for discrete, spinning cells is highest over the Lower Susq, but is possible anywhere across the CWA with the warm front(s) and varied boundaries from earlier rain and differential heating playing roles to make the near storm llvl/blyr environment favorable. 70F+ dewpoints will arrive in the S with the first warm front, and the LCLs should be low and favorable for tornado development. The Sig Tor Parameter (STP) is highest over the SE, esp in Lancaster Co. Lower (l-m60s) dewpoints hang on across the N for much of the day. The NW will have the next-best chance for severe storms to develop. However, the increasing moisture and moderate-high shear and moderate-high CAPEs will mean we`ll have to watch all of the CWA for storm initiation in early and mid afternoon. These could also be supercells away from the SE - at least early in the event. The wind profile becomes more-aligned/straight hodographs that would be more favorable for storm clusters or a broken line, esp if a pre-frontal trough materializes.

  4.  

    HERE COMES THE SMOKE 
    Massive wildfires erupted in Ontario & northern Minnesota on Monday.
    NW winds will carry that smoke across the Great Lakes, Northeast, & Mid-Atlantic today & tonight.
    Reduced visibility & degraded air quality may persist through the end of the week.

    https://www.facebook.com/100064725904699/videos/pcb.1458510112983172/1665007804603396

    May be an image of text

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