Met1985

I can understand that for sure. What I don't understand is people thinking this was not advertised in the mid range forecast. Larry has posted some great statistics for a possible snowy February. Tennessee has scored and hopefully the prevailing pattern to come will help us score as a state in whole. I'll state this again looking at op runs after op run will only get you more and more frustrated. We all know that the time period for a significant change back to a much better pattern is going to be around February 8th and then some. So maybe use this time to take a little break and enjoy the weather we have.

For yalls area I do understand your frustration. It is way harder to get snow down yalls way than up here in the mountains. But I still wouldn't completely take your area out of the probability to see some snow this year.

Euro Weeklies. Heading into much better territory. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

The GEPS also agrees on the solution from the 2nd to around the 7th. Again all the ensembles are heading in the right direction. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Also the GEFS agrees. Heading in the right direction. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

On the eps we go from torch on the 2nd to a much better look 5 days later heading in the right direction. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

The indices look like they are heading in the right direction in the mid to long range. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

I have to disagree on that. This winter has been nothing like the last few. Last winter we had what 2 cold spells? One minor snow. Yes snow wise things have been lacking but it's still only January 24th. Temp wise we have done much better. We've seen several weeks and days with below normal temps or near normal temps. Sure We've seen the 33 and rain but we are really close to scoring region wide. This warm.up has been advertised since last month. The weeklies had flipped to a warm January for a few runs then came back down to reality. Sure the weeklies have flipped here a d there but they have been the most stable out of the long range models to date. The eps has also done a great job noting the current pattern. It you watch run to run op solutions you are going to go crazy. Just the fact of things. And now the mjo is showing signs of moving through the warm phases quicker so the actual cool down coming back is moving up at this hour. No can kicking that I can see. No pushing this pattern back at all at this stage.

Yeah you are going to get hammered with rainfall.

For the most part we have been at average or below. We just haven't had a synoptic storm line up. But our friends to the west sure did make out nice. This warm up has been well advertised for over a month. This is not a surprise and people who act like this is a surprise do not follow this hobby well.

2 to 3 weeks yeah. It's a big reset. After the cold we just had I'm not surprised. Everything pulled back to the arctic.

Euro Weeklies and the eps, and the GEFS all look good for a return to a more stable winter pattern around the 8th of February. The Weeklies look really good from the 2nd week of February all the way to the first of March. We are looking at the bigger picture here not individual storms at this point.

Let's do it!

Yep a very nice event after the rainstorm. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Ummm Houston we gone have a problem. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

We've been being preached that we are going to torch for a whole month that never came to fruition. I've talked about pattern recognition with carversgap and Larry on here a couple of times. Sure we will warm up but after the cold We've seen in my opinion that is pretty normal.

Made it down to 0 this morning. Was hoping to at least hit the negatives... Well time for a thaw and a very wet week that will probably cause some flooding concerns.

It's only 8pm and I'm down to 4 already...

Yeah big time snows over here in WNC. One of the best upslope events in a long time.

Yes sir. Let's do this region wide in a few weeks. Hopefully we can get a synoptic storm.

Snowed most of the day up in the mountains. Twas a magical day again.

Larry excellent stuff man. Keep it coming. Love your posts and info big man.

Just got home from the snow adventures today. Current temp down to 7...

Just a freaking stunning day number 2. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Max patch day 2! Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk