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Met1985

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Everything posted by Met1985

  1. Met1985
    Really there is so much energy racing around that we may not get a clear picture of that second system intil like 2 to 3 days from the time it will affect us.
  2. Met1985
    Happy Thanksgiving mountain peeps and everyone else who ventures in our thread. Yes we have a great group here and thankfully we have something to track. I hope everyone has a wonderful day and over eats!
  3. Met1985
    Yep sure does and cold, very cold for this time of the year.
  4. Met1985
    Just a quick glance from both 12z suites from the euro and GFS we would be looking at multiple NW flow opportunities for the mountains. Would be great for the ski resorts.
  5. Met1985
    Ironically I think this may shape up to be a primary upslope event depending on were the low cuts off.
  6. Met1985
    I will say this the teleconnections are jumpy from day to day especially with regards to blocking. Something is happening over the poles and if it transpires we may see a pretty severe outbreak of cold in the early to middle December but that is a big if currently.
  7. Met1985
    Yeah thats a great signal for upslope snow for our area. Im cautiously optimistic.
  8. Met1985
    We have... It was 19 here this morning. We have had warm days but cold nights. Thats how Fall should be.
  9. Met1985
    I was wondering were you went. I knew you posted regularly. Glad you got logged back in.
  10. Met1985
    Yeah its just one run but something I expected to happen. We will see how the rest of todays runs go.
  11. Met1985
    Yeah and at least we have something to track early on. Subtle changes in blocking can make all the difference with these things as you know.
  12. Met1985
    This is just one run though but if this is a trend then we get no storm out of that solution.
  13. Met1985
    Well big changes on the 12z GFS. There is no second storm cutoff. What happens is the primary trough cuts off and this turns into a pretty significant upslope event. The cutoff storm never materializes this run.
  14. Met1985
    Lol thats always the case it seems like. Cold air will be around and we just need the moisture or vice versa.
  15. Met1985
    Yeah the 6z gfs hammers our area especially the southern facing mountains.
  16. Met1985
    Yeah a beautiful cold morning here with a low of 20.
  17. Met1985
    I wouldn't say rock solid just yet. This cutoff is big and can go one way or the other. It is nice we will have a cold source but as you see we have had a lot of jumps here and there in modeling just as the euro has done. Ill be paying close attention to all the models but especially the GFS. One big issue I could see is that cutoff getting stuck west of us... Still its nice to track something.
  18. Met1985
    The 0z gfs is deeper with the trough on the 30s so it brings us a better chance for upslope snow and much colder air. I still would like to get this under 5 days. After that the strange massive cutoff is derper and colder and further east which is good. This would be a significant snowfall verbatim for a large portion of the area for this time of the year. Still that is 10 days out. Proceed with extreme caution. I like seeing this on the GFS though.
  19. Met1985
    Also we are down to 32 degrees already. Beautiful evening.
  20. Met1985
    Im running the pessimistic train for now. The Euro is just not what it used to be in the mid range. Also the telleconnections today looked worst that previous days. But we are 7 to 9 days out like Ward has stated.
  21. Met1985
    As suspected big changes on the euro today which are not good for snow and cold lovers.
  22. Met1985
    33 here this morning. Just some showers that came through overnight.
  23. Met1985
    Really until the GFS gets on board with such a deep trough im very skeptical of it. Like you have noted we have seen this same song and dance before. Lets get under 5 days then I might fully buy in.
  24. Met1985
    I dont trust either one until the GFS jumps in board with that deep of a trough. It looks great but the euro has been playing catchup to the GFS in the middle range now for quite some time. We will see as we get closer to next weekend. Hey us in Haywood should get together one morning for breakfast and talk some weather.
  25. Met1985
    Yeah its going to be a cold rain here. They are calling for 34 and rain here... Hopefully you will see something.
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