Met1985
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Everything posted by Met1985
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Whats interesting is that the southern and central mountains will change from rain to snow first with the way the flow is. I would say higher elevations will change tomorrow between noon and 2 tomorrow afternoon. I think also before the flow really goes NW I think many will see some flakes in the air by tomorrow late afternoon early evening. Then the NW flow will kick in tomorrow night from around 9 to midnight.
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This is really going to favor those prone upslope spots for sure.
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Really im not surprised by this. Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Graham- Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Robbinsville, and Stecoah 257 PM EST Sun Nov 29 2020 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible at high elevations, with event totals of generally 4 to 8 inches, and isolated spots of 12 inches. Valleys and downslope areas may only see 1 to 3 inches total. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of western North Carolina. * WHEN...From Monday morning through Tuesday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.
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Lol possibly. This thing is going to be interesting. We go from cold air wrapping around into the mountains from were the flow is from the sw in the low levels then we change up to a NW flow. This has turned out to be what I expected. Primarily an upslope event.
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Also make no mistake about it. The cold air will be around and is coming. Its just getting moisture and cold to link up over us. Is this any different than other storms? No, this is also very early in the season. Let it play out. There are a lot of moving parts with all this currently.
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Really there is so much energy racing around that we may not get a clear picture of that second system intil like 2 to 3 days from the time it will affect us.
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Happy Thanksgiving mountain peeps and everyone else who ventures in our thread. Yes we have a great group here and thankfully we have something to track. I hope everyone has a wonderful day and over eats!
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Yep sure does and cold, very cold for this time of the year.
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Just a quick glance from both 12z suites from the euro and GFS we would be looking at multiple NW flow opportunities for the mountains. Would be great for the ski resorts.
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Ironically I think this may shape up to be a primary upslope event depending on were the low cuts off.
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I will say this the teleconnections are jumpy from day to day especially with regards to blocking. Something is happening over the poles and if it transpires we may see a pretty severe outbreak of cold in the early to middle December but that is a big if currently.
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December 2020 Medium/Long Term Pattern Discussion.
Met1985 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah thats a great signal for upslope snow for our area. Im cautiously optimistic. -
We have... It was 19 here this morning. We have had warm days but cold nights. Thats how Fall should be.
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I was wondering were you went. I knew you posted regularly. Glad you got logged back in.
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Yeah its just one run but something I expected to happen. We will see how the rest of todays runs go.
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Yeah and at least we have something to track early on. Subtle changes in blocking can make all the difference with these things as you know.
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This is just one run though but if this is a trend then we get no storm out of that solution.
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Well big changes on the 12z GFS. There is no second storm cutoff. What happens is the primary trough cuts off and this turns into a pretty significant upslope event. The cutoff storm never materializes this run.
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Lol thats always the case it seems like. Cold air will be around and we just need the moisture or vice versa.
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Yeah the 6z gfs hammers our area especially the southern facing mountains.
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Yeah a beautiful cold morning here with a low of 20.
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I wouldn't say rock solid just yet. This cutoff is big and can go one way or the other. It is nice we will have a cold source but as you see we have had a lot of jumps here and there in modeling just as the euro has done. Ill be paying close attention to all the models but especially the GFS. One big issue I could see is that cutoff getting stuck west of us... Still its nice to track something.
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The 0z gfs is deeper with the trough on the 30s so it brings us a better chance for upslope snow and much colder air. I still would like to get this under 5 days. After that the strange massive cutoff is derper and colder and further east which is good. This would be a significant snowfall verbatim for a large portion of the area for this time of the year. Still that is 10 days out. Proceed with extreme caution. I like seeing this on the GFS though.
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Also we are down to 32 degrees already. Beautiful evening.
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Im running the pessimistic train for now. The Euro is just not what it used to be in the mid range. Also the telleconnections today looked worst that previous days. But we are 7 to 9 days out like Ward has stated.
