Im giving you my opinion in the way the models have performed in the long range this season. Honestly we could look decent, torch, or in the freezer. We are just seeing a lot of volatility in the models.
Obviously not. We had a warm period before Thanksgiving. We thought we'd torch right through Thanksgiving but no we had a very cold end to November and a cold start to December. We've been well below average for the better part of 3 weeks. So yes we've seen this several times across the board where yes the operational models and the ensembles have performed very poorly in the middle and long range multiple times this season.
If this trough verifies coming up that would mean non of the ensembles caught this outside day 7. Then the pattern again looks to be up and down. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
The 12z gfs rolls the trough up top with a backdoor front but amplifies a ridge out west. Yes this coming week is warm but the pattern does jumble up a bit after that. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
Well looking forward to severe weather this spring. At least yall already know this winter is cooked. No need to look off the side of the cliff. Just jump and enjoy the warm winter.
Some of yall on here actually like we just didn't go through an impressive 3 week cold and some snow stretch. It's comical and im laughing. All you can do. What's the saying. This is the only weather you've got so enjoy it. Something like that.
Taking indicies at face value two weeks out is pretty extreme if I do say. Honestly I'd look for something at the beginning of the new year. The PNA does need to change though. Nice to see Canada in the freezer though. Our cold air source will be there.
I'm saying this season all the models have struggled mightily. All the models have been having a hard time this season. Sure we will see a reshuffle and that will be a good thing I think.
We've seen pattern changes happen abruptly and to say that nothing looks muted is inconsistent with what the models have been going towards the past 24 hours.